Dan Zarrow Northeast Regional Climate Center Fall 2010

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Presentation transcript:

Dan Zarrow Northeast Regional Climate Center Fall 2010 Extreme Precipitation in New York & New England Background / Methodology Dan Zarrow Northeast Regional Climate Center Fall 2010

Project Background

History of Extreme Precipitation Technical Paper 40 (1961) Wilks (1993) NOAA Atlas 14 (2004) NRCC (2010)

Project Goals Create an updated, comprehensive extreme precipitation atlas for the Northeast US. Match the products and output of NOAA Atlas 14 for NRCS compatability. Add additional products to supplement NRCS hydrologic design. Produce real-time monitoring and climate change tools.

Scope of Data/Output N-minute Hourly Daily 5min 1hr 1day 10min 2hr Years 1yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr 200yr 500yr States Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New York Rhode Island Vermont (surrounding states) (Canada)

Extreme Precip 101

It’s all about probability… 100-yr Storm 1 / 100 = 1% chance of occurrence in any year 25-yr Storm 1 / 25 = 4% chance of occurrence in any year 1-yr Storm 1 / 1 = 100% chance of occurrence???

The Process It rains! Data Collection & Quality Control Distribution Filtering Gridding Smoothing Output

Partial Duration Series Burlington International Airport (#431081) – 1940-2008 (68 complete years) 3.99" 2.42" 2.21" 1.99" 1.85" 1.75" 1.69" 3.62" 2.38" 1.98" 1.83" 1.74" 1.68" 3.59" 2.36" 2.14" 1.96" 3.11" 2.13" 1.94" 1.79" 2.69" 2.32" 2.11" 1.78" 2.60" 2.31" 2.09" 1.92" 2.58" 1.77" 1.73" 2.54" 2.28" 2.05" 1.91" 1.72" 2.48" 2.27" 2.04" 1.9" 1.76" 1.71" 2.46" 2.26" 2.03" 2.24" 2.01" 1.87"

Fitting the Distribution 25yr Storm 3.37” 100yr Storm 4.54”

Partial Duration Series Concord Municipal Airport (#271683) – 1921-2008 (86 complete years) 5.95" 3.30" 2.74" 2.49" 2.42" 2.25" 2.16" 2.04" 5.12" 2.73" 2.48" 2.40" 2.24" 4.37" 3.27" 2.11" 4.12" 3.25" 2.69" 2.47" 2.10" 3.99" 3.22" 2.67" 2.46" 2.23" 2.02" 3.92" 3.02" 2.65" 2.44" 2.09" 2.98" 2.57" 2.43" 2.37" 2.22" 3.84" 2.56" 2.35" 2.21" 2.07" 2.01" 3.71" 2.91" 2.54" 2.34" 2.19" 2.06" 2.00" 3.56" 2.89" 2.51" 2.33" 3.53" 2.79" 2.50" 2.27" 2.18"

Fitting the Distribution 25yr Storm 4.60” 100yr Storm 6.45”

Partial Duration Series Bangor International Airport (#170355) – 1953-2008 (51 complete years) 5.98" 3.23" 2.68" 2.35" 2.17" 5.10" 3.09" 2.66" 2.32" 2.16" 4.68" 3.04" 4.40" 3.03" 2.31" 2.15" 4.08" 2.93" 2.52" 2.28" 2.14" 3.98" 2.89" 2.50" 2.24" 2.12" 3.67" 2.81" 2.49" 2.22" 2.11" 3.55" 2.74" 2.21" 3.53" 2.72" 2.41" 2.20" 3.51" 2.38" 2.18" 3.31" 2.36"

Fitting the Distribution 25yr Storm 4.46” 100yr Storm 6.21”

