Affordable housing: current outlook and challenges for the future Professor Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, University of Cambridge Westminster Social Policy Keynote Seminar Forum,  Implementing the Housing Strategy - affordable rent, social housing and localism   Wednesday, 1st February 2012  Royal Over-Seas League, Park Place, London  

Definitions of affordable housing? Affordability in the marketplace – house prices and rents Assistance required to identified groups in need of a decent home at a price/rent they can afford Initiatives to provide affordable housing for identified groups at sub market rents or prices

Increasing house prices in the UK

Affordability in the market place House prices rising faster than earnings and incomes at least until 2008 Affordability ratios have improved for those who have managed to access home ownership – but many excluded by deposit requirements as well as by uncertainties Rents have been rising faster than inflation and indeed incomes especially in London So both affordability and access problems

Changes in tenure structure 1971 1981 1991 2000 2007 2010 Owner-occupied 51 56 66 69 67 Private rented 19 11 9 10 12 14 Housing Associations -- 2 3 6 Local Authorities 31 30 21 15 Total (m) 23 25 26 27

Owner occupation by age: UK

Increasing tensions in the rented sectors Competition in the private rented sector between those who would traditionally have been in owner-occupation and those further down the income scale in need of government support Long term trends: worsening distribution of income and differentiation between regions/areas Shift away from rental to demand side subsidies Increasing constraints on local housing allowances - also impact of welfare cap Slower turnover in the social sector Inadequate new supply

Trends in new building since 1950

Looking to the future Household projections suggest maybe 230,000 additional households per annum in England Big increases in elderly and lone parent households The vacancy rate in the existing stock is low by international standards, especially in London – though more could be done to match households to dwellings and so reduce overcrowding Estimates of housing need suggest around 250,00 dwellings are required, if standards are to be maintained But no evidence that, even were the market to improve, anything like this number of dwellings can be produced.

2008-Based Projections of Households in England to 2026 2006 2016 2026 (thousands) Couple households 11,394 11,727 12,060 Lone parent households 1,607 2,035 2,495 Other multi-person households 1,318 1,287 1,268 Male one-person households 3,100 3,944 4,787 Female one-person households 3,924 4,614 5,407 All households 21,344 23,608 26,016 Source: 2008-based projection tables made available by DCLG

Newly Arising Demand and Need for Housing in England in 2006 - 2026 Market sector Social sector Total (thousands) Projected net increase in households 3,519 1,154 4,673 Secondary residences 240 Vacant dwellings 115 20 135 Replacement of social sector re-lets “lost” through earlier Right to Buy sale 486 + 486 3,388 1,660 5,048 Annual average 169 83 252 (Homes for the Future annual average) (169) (73) (242) Source: Data on household tenure used in Homes for the Future

Components of Change of the Housing Stock in England 2006 – 07 2007 – 08 2008 – 09 2009 – 10 Average (rounded, thousands) New build completions 193,080 200,300 157,630 124,200 169 Net conversions 7,600 9,020 8,640 6,230 8 Net change of use 20,150 17,640 16,640 13,600 17 Net other gains 460 1,020 270 970 1 Demolitions 22,290 20,500 16,590 16,330 19 Net additional dwellings 198,770 207,370 166,570 128,680 175 Source: Department for Communities and Local Government, Live Table 120

Barriers to Development: the Way Forward Short term: availability of funds for developers and purchasers – both for owner-occupation and for private renting; uncertainty about the future Longer term – loss of capacity in development industry; nature of the industry; planning and land availability; need for equity investment in housing; is there really demand? Government strategy includes: planning reform; contracts for 170,000 new affordable homes by 2015; 100,000 homes on public land; 100,000 95% mortgages; 100,00 additional homes from Right to Buy and 100 plus more initiatives. Will this change the nature of the game?