Emerging Market Financing Outlook Hung Tran October 2002

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Presentation transcript:

Emerging Market Financing Outlook Hung Tran October 2002 Deputy Director International Capital Markets Department October 2002

Emerging Market Financing (Billions of US dollars)

Cumulative Gross Annual Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity (Billions of US dollars) 1997 2000 2001 1999 1998 2002

Sovereign Spreads (basis points) Brazil (right scale) EMBI+ Russia Mexico

Return Performance Q1-Q3 2002 EMBI+ EMBI+ non-Latin US High Yield US High Grade US 10 yr Treasury EM Free S&P 500 Nasdaq Eurotop 300 Topix - 0.3% + 14.9% - 7.3% + 8.4% + 15.4% - 16.2% - 29.0% - 39.9% - 35.1% - 10.8%

EMBI+ Volatility (30-day rolling)

Average Correlations of Emerging Debt Markets (30-day rolling) Average correlation of Argentina, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela with Brazil Average cross correlation of emerging debt credits