Probabilistic Live bate Fishing Tim Ott, Jack Moore, Raghavender PN, Sandeep Reddy MS&E 220

Is there still bait on my hook? PROBLEM: Should the fisherman reel in and check his hook? Rechecking the bait on a hook too frequently lowers total fishing time and number of fish caught Not checking enough means you might be fishing with a hook and no bait SOLUTION: Dynamic Equations & Probability In discrete time intervals, dynamic equations can help identify a optimal time interval to re-check hook if no fish have been hooked, as well as forecasted expected total catch Solution varies by frequency of bites fish (p) and probability of fishing being caught if it nibbles on bait (q)

Result: More Fish, Less Doubt *Optimal interval: 11 minutes In this scenario, fish bite bait every 10 min on average, and 7 in 10 that bite get hooked. Reeling in optimally, which is every 11 min if no fish is hooked, can double catch compared to less patient approach Frequency of reel in time (in minutes)

Model Extensions Consideration of a “rookie factor” of losing bait immediately upon cast Calculation of expected catch and optimal patience if some fish are too small to keep