Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot Danielle Kreeger, Jennifer Adkins and Priscilla Cole Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Delaware Estuary Summit January 31, 2011

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC http://www.delawareestuary.org/ science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC How do we even begin to plan for climate change in a system as large and complex as the Delaware Estuary?

PDE Climate Ready Pilot Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC PDE Climate Ready Pilot 3 case studies How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary? How will changes impact key resources? What actions are recommended to make these resources more resilient? What if we don’t take action? So, we developed three case studies….

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Climate Ready Approach Inventory Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options Estimate Future Status and Ecosystem Services Environmental Predictions Rank Vulnerabilities and Options Sharing and Next Steps Recommendations

Delaware Estuary Pilot Work Groups Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Delaware Estuary Pilot Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG) STAC-affiliated; Chair: Najjar Tidal Wetland Sub-group Velinsky & Kreeger Shellfish Sub-group Kreeger & Kraeuter Drinking Water Sub-group Connolly Predictions & Modeling Team Najjar Natural Capital Team Cole $

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Environmental Predictions Temp Salinity Sea Level Rise Storms Example Effects on Example Resources Habitats Living Resources Water

How Will Climate Change? Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC How Will Climate Change? as per Dr. Ray Najjar Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010 Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Sea Level 0.6 - 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global Salinity Predictions serve as common group of “drivers” to workgroups considering vulnerabilities, impacts to future conditions. Storms ? Growing Season

Delaware Estuary Pilot Case Studies Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Delaware Estuary Pilot Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Drinking Water

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Tidal Wetlands – Why? A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Nature’s Benefits Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Sequestration Tidal wetlands in our system are diverse, following the wide salinity gradient, ranging from fw tidal in the north to full salt marshes and salt brines in the southern areas. Due to their sheer vastness, combined with the backdrop of industry and major water quality challenges, many scientists consider these marshes to be our system’s kidneys or lungs Like all tidal marshes, these provide important benefits to people, we refer to these as ecological services. Concerns, like in the Gulf, see level rise, combined with land subsidence and possibly increased storms, are seen as a major threat There is a lot of interest at this time in the state of our sediments budgets, wetland condition, and marsh die back

Freshwater Tidal Marshes Tidal Wetland Vulnerability Freshwater Tidal Marshes Salinity Rise Barriers to Landward Migration Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting Salt Marshes Sea Level Rise Storms and Wind Wave Erosion Barriers to Landward Migration Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives

Tidal Wetlands Vulnerability Survey & Results Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater we Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater wetlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. tlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. Tidal Wetlands Vulnerability Survey & Results The Top Five…. Ranking Vulnerability 1 Sea Level Rise Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands 2 Salinity Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 3 Sea Level Rise Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 4 Precipitation and Storm Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 5 Precipitation and Storm Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands Experts ranked each vulnerability for impact and confidence – compiled here into one score

Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options Protection of Natural Buffers Structure Setbacks Living Shorelines Strategic Retreat Managing Water Flows (salinity) Managing Sediments Wetland Tough Choices Where will they be converted to open water? Where can we save them ? Where is strategic retreat the best option? Needs Geospatial Approach Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics

Soft Armoring With Natural Communities Next Generation Living Shorelines Soft Armoring With Natural Communities Just as one example, something we’re testing, shellfish-based LS. where sea level rise and other problems are causing substantial losses of our tidal marshes. Integrated approach that will include mussels and oysters May June September

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC What If We Don’t Take Action? >25% Loss of tidal wetlands! Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Wetlands Conversion of >100,000 ha Wetlands to Water Loss of Services >> Acreage Losses SLAMM modeling by IEc demonstrates the impact of sea level rise on wetlands, and their primary production value 2000 2000 2100

Delaware Estuary Pilot Case Studies Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Delaware Estuary Pilot Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Drinking Water

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Bivalves of the Delaware 11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels Elliptio complanata Corbicula fluminea Rangia cuneata Geukensia demissa Mya arenaria Mytilus edulis Crassostrea virginica Ensis directus Mercenaria mercenaria DRBC

Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers” Nature’s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers” Mussel Beds CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Oyster Reefs Kreeger

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Bivalves – Issues Freshwater Mussels are Imperiled See posters, Thomas et al., Kreeger et al.

