GUINEA WORM EPIDEMIOLOGY By Alex and Dyumonwledeh

Purpose Build a working STELLA model Learn about the effects of the pond level on the spread of the disease

Scientific Background Parasitic Infection Commonly found in West Africa Ways it is spread: Spread by worm eggs that are eaten by water fleas Drinking infected water Process takes a year Symptoms Blisters Worms in your body

Cycle of Worm

COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH ASSUMPTIONS: That the death rate for people with and without the disease are the same, there is no migration,death rate has no change over time. We used STELLA to show our findings and our computations. We made three seperate populations and linked them to show our final findings

MODEL

RESULTS We found that the variable that effected the outcome the most is the water level. Water level effects the reproduction of the worm therefore effecting the spread of the disease

GRAPH Cyclop's_reproduction_rate = .3 Human_Birth_Rate = .05 Human_death_rate = .02 Infection_rate = .001 Pond_Evaporation_rate = .01 Rainfall_Rate = 0 Recovery__Rate = .45

Graphs

ALL PICTURES

REFERENCES www.broadcast.ohio-state.edu/~parasite/lifecycles/dracunculus_lifecycle.html www.who.int/inf-fs/en/factoas.html www.everest.hunter.cany.edu/~bjt/afr.html www.xena.lsb.sbs.auckland.ac.nz/~pmetcalf/105.352/who/fact098.html STELLA Erin Bell Bob Gotwals