The Unequal Impact of the Great Recession on the Instructional Capacity of Rural Schools John W. Sipple, PhD & Yuan Yao Development Sociology & Operations Research Cornell University Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Rural Sociological Society Madison, WI August 7, 2015

Background facts In the U.S., we spend nearly $600 Billion/anum to educate nearly 50 million children at an average cost of $12,000 per student. $6K in Utah, $19K in NY Instructional costs are the largest proportion of school budgets accounting for 72% of budgets.

Two companion papers U.S. version with 7 states Comparative version with select U.S. States and Scotland/Ireland

Average School District Budget

Research Questions How does school district instructional capacity* vary between and within states? In Rural communities? Did the Great Recession reduce or exacerbate such differences in capacity? Rural advantage or disadvantage? To answer these, we analyze pre- and post recession patterns of staffing within and across state, location and community demography? * Capacity as defined by the core functioning of schools (i.e., Instructional Staffing Levels).

Federal Recession-Motivated Program Allocations by State.

District-Level Teachers, Enrollment and Ratios from 2005/6 to 2011/12

Time-series regression modeling of Teacher FTEs.

Time-series regression modeling of Teacher FTEs.

Time-series regression modeling of Teacher FTEs.

Time-series regression modeling of Teacher FTEs.

Takeaways We found substantial differences within and between states in absolute staffing levels, relative staffing levels in rural vs non-rural districts, and impact of the recession of 2008. This study highlights the importance of individual state analyses and the need to avoid broad national claims and trends. There is not a single story, a single impact, or a single interaction between rural location, year, and staffing levels. But within specific states (e.g., in IA, KS, NY, PA, and TX) we find examples of relative underinvestment in rural schools while relative overinvestment in AR and CA. We find variation in the year in which schools “felt” the impact of the recession through staffing reductions with TX experiencing the longest lag in the effect.

Scottish Staffing Ratios by UCL (2005-2014)

Scotland - Regression Model