Partial Duration Series Hartford Bradley International Airport (#063456) – 1949-2008 (59 complete years) 7.70" 4.04" 3.15" 2.90" 2.72" 2.48" 6.27" 3.75" 3.12" 2.70" 2.47" 5.88" 3.68" 3.07" 2.89" 2.67" 5.72" 3.33" 3.06" 2.85" 2.60" 2.46" 5.26" 3.32" 2.99" 2.56" 5.22" 3.31" 2.98" 2.84" 5.10" 3.30" 2.55" 4.81" 3.25" 2.96" 2.78" 2.53" 4.41" 3.22" 2.76" 2.52" 4.31" 3.21" 2.94" 2.73" 2.51" 4.05" 3.19" 2.92"

Fitting the Distribution 25yr Storm 5.93” 100yr Storm 8.68”

Partial Duration Series Providence TF Green Airport (#376698) – 1932-2008 (76 complete years) 6.31" 4.23" 3.38" 3.08" 2.87" 2.76" 2.62" 6.17" 3.95" 3.37" 3.06" 2.86" 2.74" 2.60" 5.43" 3.73" 3.31" 3.04" 2.73" 5.39" 3.62" 3.29" 3.02" 2.85" 5.15" 3.57" 3.28" 2.72" 2.59" 4.78" 3.52" 2.97" 2.82" 2.70" 2.57" 4.75" 3.47" 3.23" 2.92" 2.81" 2.66" 4.71" 3.46" 3.18" 2.91" 2.80" 4.38" 3.15" 2.90" 2.78" 2.64" 2.56" 4.37" 3.42" 3.14" 2.54" 4.30" 3.40" 3.12" 2.77" 2.63"

Fitting the Distribution 25yr Storm 5.36” 100yr Storm 7.40”

Partial Duration Series Boston Logan Internation Airport (#190770) – 1936-2008 (72 complete years) 7.06" 3.84" 3.11" 2.81" 2.64" 2.52" 2.42" 6.11" 3.77" 3.00" 2.80" 2.40" 5.69" 3.58" 2.98" 2.77" 2.63" 2.50" 5.63" 3.51" 2.95" 2.60" 4.88" 3.49" 2.94" 2.76" 2.59" 2.49" 2.39" 4.71" 3.36" 2.91" 2.38" 4.47" 3.34" 2.90" 2.71" 2.58" 2.47" 4.29" 3.32" 2.89" 2.67" 2.55" 2.46" 4.21" 3.31" 2.66" 2.54" 4.12" 3.16" 2.87" 4.00" 3.15" 2.82" 2.53"

Fitting the Distribution 25yr Storm 5.13” 100yr Storm 7.15”

Data

Period of Record From start of record to end of 2008 Must have 20 complete years of data <25% of data record missing

Analysis of Daily Data Used NRCC database to obtain data for 2,070 NOAA Cooperative Network stations in the Northeast. Ran distribution for durations of 1day, 2day, 4day, 7day, and 10day.

Analysis of Hourly Data Obtained historical precipitation data from NCDC hourly dataset for 603 stations in the Northeast. Ran distribution for durations of 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr, 24hr, and 48hr. Calculated 24hr/1day ratio of 1.13, using data from initial Daily analysis. *Same as Atlas14

Analysis of Sub-Hourly Data Used 5-minute data for 30 stations in the Northeast to run distribution for 5min, 10min, 15min, 30min, 60min, and 120min durations. Calculated 60min/1hr ratio of 1.16, using data from Hourly analysis. *Same as Atlas14 Calculated Nmin/60min ratios based on subhourly results.

Analysis of Sub-Hourly Data

Injection of Canadian Data Used NCDC dataset with 649 daily stations in eastern Canada. Ran Beta-P distribution for durations of 1day, 2day, 4day, 7day, and 10day. Used average ratios throughout Northeast US study region to estimate hourly and subhourly return periods.

