FALL OF THE SYSTEM.

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Presentation transcript:

FALL OF THE SYSTEM

A New Cold War? MAD Crises Germany Dr. Strangelove Mutual Assured Destruction War by accident or mistake Crises Cuban missiles, 1962 Able Archer, 1983 Germany Soviet garrison, 340,000 men Frontline divisions

Reagan - Gorbachev Reagan I, 1980-83 Reagan II, 1984-88 Evil Empire, massive rearmament Reagan II, 1984-88 Annual summits, confidence, end Cold War Role of individuals Who could trust the other side? Reagan, no threat from the right Gorbachev, power plus ambition

USSR Doomed to Fail? Economic crisis Nationalism External threat Muddle through Nationalism Massive repression (Tiananmen) External threat Star Wars, nuclear/conventional parity Oil price boom Putin - Gorbachev

Mikhail Gorbachev Moral Political Economic Glasnost, rights, refuse violence Political Elections, institutions, pluralism? Social democrat? Economic Reforms within system Prices, property, capital markets?

Tragedy? Create expectations Trigger opposition Economic crisis Material improvement, freedom, independence Trigger opposition Vested interests, ideological convictions Economic crisis Material hardship, reforms discredited Personal guilt? Collapse of the USSR Cf. Boris Yeltsin

Spillover effects Baltic republics Central Europe China Popular fronts, support perestroika Sovereignty, independence MRP, human chain, 1988 Central Europe Reagan in Moscow 1988, end Cold War Brezhnev doctrine – Sinatra doctrine China Tiananmen, June-89 Different reaction

Velvet Revolutions, 1989 Poland Hungary GDR Czechoslovakia Solidarity, roundtable, elections Hungary May, open border to Austria Tourists from the GDR, Trabants, embassies GDR Gorbachev October 7 (40th anniversary) Berlin Wall opens November 9 Czechoslovakia November 17, ten days ...

Germany Unification Resistance Promises to Gorbachev Outcome 2+4, GDR population mass flight Resistance France and Britain Promises to Gorbachev NATO not one inch ... Outcome Mitterrand gets to print Deutschmarks Kohl gets speedy unification

Endgame Collapse of the USSR War in the Balkans China emerges Yeltsin-Gorbachev Russia v. USSR War in the Balkans Europe divided US reluctant intervention China emerges Economic success Political future?

Questions Failure of transition Institutional transfer/transplants Big bang, shock therapy Institutional transfer/transplants State building, economic transformation Goals of the exercise Transition from communism To what – and how? Global financial crisis US and EU as role models? Nationalism, developmental states