Intermountain West Data Warehouse – Western Air Quality Study (IWDW-WAQS) A Web System Application Framework for use of Remote Sensing Obs in Air Quality Planning Tom Moore WESTAR-WRAP tmoore@westar.org

Databases Websites Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS/ARD Federal Land Manager Environmental Database (FED) Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Websites Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse (IWDW) Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

Database Website Software Hardware Databases Schema design Data import & update Administration Query design Relational database: 800,000,000 records 62 air quality networks 63 water quality networks 24 modeling and satellite datasets NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Database Website Software Hardware File server: ~107 Terabytes of online data ~100 Terabytes of offline data ~85 Terabytes downloaded/transferred 7 complete modeling platforms Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

Databases Website Software Hardware Website design Web hosting Tool development Web services NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Website Software Hardware Websites: FED SEMAP IWDW NPSCAT TSS IMPROVE Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

Databases Websites Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Websites Software Hardware Software Data access libraries Data manipulation Visualization tools Data analysis Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

Databases Websites Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Websites Software Hardware Hardware Server configuration Server maintenance Networking Troubleshooting & repair Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

Databases Websites Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database (FED) Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Websites Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse (IWDW) Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

Database Websites Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database (FED) Partners: NPS, USFS Database Websites Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN http://views.cira.colostate.edu/fed

Database Website Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Database Website Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN http://views.cira.colostate.edu/semap

Database Website Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Database Website Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse (IWDW) Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN http://views.cira.colostate.edu/iwdw

IWDW-WAQS nested 36/12/4-km WRF/CAMx and CMAQ domains

Database Website Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS/ARD Federal Land Manager Environmental Database Partners: NPS, USFS Database Website Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/data/products/parks/index.cfm

Databases Websites Software Hardware NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools (nps.gov) Partners: NPS/ARD Federal Land Manager Environmental Database (FED) Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Websites Software Hardware Intermountain West Data Warehouse (IWDW) Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

NASA ROSES 2007: Decision Support through Earth Science Research Results Improving an Air Quality Decision Support System through the Integration of Satellite Data with Ground-based, Modeled, and Emissions Data Uma Shankar (UNC) and Shawn McClure (CIRA/CSU) - co-PIs Many collaborators, including Bret Schichtel (NPS) & Tom Moore (WESTAR-WRAP) at CIRA Completed May 2011

Simplified, CIRA-specific project goal Make it easier to… find visualize query download …satellite and modeled data in conjunction with ground-based data

Fulfilling our goal: Getting the data – circa 2011

Fulfilling our goal: Getting the data – going forward

Other, Emerging Remote Sensing Platforms Fulfilling our goal: Getting the data – into the future Other, Emerging Remote Sensing Platforms

Fulfilling our goal: Importing and integrating the data

Discovery, retrieval, and exchange of data and metadata VIEWS/TSS (now IWDW) Interoperability: Services and standards “Interoperability”: The ability of diverse systems and organizations to work together to exchange and utilize information. To facilitate, VIEWS and now IWDW offers the following services and features: Discovery, retrieval, and exchange of data and metadata On-the-fly transformation and formatting of data and metadata Upload and management of user-supplied data and metadata Generation of visualization and analysis products Availability of “embeddable” components and tools Support of OGC web standards for spatial data exchange

NAAQS Implementation and Maintenance Exceptional Events Data for future infrastructure and transport SIPs Exceptional Events Develop technical support data and analysis protocols Implementation of Regional Haze SIPs Identify and execute technical work needed for 201821 plans Needs of sub-regional groups of states Currently oil and gas, fire Similar efforts in past – dust, BART, other topics WRAP Board of Directors Technical Steering Committee Work Groups Project Teams WRAP Staff

Several other modeling efforts boundary/background by others Modeling of U.S. Background / Boundary Conditions: MOZART GEOS-Chem (AM3, others) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Observations vs. Boundary Condition / Background Monthly Mean MDA8 Ozone Animations of Modeled Daily Max Concentrations Background contribution Difference plots for background minus U.S. sources O3, NOx, CO, PM2.5 Animations of Daily Max Concentrations - Ozone , SO4, and Dust Boundary Tracers Boundary conditions plots: O3, Ox (O3+NO+NO2+PAN) Coarse Dust (CCRS), Fine PM (FPRM+FCRS) Data Warehouse and Modeling Center http://views.cira.colostate.edu/tsdw/ Several other modeling efforts boundary/background by others

next WAQS base & projection years’ modeling platform Immediate future - Modeling Platform Development Elements 2014 base case emissions, met domain expansion 2014 NEIv1 and “best available” quasi-natural emissions O&G comprehensive update north-south from AZ-NM to MT-ND basins Met modeling at 4km for same north-south area and east-west KS-CO to UT-NV 2014 Global Models’ evaluation and assessment Use as CONUS regional model boundary conditions PM, Ozone, other species Develop and document evaluation methods 2014 base case air quality modeling /evaluation Apply criteria used in earlier IWDW-WAQS evaluations Transfer files to IWDW, completeness and error check by re-run Option for 2015/16 years – lighter base year modeling effort on inputs / evaluation Future projection years Anthropogenic emissions – 2023, 2028, other? Quasi-natural emissions – scenarios for biogenics, fire, ammonia, et cetera Option for modified future met based on climate change scenarios Future years’ air quality modeling runs Evaluate with MATS and pending Regional Haze reasonable progress goals Serve as “No-Action” alternatives as inputs to NEPA studies

Background O3 Scientific Assessment Denver, March 28-29, 2017 Workshop High ozone day in southern California High ozone day in Gothic, Colorado Photo of LA smog from citiesspeak.org High ozone day in western U.S.

