Options and Mandates: Trends in Equipment Installation Rates
Factory Installations Bi-annual report on U.S. installation rates on domestic and import light vehicles by company, brand, and model line including: Engines by model line, no. of cylinders, displacement, aspiration, boosted engines Bodystyle Transmission type, brakes, drivetrain, stability control Air conditioning, power equipment, leather seats, and styled wheels ADAS, cameras, navigation Sound, infotainment systems
Fuel economy Market demand for fuel economy Largely viewed, experienced as cost savings measure Some may pay to be green, others less likely to prioritize Government demand for fuel economy Lower emissions Public health (NOx) Global warming(CO2) Reduced fuel dependency
WardsAuto Fuel Economy Index
U.S. LV Share by Vehicle Type
U.S. LV Share by Segment
U.S. Light Vehicle Hybrid & Electric Engine Installations 2016 – 2.2% down from MY ‘13 high of 3.6% Hybrids fall to lowest % in 5 years Electrics down, but still 2nd highest ever Source: WardsAuto
WardsAuto Fuel Economy Index
U.S. Light-Vehicle Engine Installations by Cylinder 2016 – 4 cylinder rebound 55% penetration rate 6-cylinders down slightly each year, falling from 37.5% to 29.9% - less than 1 in 3 8-cylinder decline (1 in 7) Source: WardsAuto
U.S. Light-Vehicle Engine Installations by Cylinder Cars Light Trucks
U.S. Average Cylinders per Engine by Vehicle Type
Boosted Engine Penetration Rates
U.S. Light Vehicle Transmission Installation Rates '12 Model Year '16 Model Year Mid -Year Source: WardsAuto
U.S. Light Vehicle Transmission Installation Rates '12 Model Year '16 Model Year Mid -Year Source: WardsAuto
Transmissions 2016 – 6-speed automatic still dominant, but now at the lower end of forward gears 31% of transmissions were manuals or lower-gear automatics in ’12 vs. 7.5% in ‘16 17% were higher-gear automatics in ‘16 vs. 4.1% in ’12 CVTs account for nearly 1 out of 5 transmissions in ‘16 vs 1 out of 13 in ’12 Manuals dropped from 5.9% to 3.3% penetration
Safety Market demand Government demand for safety People pay for the safety they can afford Tangible risks associated with lack of safety Government demand for safety Public health and safety 38,300 automobile-related deaths in 2015 (NSC) Largest % rise in 50 years 4.4 million serious injuries
Rear Cameras/Rear Object Sensor (Sonic) 100% rear camera penetration (10K lbs. and below) mandated by MY ’18 Sonic Sensor penetration has been static since camera mandate announced in 2014 NHTSA estimated 75% penetration without mandate ’16 Front camera penetration just 5.2% Front sensors 16.5%
Look at that giant screen we put in your car – no don’t! Over 90% of ‘16 vehicles have multi-Informational displays Even more came with hands-free Bluetooth Link (95%) Heads-Up Displays are in 3.5% of MY ‘16 vehicles 92% have voice recognition systems
Taking advice vs giving up control Emergence of alert systems followed closely by related advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) Don’t just tell me – do something: ADAS, more complicated and expensive, but emerging quickly. Tracked systems near or above 10% penetration in ’16 Self-parking - 4.9%
Stop hitting things! A different new model? 20 automakers (99% of U.S. market) agree to make automatic emergency braking (AEB) standard by ‘23 MY year NHTSA estimates will save ~4,000 lives per year Agreement brings AEB to near-mandate levels an estimated three years before traditional regulatory process
Connectivity Market demand for connectivity Because phones (but also… we have phones) Government interest for connectivity Connected infrastructure (vague) Safety , traffic control, fuel/emissions Real connectivity requires multiple players
Connected-ish Infotainment Replicating phone-ctionality Often represent additional revenue streams
Summary Government always shapes the industry - directly and indirectly When market and regulations are in sync, change is faster, but mandates are often the only way path to meeting public policy goals Fuel economy Disconnect: Market associates fuel economy with savings – not public policy goals Standards being met through market-friendly means (for now) Engines downsizing, turbo-charging Advanced transmissions, CVTs increasing Broader ZEV demand looming (Paris, post 2025) Safety Public and government understand safety the same way Goals being addressed by market, mandate, and “volunteerism” Vehicles becoming more “alert” and “proactive” but independent of other vehicles, infrastructure Connectivity Technology abounds, but phones, not cars, are setting the bar for market demand Government goals/ role in autonomy/mobility still not clear Path forward will likely require standards for sectors beyond just automotive
Subscriber links: Installation rate datasheets “Engine Mix Steady, CVTs Roar” – Al Binder
Global production by country, plant, program, nameplate VEHICLE FORECAST Global production by country, plant, program, nameplate Eight-year planning window, all updated monthly Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A. Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
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All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly PRODUCT CYCLES All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
GREEN POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES REPORT Green vehicle and powertrain technology product plans by OEM and segment US Light Vehicle Sales forecast by segment, powertrain technology and OEM Analysis of underlying assumptions, relative strengths, and the potential risks of each OEM’s green strategy Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
Talk with us today to learn how WardsAuto can help you Lisa Williamson Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com 248-799-2642 Brian Priestly Bpriestly@wardsauto.com 248-799-2630