Quality Control

NRCC QC Process Data is pre-screened by NOAA and climate center staff each month, and flagged if suspect, erroneous, or an accumulated value. Unusually high daily data values are checked against nearby stations. If a daily rainfall value exceeds 10”, at least two nearby stations (within 200 miles) must also have reported amounts of at least 5”. If a daily rainfall value exceeds 5”, at least two nearby stations must also have reported amounts of at least 3”. Hourly precipitation data are checked against corresponding daily data. For each hour's data, at least one nearby station must have recorded a higher daily total rainfall amount. After the distribution is run for the entire Northeast, stations outside more than 2 standard deviations than the mean of all stations are removed.

NRCC QC Process AUTOMATIC Data is pre-screened by NOAA and climate center staff each month, and flagged if suspect, erroneous, or an accumulated value. Unusually high daily data values are checked against nearby stations. If a daily rainfall value exceeds 10”, at least two nearby stations (within 200 miles) must also have reported amounts of at least 5”. If a daily rainfall value exceeds 5”, at least two nearby stations must also have reported amounts of at least 3”. Hourly precipitation data are checked against corresponding daily data. For each hour's data, at least one nearby station must have recorded a higher daily total rainfall amount. After the distribution is run for the entire Northeast, stations outside more than 2 standard deviations than the mean of all stations are removed.

Distribution

PDS vs. AMS Partial Duration Series (PDS) for n years in a station’s record, use the n highest independent rainfall amounts. Annual Maximum Series (AMS) use the highest rainfall amount for each year in a station’s record that has sufficient data.

Partial Duration Series Burlington International Airport (#431081) – 1940-2008 (68 complete years) 3.99" 2.42" 2.21" 1.99" 1.85" 1.75" 1.69" 3.62" 2.38" 1.98" 1.83" 1.74" 1.68" 3.59" 2.36" 2.14" 1.96" 3.11" 2.13" 1.94" 1.79" 2.69" 2.32" 2.11" 1.78" 2.60" 2.31" 2.09" 1.92" 2.58" 1.77" 1.73" 2.54" 2.28" 2.05" 1.91" 1.72" 2.48" 2.27" 2.04" 1.9" 1.76" 1.71" 2.46" 2.26" 2.03" 2.24" 2.01" 1.87"

Burlington International Airport (#431081) – 1940-2008 (68 years) Annual Maximum Series Burlington International Airport (#431081) – 1940-2008 (68 years) 3.99" 2.36" 2.05" 1.83" 1.63" 1.46" 1.26" 3.62" 2.04" 1.79" 1.44" 0.86" 3.59" 2.32" 2.03" 1.77" 1.62" 1.42" 3.11" 2.31" 2.01" 1.41" 2.69" 1.99" 1.75" 1.61" 2.60" 2.28" 1.98" 1.60" 1.40" 2.58" 2.27" 1.94" 1.74" 1.57" 1.38" 2.48" 2.21" 1.92" 1.51" 1.36" 2.46" 1.35" 2.42" 2.13" 1.91" 1.71" 1.32" 2.38" 2.09" 1.87" 1.65" 1.47" 1.27"

Partial Duration Series Concord Municipal Airport (#271683) – 1921-2008 (86 complete years) 5.95" 3.30" 2.74" 2.49" 2.42" 2.25" 2.16" 2.04" 5.12" 2.73" 2.48" 2.40" 2.24" 4.37" 3.27" 2.11" 4.12" 3.25" 2.69" 2.47" 2.10" 3.99" 3.22" 2.67" 2.46" 2.23" 2.02" 3.92" 3.02" 2.65" 2.44" 2.09" 2.98" 2.57" 2.43" 2.37" 2.22" 3.84" 2.56" 2.35" 2.21" 2.07" 2.01" 3.71" 2.91" 2.54" 2.34" 2.19" 2.06" 2.00" 3.56" 2.89" 2.51" 2.33" 3.53" 2.79" 2.50" 2.27" 2.18"