Sources of O3 in the Western U.S. O3 Source Meteorological Characteristics Chemical characteristics CAA Controllable Local photochemical buildup Stagnation, high temperatures. CO/NOx/VOCs/PM consistent with local sources Y Regional transport (domestic sources) Regional transport from major source regions (e.g., California) - currently not well characterized CO/NOy/VOCs consistent with upwind sources + chemistry Upper trop/Lower strat intrusions (UTLS) Post-cold front Broad spatial distribution (high O3 in non-urban areas) Very dry air. N Very long-range transport (VLRT) Important at higher elevation. Subsidence and mixing into the boundary layer can enhance local concentrations. Dry. Can be hard to distinguish from UTLS without good chemical data. Wildfire smoke Warm. Can be stagnant or not. Can be regional or large distant fires. Chemistry complex & different from typical urban. O3 enhancements not always seen. O3-PM often poorly correlated. PM/CO/NOy always well correlated and ratios very different from typical urban.

Definitions U.S. background O3 (USBO): O3 formed from all natural sources plus anthropogenic sources in countries outside the U.S., plus methane impacts. North American Background (NAB) is defined as O3 formed from all natural sources plus anthropogenic sources in countries outside North America, plus methane impacts. USB and NAB must be determined using chemical transport models or source apportionment. Baseline O3: O3 measured at relatively remote sites that have little or no recent influence from US domestic emissions. Non-Controllable O3 sources (NCOS): These are sources of O3, or its precursors, that could not be reasonably controlled by domestic legislation. Examples of NCOS are intrusions of stratospheric air or emissions from wildfires. All of the terms above can be expressed as seasonal, monthly or daily means, maximum daily 8-hour averages (MDA8) or using other statistical metrics.

BOSA Core Team Prof. Dan Jaffe (University of Washington) Dr. Owen Cooper (University of Colorado / NOAA ESRL) Prof. Arlene Fiore (Columbia University) Dr. Barron Henderson (EPA OAQPS) Prof. Daven Henze (University of Colorado) Dr. Andrew Langford (NOAA-ESRL) Dr. Meiyun Lin (Princeton University / NOAA GFDL) Dr. Gail Tonnesen (EPA Region 8) Prof. Ted Russell (Georgia Institute of Technology) Mr. Tom Moore (WESTAR-WRAP) Our goal is submission of critical review paper to EST or other journal by end of Summer 2017.

Goals for the Denver Workshop Provide a forum for broader input to the assessment from all knowledgeable experts; Provide a forum for discussion of key uncertainties; Identify new methods and tools that the core group might not be aware of; Identify specific scientific publications that we may have missed; Make specific recommendations for future research that the committee should consider. Approximately 150 participants (~50% in-person/~50% online) 18 oral presentations + handful of posters Extensive time for discussion.

Area Burned for U.S. Wildfires (NIFC) The last decade has seen a significant increase in the area burned. Approximately 70% of these fires are in the Western U.S.

Western Class 1 area Environment Alaska and Hawaii at reduced scale PRELIMINARY DESIGN VALUE by COUNTY* (using AQS data 2013-2015) > PM 2.5 2012 Standard > Ozone 2015 Standard > Both PM 2.5 and Ozone Standards * Based on monitor with highest value in county Class 1 area This slide puts the western Class 1 Area locations into context with the potential PM2.5 and ozone non-attainment areas across the country. Please note that NAAQS data is from preliminary 2013-2015 AQS data using the county as the smallest mapping unit. The non-WESTAR states, shaded in gray, have fewer Class 1 Areas. Most of the eastern regions also have existing funded modeling centers, established to address prior non-attainment area modeling. As the NAAQS standards are strengthened, more western states will need to do regional planning and modeling and find the resources to support new work. Western region characterized by complex terrain, several climactic zones, oceanic and international source transport, dispersed population centers, large land mass, mix of nonattainment areas, unique geologic sources

State and federal cooperators – IWDW-WAQS Acknowledgements State and federal cooperators – IWDW-WAQS Gail Tonnesen and Rebecca Matichuk, EPA R8 Shawn McClure & Rodger Ames, CIRA Ralph Morris and colleagues, Ramboll-Environ Zac Adelman and colleagues, UNC