Concerning Thunderstorm (Potential) prediction

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Presentation transcript:

Concerning Thunderstorm (Potential) prediction Jan PARFINIEWICZ , Inst. of Meteorology and Water Management,MOLC 01-673 Warszawa, ul. Podleśna 61, Poland

Essential: Self-learning Engine Thunderstorms Quantification End-User oriented Warning System

Self-learning Engines: 1) Kalman Filter (KF) 2) Artificial Neural Network some generalisation to KF: after each signal an automatic renewal of the multi-regression set of parameters KF++’s: basic statistics allows on dispersion control (clasical physics)

Thunderstorms Quantification at 1st: SYNOP WW code => Convection Strength (CS) [0-7] CS Clouds ------------------------------------- 0 No - 1 light Cu 2 moderate Cu med. 3 quite strong Cb cal. 4 Thunder possib. Cb cap. 5 Thunder 6 Hail possibility 7 Hail to be done: Tornado’s SuCell’s data WW2CS / ! 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 +2,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0, !0 +1,0,0,5,1,2,2,6,7,7, !1 +0,0,0,0,0,4,3,3,0,5, !2 +0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5, !3 +1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0, !4 +0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, !5 +2,1,1,1,1,1,0,1,0,1, !6 +0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, !7 +4,4,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3, !8 +6,5,5,5,5,6,7,6,5,7/ !9 at 2end:

Tempora mutantur at nos mutamur in illiss The System has been learning & I was learning together Recognizing SuperCell as a mobile Power Station [W/m2] - TORNADO generator scaling strength of Tornado :1 – 5 where 1 is Chojnice,PL , episode: 20120714:14.30’-15.30’ [W/m2] ~ [MJ/10’*10km^2]

Chojnice,PL , episode: 20120714:14.30’-15.30

End-User oriented Warning System End-User = Casualties Essential: EMPATHY to CASUALTIES categories: 1) Presentation system (W. Łazarewicz) 2) Precise Warning Message System 3) End-User Entity including Verification

Presentation: http://awiacja. imgw Presentation: http://awiacja.imgw.pl 1)Observed storms: all moderate severe … time scale time scale Severe Tornado

Presentation: http://awiacja. imgw Presentation: http://awiacja.imgw.pl categories: 1) Observed storms 2) Possible danger zone Pb+ = 1 3) Storm Potential 4) Strength of convection model option COSMO: 07km/14km Observed storms 2) Possible danger zone Pb+ = 1

CONCLUSIONS Include Tornado’s scaling into prediction Continue search for potential predictors Dewelop 3-step Warnig System :12h, 3h, 1/2h