Quick Start Expectations Fill in planner and HWRS HW: WDYE p. 18-22 #9-10, 24-25 Get a signature on HWRS On desk: journal, toolkit, packet, calculator, HWRS, bin Warm Up: On your VOCABULARY TOOLKIT, record the definitions (pg. 12) for: Probability experimental probability Trial favorable outcome

p. 12 Vocab toolkit

Probability Probability: Mathematical term for chance. Experimental Probability: A probability found by conducting an experiment and collecting data. What actually happens. Requires action! Favorable Outcomes: Trials in which the desired results occur Notation: We write probability as P(heads) = “The probability of the coin landing on heads is…” Relative Frequency: Ratio of number of desired results over the total number of trials Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes Example: If the experiment is tossing a coin, the sample space is the set {H,T}. Vocab toolkit

Probability Continued… In Monday’s experiment we tossed a coin. Suppose the coin landed on heads 7 out of the 10 trials. Express this outcome using mathematical notation P(head) = 7 10 - Notice we wrote… total # of trials P(event) = favorable outcome

P (match) = P (no match) =

P (match) = P (no match) = B. Whole Class Findings: Group No Match B. Whole Class Findings: 1. What are the experimental probabilities for the combined data? P (match) = P (no match) = 2. Do you think a match and a no-match have the same chance of occurring as your group data? Explain:

2 ways - HH and TT 2 ways - HT and TH Yes, a match and a no match are equally likely

Kalvin’s results better predict the experimental probability of the thumbtack landing on its head because more tosses should lead to a better prediction.

HW: WDYE p. 18-22 #9-10, 24-25