Concord Municipal Airport (#271683) – 1921-2008 (87 years) Annual Maximum Series Concord Municipal Airport (#271683) – 1921-2008 (87 years) 5.95" 3.30" 2.50" 2.40" 2.09" 1.97" 1.70" 1.44" 5.12" 2.48" 2.06" 1.94" 1.63" 4.37" 3.27" 2.47" 2.37" 2.04" 1.92" 1.43" 4.12" 3.25" 2.46" 2.33" 2.02" 1.90" 1.62" 3.99" 3.22" 2.44" 2.25" 1.87" 1.42" 3.92" 2.98" 2.43" 2.22" 1.86" 1.55" 1.39" 2.89" 2.42" 2.19" 2.01" 1.85" 1.54" 1.35" 3.84" 2.79" 2.18" 2.00" 1.82" 1.52" 1.31" 3.71" 2.73" 2.16" 1.99" 1.81" 1.50" 1.30" 3.56" 2.65" 1.98" 1.48" 1.29" 3.53" 2.56" 1.80" 1.45"

Partial Duration Series Bangor International Airport (#170355) – 1953-2008 (51 complete years) 5.98" 3.23" 2.68" 2.35" 2.17" 5.10" 3.09" 2.66" 2.32" 2.16" 4.68" 3.04" 4.40" 3.03" 2.31" 2.15" 4.08" 2.93" 2.52" 2.28" 2.14" 3.98" 2.89" 2.50" 2.24" 2.12" 3.67" 2.81" 2.49" 2.22" 2.11" 3.55" 2.74" 2.21" 3.53" 2.72" 2.41" 2.20" 3.51" 2.38" 2.18" 3.31" 2.36"

Bangor International Airport (#170355) – 1953-2008 (52 years) Annual Maximum Series Bangor International Airport (#170355) – 1953-2008 (52 years) 5.98" 2.89" 2.31" 1.94" 1.74" 5.10" 2.81" 2.28" 1.92" 4.68" 2.72" 2.20" 1.89" 1.63" 3.98" 2.68" 2.16" 1.86" 1.52" 3.67" 2.14" 3.55" 2.66" 2.09" 1.51" 3.51" 2.08" 1.82" 1.47" 3.23" 2.50" 1.81" 1.35" 3.09" 2.38" 2.02" 3.03" 2.36" 2.01" 1.79" 2.93" 2.32" 1.95" 1.75"

Partial Duration Series Hartford Bradley International Airport (#063456) – 1949-2008 (59 complete years) 7.70" 4.04" 3.15" 2.90" 2.72" 2.48" 6.27" 3.75" 3.12" 2.70" 2.47" 5.88" 3.68" 3.07" 2.89" 2.67" 5.72" 3.33" 3.06" 2.85" 2.60" 2.46" 5.26" 3.32" 2.99" 2.56" 5.22" 3.31" 2.98" 2.84" 5.10" 3.30" 2.55" 4.81" 3.25" 2.96" 2.78" 2.53" 4.41" 3.22" 2.76" 2.52" 4.31" 3.21" 2.94" 2.73" 2.51" 4.05" 3.19" 2.92"

Annual Maximum Series Hartford Bradley International Airport (#063456) – 1949-2008 (60 complete years) 7.70" 3.31" 2.92" 2.55" 2.14" 1.54" 5.88" 3.30" 2.90" 2.51" 2.09" 1.51" 5.72" 3.22" 2.47" 1.85" 5.26" 3.21" 2.89" 2.46" 1.83" 1.49" 5.22" 3.19" 2.85" 2.42" 1.81" 5.10" 3.12" 2.84" 2.36" 1.80" 4.81" 3.07" 2.73" 4.31" 2.99" 2.70" 2.29" 1.79" 4.05" 2.98" 2.67" 2.24" 1.67" 4.04" 2.96" 2.60" 2.20" 1.66" 3.33" 2.94" 2.56" 2.16" 1.60"

