Autonomous Vehicles The Implications on Urban Transportation Prepared by Dwight L. Farmer, PE Adjunct Associate Professor Old Dominion University July 21, 2016 Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 7/13/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technology Will history repeat itself? Autonomous Vehicle Technology Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

Early opposition to automobiles The British Parliament passed the “Red Flag” law in 1865: Limited the speed of a “road locomotive” to 2 mph in town and 4 mph in the county. Required automobiles to be preceded by a man on foot carrying a red flag to warn passersby. Iowa required motorists to telephone ahead to warn towns of their arrival. Early opposition to automobiles Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

Purpose of presentation Discuss how AV technologies will change the “rules” Discuss the implications on urban transportation systems Review the who, what and how much Review the implications on public transportation and commercial trucks Purpose of presentation Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

“Historical” Traffic Flow Relationships Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technologies AV Technologies Include: Lidar: Detailed picture of surroundings Recognition and predictive capabilities GPS: Supplements vehicle position Sensors for vehicle performance including speed, yaw, skidding Autonomous crash avoidance Much more… utilizing on-board computers Autonomous Vehicle Technologies Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

AV Technologies vs. Manual Operations Human reaction perception time: 1.5 Sec. AV reaction perception time: 0.1 Sec. using forward, rearward and side sensors This capability reduces “safe spacing” between vehicles by 50%. Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 7/13/16

Autonomous Vehicle Traffic Flow Relationships Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

AV Technology Impacts on the Transportation System AV Technology Impacts will include: Increases in highway capacity by ~ 100% Increases in expressway travel speeds by >20% Significant reductions in accidents and injuries Measurable reductions in future capital improvement needs and/or accommodate higher levels of travel demand AV Technology Impacts on the Transportation System Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

The “Players” include virtually all of the global automobile manufacturers including GM, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Tesla, Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Chrysler, Hyundai, Kia. Numerous non-automobile manufacturers are now big players including Google, Uber and Lyft. Many of the above are now in “joint ventures” and are bringing new AV technologies to the market place. Who are the “Players” Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

How Big are the Players Five of the top 10 Fortune 500 Companies and Six of the top 10 Global 500 Companies Are either automobile manufacturers or are in the business of producing fuel to supply to those vehicles. How Big are the Players Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

How Much Resources Are They Investing In Their Products Each of the major US and foreign automobile manufacturers’ annual advertising budgets exceed $1-2 billion per year to promote their products. Each of these advertising budgets exceed the USDOT’s budget for “alternative” transit capital improvements. How Much Resources Are They Investing In Their Products Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

Given the recent advances in AV technologies for automobiles, coupled with unprecedented collaborations and financial investments, it appears that it is not a matter of “if” AV Technologies will become mainstream but a matter of “when”… If or When Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 2/25/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technology There is, however, more to consider… Autonomous Vehicle Technology Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Commercial applications will more likely “lead” the future. From a “business model” perspective, lower operating costs will likely “drive” the immediate future, thus… Commercial applications will more likely “lead” the future. What comes next? Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

The future of public transportation So what implications might this have on “public transportation systems”? The future of public transportation Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technology on Buses Assume one bus with 35 people every 30 seconds on an Expressway: Capacity = 4200 persons per hour That is: 2X current capacity of autos on highways Equal to capacity of AV technology of autos on highways Autonomous Vehicle Technology on Buses Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technology on Public Transportation The future deployment of AV technology on public transportation systems will depend on: Establishment of new safety standards, Government regulations regarding operating standards, and Availability of federal, state and local funding. Autonomous Vehicle Technology on Public Transportation Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technology on commercial trucks There is considerable R&D of AV Technologies on commercial vehicles. Eliminating the cost of drivers will be significant. The worlds first self-driving semi-truck was licensed in Nevada in May 2015. Autonomous Vehicle Technology on commercial trucks Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 7/13/16

Questions and issues soon to be at hand Looking forward > There are at least 10 extremely important questions and issues to consider: Questions and issues soon to be at hand Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Questions and issues soon to be at hand 1) What impact will potential increases in capacity from AV technologies have on congestion; 2) Will increased capacity reduce the need for some future capital improvements, or 3) Will latent demand be realized from improvements in congestion, and 4) Will latent demand thus negate, at least to some degree, increases in capacity; Questions and issues soon to be at hand Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Questions and issues soon to be at hand 5) Will modal choice behavior change, and 6) If so, will there be a “blending” of the capabilities of AV technology between private autos and public transportation resulting in a redefinition of travel modes; 7) Will AV technologies be first incorporated into commercial vehicles to reduce operating cost, and Questions and issues soon to be at hand Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Questions and issues soon to be at hand 8) Will business models and personal demand for goods and services evolve significantly; 9) Will AV technologies cause a significant reduction in auto accidents/injuries/fatalities, and 10) Thus bring about an evolution in the need for/provision of insurance as well as legal services. Questions and issues soon to be at hand Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16

Autonomous Vehicle Technology Thank you Autonomous Vehicle Technology Prepared by: Dwight L. Farmer 4/25/16