Impact and vulnerability assessment in Poland Prof. Maciej Sadowski Institute of Environmental Protection Warsaw, Poland

Rationale behind undertaking studies on adaptation increasing frequency of extreme events droughts, floods, storms and heavy showers, reduced agricultural production , water shortage , rising of the Baltic Sea level

Studies on climate impact and vulnerability Started several years ago and covered three sectors : water management, coastal zone, and agriculture Analisys based on several GCM models and IPCC scenarios

Water management Annual runoff changes will probably be insignificant, seasonal changes are crucial increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall decrease in runoff of most rivers as well as soil moisture in summer months, increase the probability of flooding.

Water management cont. High variability of precipitation and increased consumption of water will cause shortfalls of water availability. Water deficit will be particularly significant in Central Poland and may rise by 23% in 2020 and up to 30% in 2050.

Soil overdrying/desertification

Coastal zone Over 2400 sq km of coastal area and over 244 000 people will be affected by increased sea level. The Odra River mouth and adjacent lowlands will be affected by sea water inundation. The Hel Peninsula could be divided into separate islands

Coastal zone cont. Full protection of the Polish coastal zone should include : the protection of the industrialized and densely populated regions of Szczecin and Gdansk-Elbląg areas Construction approx 120 to 300 km new dikes and reconstruction of 243 to 324 km of existing dikes, and 1 km of offshore breakwaters Protection of the Odra River estuary and Wistula delta through the preservation of polders

Agriculture Mostly negative changes in food production are expected: Reduction of potato yield (by 30-80%) Reduction of cereal yield by approx.15% Increased cost of husbandry (air-conditioning, water supply, and disease control). Decrease of total agriculture production from 5 to 25% and significant inter-annual variation of yields. The impact of climate change on agriculture depends significantly on local conditions

Agriculture cont. Positive impact: Extension of the length of the growing period up to 3 weeks. Favorable conditions for thermophilous plant production (corn, soyabean, oilseed sunflower, and others). Increase of biomass production by approx.30% owing to more intensive photosynthesis. Increase of husbandry production (due to increased biomass production). depends largely on access to sufficient amounts of fresh water.

Agriculture-case study Regional programe of adaptation in the north-eastern region of Poland. Analysis of individual farms of different sizes and types of production. Main production: milk and meat

ICTP scenario 2070-2100 yields Potato Winter wheat

Agriculture -case study Assumptions: Assure in 70-ties current level of milk and meat production Future agrotechnological progress not considered Main actors – individual farmers

Agriculture case study - indicators Climate Temperature (mean, sum and extereme) Precipitation (sum and frequency of showers) Soil moisture Radiation (total) Impact Plant yields index Water needs Stability of farms

Indicators cont. Adaptation Area of arable lands and pastures necessary to assure current production of milk and meat in 2070-ties Number of farms with different production needed in 70-ties

Case study - conclusions Total area of arable land is sufficient to assure future production of milk and meat on current level wheras area of pastures should be increased by 10-50% Crucial role of spatial planning Improve monitoring system of local impact of cc Strenghten training system to increase awareness of farmers and local authorieties

Research Participation in the EU projects inter alia: National: ASTRA, CECILIA, ADAGIO, ACCENT, National: Natural Hazards and Exteme Events Climate Change impact on economy (mainly water management) Adaptation of individual farms to changing climate

Next steps White paper stimulates Government to undertake activities to elaborate national strategy Decision was taken by the Minsiter of Environment to elaborate adaptation strategy National strategy will creates framework for regional, and sectoral strategies, Adaptation policies and measures will be included into relevant sectoral and socio-economic policies