Partial Duration Series Providence TF Green Airport (#376698) – 1932-2008 (76 complete years) 6.31" 4.23" 3.38" 3.08" 2.87" 2.76" 2.62" 6.17" 3.95" 3.37" 3.06" 2.86" 2.74" 2.60" 5.43" 3.73" 3.31" 3.04" 2.73" 5.39" 3.62" 3.29" 3.02" 2.85" 5.15" 3.57" 3.28" 2.72" 2.59" 4.78" 3.52" 2.97" 2.82" 2.70" 2.57" 4.75" 3.47" 3.23" 2.92" 2.81" 2.66" 4.71" 3.46" 3.18" 2.91" 2.80" 4.38" 3.15" 2.90" 2.78" 2.64" 2.56" 4.37" 3.42" 3.14" 2.54" 4.30" 3.40" 3.12" 2.77" 2.63"

Providence TF Green Airport (#376698) – 1932-2008 (77 complete years) Annual Maximum Series Providence TF Green Airport (#376698) – 1932-2008 (77 complete years) 6.31" 4.23" 3.28" 2.85" 2.54" 2.23" 1.95" 6.17" 3.95" 3.23" 2.78" 2.22" 1.92" 5.43" 3.73" 3.15" 2.76" 2.51" 2.20" 5.39" 3.62" 3.14" 2.73" 2.45" 2.17" 1.88" 5.15" 3.57" 3.12" 2.72" 2.12" 1.87" 4.78" 3.47" 3.06" 2.70" 2.42" 1.86" 4.75" 3.46" 3.04" 2.66" 2.11" 1.74" 4.71" 3.38" 2.97" 2.64" 2.35" 2.10" 1.70" 4.38" 3.37" 2.91" 2.59" 2.31" 2.07" 1.61" 4.37" 3.29" 2.90" 2.57" 2.27" 2.05" 1.57" 4.30" 2.86" 2.25" 1.96" 1.51"

Partial Duration Series Boston Logan Internation Airport (#190770) – 1936-2008 (72 complete years) 7.06" 3.84" 3.11" 2.81" 2.64" 2.52" 2.42" 6.11" 3.77" 3.00" 2.80" 2.40" 5.69" 3.58" 2.98" 2.77" 2.63" 2.50" 5.63" 3.51" 2.95" 2.60" 4.88" 3.49" 2.94" 2.76" 2.59" 2.49" 2.39" 4.71" 3.36" 2.91" 2.38" 4.47" 3.34" 2.90" 2.71" 2.58" 2.47" 4.29" 3.32" 2.89" 2.67" 2.55" 2.46" 4.21" 3.31" 2.66" 2.54" 4.12" 3.16" 2.87" 4.00" 3.15" 2.82" 2.53"

Annual Maximum Series Boston Logan Internation Airport (#190770) – 1936-2008 (73 complete years) 7.06" 3.51" 2.90" 2.63" 2.36" 2.13" 1.81" 6.11" 3.49" 2.89" 2.59" 2.34" 2.11" 1.75" 5.69" 3.34" 2.82" 2.33" 2.10" 1.73" 5.63" 3.32" 2.77" 2.54" 2.05" 1.71" 4.71" 3.15" 2.76" 2.32" 2.04" 1.65" 4.29" 3.11" 2.52" 2.29" 2.00" 1.48" 4.21" 3.00" 2.66" 2.26" 1.99" 4.12" 2.98" 2.64" 2.49" 2.25" 1.90" 4.00" 2.95" 2.46" 2.19" 1.87" 3.84" 2.94" 2.15" 1.84" 3.58" 2.91" 2.40"

Selecting a Distribution Wilks,D.S., 1993: Comparison of three-parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation series, Water Resources Research, 29, 3543-3549.

Selecting a Distribution Wilks,D.S., 1993: Comparison of three-parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation series, Water Resources Research, 29, 3543-3549.

