Extreme solar particle events: what Is the worst case scenario?

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Presentation transcript:

Extreme solar particle events: what Is the worst case scenario? Ilya Usoskin University of Oulu, Finland

Spectra of SEP events

SPE occurrence rate Extrapolations: Lingenfelter & Hudson (1980); Miroschnichenko & Nymmik (2012)

Cosmogenic radionuclides 14C and 10Be: last 11 millennia

Atmospheric cascade 10Be in ice cores 14C in tree rings

Potential signature in annual 10Be NGRIP series: peaks > 1.3*104 at/g 1436, 1460, 1650, 1719, 1810, 1816, 1965 Dye3 series: peaks > 0.6*104 at/g 1462, 1479, 1505, 1512, 1603 Cross-check performed

Some candidates in IntCal13 series Miyake et al. Radiocarbon, (2017)

Statistical results Kovaltsov & Usoskin, Sol.Phys, 2014

Specific event of 775 AD

14C signal

10Be signal Sukhodolov, Usoskin, Rozanov et al., Sci. Rep., 2017

Energy spectrum of 775 AD event 30 MeV – a factor of 2; 200 MeV – a factor of 40 Mekhaldi et al. (2015)

Hardness of GLE events Asvestari et al., ASR, 2017 Weak Moderate Strong events Asvestari et al., ASR, 2017

The worst case scenario?

Events to look for in Δ14C

Summary Four potential candidates with F30=(1÷1:5)*1010 cm-2 and no events with F30>2*1010 cm-2 identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10Be data. For the Holocene, 20 SPE candidates with F30=(1÷5)*1010 cm-2 are found in the 14C and 10Be data and clearly no event with F30>5*1010 cm-2. The greatest event was ca. 775 AD F30~5*1010 cm-2. It may serve as the worst case scenario. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP flux. Practical limits are: F30≈1, 2÷3, and 5*1010 cm-2 for the occurrence probability ≈ 10-2, 10-3 and 10-4 year-1, respectively.

case studies of all events. Plan From candidates  case studies of all events.

Lunar/meteoritic samples 14C activity in a lunar sample 68815 (Jull et al., 1998).