     Bivalve Projections – FW Mussels Shifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal Patchy, Impaired Elliptio complanata Rare Strophitus undulatus Extirpated Alasmidonta heterodon     

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Bivalves – Issues Rutgers HSRL Oyster Disease and Salinity Susan Ford, Rutgers HSRL www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg

Bivalve Projections – Oysters Can they be maintained until they might see better conditions? No Help Longer Growing Season With Help 2 Recruitment Events Intertidal Niche Expansion? Point of No Return Today 2030 2060 Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory

Bivalve Projections – Ribbed Mussels Losing Marsh Habitat

Impacts Depend on Species and Location Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Impacts Depend on Species and Location Freshwater Mussels: imperiled, complicated live history, cannot tolerate salinity Oysters: disease and salinity Ribbed Mussels: losing marsh habitat Predictions serve as common group of “drivers” to workgroups considering vulnerabilities, impacts to future conditions.

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Options for Making Shellfish More Resilient Propagate Mussels Shellplanting for Oysters Monitoring & Research Water Quality & Flow Management Riparian Restoration Living Shorelines Predictions serve as common group of “drivers” to workgroups considering vulnerabilities, impacts to future conditions. Fish Passage Restoration

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC What Actions Are Recommended for Shellfish? Those options formed basis for another survey… this one on effectiveness and feasibility of adaptation options for each driver and shellfish type – combined results shown here.

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC What if We Don’t Act? Natural Capital at Risk Only oysters have food and ecotourism value – all bivalves have water filtration value

Biofiltration Potential Start No mussels 8 adult mussels Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

Biofiltration Potential Later No mussels 8 adult mussels Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project A Hypothetical Example… 4 billion mussels filter 30 billion cubic meters of water per year (estimated, combined biofiltration >>> freshwater flows) Filter 758 million kilograms TSS from streams annually 15% loss of biomass = 114 less kilograms TSS /yr CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Photo: Dick Neves, VA Tech

Delaware Estuary Pilot Case Studies Delaware Estuary Pilot Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Drinking Water

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Drinking Water - Why? Drinking water for >16 million Philadelphia – 1.4 million New York City

Drinking Water Vulnerabilities Erosion of infrastructure Obsolete Supply Systems In direct path of flooding, storm surges, and sea level rise Effects on Drinking Water Degraded source water quality Salinity Intrusion Power Outages Customer Supply Issues Drinking Water Vulnerabilities Sea Level Rise Salinity Rise Flooding / Storm Surge Precipitation Changes Drought Wild Fires / Lightening

Drinking Water Tough Questions How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary? Will more reservoirs be needed and where? Where should infrastructure be protected?

Drinking Water – Adaptation Options Infrastructure protection Resilient Materials , Modern Upgrades Minimize water demand Water Efficiency, BMP’s New treatment & distribution system Able to with-stand inundation Prevent increased stormwater runoff Protect source water with forests & buffers Disinfection of wastewater

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Many Other Issues Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network 36

Climate Change + Other Changes Marcellus Shale Ecological Flows Dredging Spills, NRDA Added Complexity Withdrawals Wind Farms Land Use Change Development Emerging Pollutants

The Big Wild Card Storms

Overall Impacts As expected, sea level rise, flooding and precipitation effects are major concerns across all case studies However, vulnerability to salinity rise in the Delaware Estuary is somewhat unique, and especially notable because this system has the world’s largest freshwater tidal prism.

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Take Home Messages Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging, but there will be many more losers than winners Need a Paradigm Shift: Plan and “restore” for the future rather than the past, dynamic rather than static conditions Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and livelihoods Proactive investment today will save money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services

Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC Delaware Estuary Pilot - End -