Barbaros Yet1, Zane Perkins2, Nigel Tai3, William Marsh2

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Presentation transcript:

A Framework to Present Bayesian Networks to Domain Experts and Potential Users Barbaros Yet1, Zane Perkins2, Nigel Tai3, William Marsh2 1Hacettepe University 2Queen Mary University of London 3The Royal London Hospital 01/09/2014

Similarities between Clinical and Legal BN Models Users wants to understand a BN model before using it Different BN structures for alternative world views: Legal: Different stories (BN structures) of what happened Clinical: Different understanding (BN structures) of how diseases work

Clinical Models of Alternative World Views

Models from Prosecution and Defense

Similarities between Clinical and Legal BN Models Users wants to understand a BN model before using it Different BN structures of alternative world views: Legal: Different stories (BN structures) of what happened Clinical: Different understanding (BN structures) of how diseases work Limited (relevant) data to learn the NPTs Critical outcomes

Bayesian Networks Graphical structure Suitable for modelling our causal understanding of the domain Relations (CIs) are clearer Is that enough? 01/09/2014

Our Vision Clear BN models that can be browsed, reviewed, criticised and modified by domain experts and users. 01/09/2014

Framework to Present Bayesian Networks Aims: Organise the data about the knowledge, definitions and assumptions of a BN, and evidence supporting them. Present the BN in a clear and user-friendly way. Clinical Evidence Framework 01/09/2014

Clinical Evidence vs. Legal Evidence in BNs Legal Evidence: Observations entered to BN Clinical Evidence: Knowledge (publications, data and expert knowledge) supporting or conflicting with the BN structure

Clinical Evidence Framework 01/09/2014

Clinical Evidence Framework – Structure OWL BN Model 01/09/2014

Structure

Fragment (Objects) Description Elements

Node Description States Where do numbers come from? Evidence Excluded Parents, Excluded Children, Excluded Relation

Edge (Relation) Has supporting evidence Has conflicting evidence

Source Every clinical evidence has a source Data Publication Domain Experts

OWL A flexible database structure to Define, Modify, Query a database

Clinical Evidence Framework - Browser 01/09/2014 www.traumamodels.com/atcbn/

Acute Traumatic Coagulopathy (ATC)

Completeness Queries Review evidence Variables / edges with/without evidence SPARQL SELECT DISTINCT ?x WHERE{ ?x a :Edge. ?x :hasSupportingEvidence ?evidence.} MINUS{ ?x :hasSupportingEvidence ?evidence.}} 01/09/2014

Thanks! Yet B, Perkins ZB, Tai NR, and Marsh DWR (2016). “Clinical Evidence Framework for Bayesian Networks” Knowledge and Information Systems DOI:10.1007/s10115-016-0932-1 http://www.github.com/byet/BNEvidenceBase/ 01/09/2014