Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity: www.culturalcognition.net Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity: Two Individual Differences in Politically Motivated Reasoning Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 103 others
Behavioural Public Policy, in press Advances in Pol. Psych. , 38 179-199
“Skin cream experiment”
“Skin cream experiment”
Two conditions
Correct interpretation of data rash decreases rash increases incorrect Numeracy score Lowess regression line.
Covariance & Numeracy Bars denote 0.95 CIs.
“Gun ban experiment”
“Gun ban experiment”
Four conditions
Correct interpretation of data skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Lowess regression line.
Correct interpretation of data skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score Lowess regression line.
Lowess regression line.
Regression model for experiment results rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57) rash increase 0.06 (0.22) crime increase 1.07 (4.02) z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05) z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29) z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05) z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01) z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46) z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14) z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39) z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75) Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02) Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82) z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89) z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40) z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.54 (2.17) z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase 0.26 (1.08) _constant -0.96 (-4.70) N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases 25%, ± 10 skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy 5%, ± 6 rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decrease rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Bounded rationality thesis
Conservative Republican BRT prediction Reality Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican
Conservative Republican BRT prediction Reality Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican
Conservative Republican BRT prediction Reality Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican
Conservative Republican BRT prediction Reality Conservative Republican Adapted from Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change 2, 732-735 (2012).
Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) N = 1600. shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Actively Open-minded Thinking (zscore) N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored barsdenote 0.95 CIs.
Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Cognitive Reflection Test (no. correct) N = 1600. Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Bounded rationality thesis
Advances in Pol. Psych. , 38 179-199
www.culturalcognition.net
State of the art “Science Curiosity”/“curiosity” Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA) I am curious about the world in which we live I find it boring to hear about new ideas I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend I would like to be given a science book as a present I get bored when watching science programs on TV
Sample self-report item
Sample self-report item
Sample (self-report) behavior
Sample (self-report) behavior
Performance measure
“Science Curiosity Scale” (SCS_1.0 ) A little but not closely (item response theory 2PL) .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 probability of pro-curiosity response -3 -2 -1 2 3 science curiosity read book on “scientific research or discoveries” in last yr Read science book in last yr BSCIENCE how closely follow news on “scientific research or discoveries” Not at all very closely A little but not closely closely Science Curiosity Index (SCI) Science Curiosity Index (SCI)
YIF Clip: Origins of color vision
Evolution disbeliever Evolution disbeliever Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers” Evolution believer Evolution believer probability of requesting full show Evolution disbeliever Evolution disbeliever Science Curiosity (percentie) Science Curiosity Logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence
Was the information “believable”?
Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea
Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS
Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Daily Hollywood Rundown
Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS
Study 2 goals & results: Replication & robustness of SCS
WTF? #2: political polarization . . . .
Q. Are “curious” partisans more likely to examine surprising contrary evidence? 1. Unsurprising Nonskeptic vs. Surprising Skeptical 2. Surprising skeptic vs. Unsurprising skeptical
Nonskeptical
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs. unsurprising nonskeptical story 24% (10%, 45%) Liberal Dem. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Parenthetical values represent boundaries of 0.95 CI.
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs. unsurprising nonskeptical story 24% (10%, 45%) 68% (46%, 85%) Liberal Dem. +1 SD science curiosity Liberal Dem. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Parenthetical values represent boundaries of 0.95 CI.
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs. unsurprising nonskeptical story 45% (± 31%) Liberal Dem. +1 SD science curiosity Liberal Dem. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs. surprising nonskeptical story 42% (± 31%) Conserv. Repub. -1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs. surprising nonskeptical story 42% (± 31%) Conserv. Repub. -1 SD science curiosity 62% (± 13%) Conserv. Repub. +1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs. surprising nonskeptical story 20% (± 19%) Conserv. Repub. -1 SD science curiosity Conserv. Repub. +1 SD science curiosity N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) N = 1600. shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Actively Open-minded Thinking (zscore) N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored barsdenote 0.95 CIs.
Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Cognitive Reflection Test (no. correct) N = 1600. Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.
2 big questions:
2 big questions: What next?
2 big questions: What next? Implications for effective science communication?