Filtering

Spatial Interpolation and Smoothing It became clear we needed to smooth our Beta-P results based on Distance to Nearby Stations and the Period of Record of Nearby Stations. From the August 2004 Journal of Hydrology: “Regionalization of extreme precipitation estimated for the Alabama rainfall atlas” (Durrans & Kirby)

Regionalization Demonstration Tully, NY 1day 100yr: 5.95” Distance: 28 miles Record Len.: 40 yrs. Auburn, NY 1day 100yr: 4.89” Distance: 33 miles Record Len.: 93 yrs. Ithaca, NY 1day 100yr: 5.58” Ithaca, NY Estimate 1day 100yr: 5.30” Elmira, NY 1day 100yr: 5.45” Distance: 31 miles Record Len.: 114 yrs. Binghamton, NY 1day 100yr: 5.46” Distance: 29 miles Record Len.: 61 yrs.

NRCC QC Process AUTOMATIC Data is pre-screened by climate center staff each month, and flagged if suspect, erroneous, or an accumulated value. Unusually high daily data values are checked against nearby stations. If a daily rainfall value exceeds 10”, at least two nearby stations (within 200 miles) must also have reported amounts of at least 5”. If a daily rainfall value exceeds 5”, at least two nearby stations must also have reported amounts of at least 3”. Hourly precipitation data are checked against corresponding daily data. For each hour's data, at least one nearby station must have recorded a higher daily total rainfall amount. After the distribution is run for the entire Northeast, stations outside more than 2 standard deviations than the mean of all stations are removed.

Quality Control – Last Step Any stations outside 2 standard deviations IGNORED. Any stations outside ± 2.25” IGNORED. 51 stations ignored 17 stations ignored

Gridding

Smoothing

Raw Data

Gridded Data

Smoothed Data

Final Output

Confidence Intervals

Confidence Intervals Approach Monte Carlo Approach Draw 1,000 x-year samples from fit Beta-P distribution at each station. Refit Beta-P based on random samples. Compute return period amounts for confidence intervals (90%) Analogous to Atlas14’s approach

Climate Change

Extreme Precip in a Changing Climate U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009. Global climate change impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report. Cambridge [England]: Cambridge University Press.

Extreme Precip in a Changing Climate DeGaetano, Arthur T., 2009: Time-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 2086–2099.

Extreme Precip in a Changing Climate DeGaetano, Arthur T., 2009: Time-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 2086–2099.

Extreme Precip in a Changing Climate Example: Reagan Airport, DC (#448906) 1 day duration Beta-P distribution 79 years of record through 2008 through 2000 through 2008 1-yr 2.46” 2.58” 2-yr 2.65” 2.78” 5-yr 3.53” 3.76” 10-yr 4.39” 4.73” 25-yr 5.85” 6.39” 50-yr 7.28” 8.03” 100-yr 9.05” 10.09” 200-yr 11.25” 12.68” 500-yr 15.00” 17.15”

Sample Changing Climate Product: Percent Difference Maps

Sample Changing Climate Product: Comparison Chart

Daily Monitoring

Project Timeline Jan 2009 Project start Apr 2009 Sub-daily analysis, Hourly analysis, Comparison between NRCC results and Atlas14 Jul 2009 Daily analysis, Multi-daily analysis, Gridding and smoothing processes, Develop isohyetal maps Oct 2009 Compute confidence intervals, Intensity frequency duration curves, Site-specific distribution curves, Atlas14-like data files Jan 2010 Beta version of web site to allow for user feedback and testing Apr 2010 Software for real-time monitoring, Modifications from beta testing July 2010 Finalize web site, Technical documentation and users guide Oct 2010 Beta version of real-time monitoring web site, Complete documentation Jan 2011 Finalize real-time monitoring site

Taking It to the Web

Lots of Data 430,243,488 data values packed into a file using HDF5 architecture (~2.66 gigabytes) plus 486 GIS ASCII raster files (~6.33 gigabytes) and 3,888 state and regional maps (~0.5 gigabytes)