IRI Experience with many partners, developing the capacity to manage climate-related risks in key climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, food security, water resources management, public health, disasters connects to development goals/programs Climate knowledge/information as a resource

“strong” forecast founding of IRI was motivated by anticipation of this kind of situation

Public Health Malaria in Botswana Epidemic prone country Good surveillance system for epidemics 20 years of data for historic analysis Interested in incorporating seasonal climate forecasts into malaria control planning (Currently: observed climate anomalies) RBM MoH WHO

climate information in malaria control Activities: Demonstrate the use of climate information in malaria control Expected Output Malaria Early Warning System RBM MoH WHO

DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national malaria incidence (Jan-Jun) Potential of Seasonal Climate Forecast to predict high/low Malaria years Anomalies in DJF SSTs, DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national malaria incidence (Jan-Jun) in Botswana (1982-2003)

Information can be used to initiate timely interventions Observed rainfall and DEMETER rainfall forecast in relation to high and low malaria anomaly years Observed and forecasted Climate Anomalies Standardised Malaria Quartiles Information can be used to initiate timely interventions

Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05

MEWS offers opportunities for planning and preparedness ……. NMCP strengthen vector control measures and prepare emergency containers with mobile treatment centres Seasonal climate forecasting science has developed considerably over the past few years. While the information from forecasts is inherently uncertain it may offer useful lead-times for preparation and response planning. In this example from Botswana ‘state of the art’ forecast models have been tested against the 21 years of confirmed malaria incidence data and the results show the levels to which high malaria years can be predicted, as well as the levels to which low malaria years can be predicted. The NMCP receives seasonal forecasts from the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre which have been verified by its National Meteorological Services. The forecasts offer significant lead-times for advanced preparation. An example of the way Botswana’s NMCP uses this information is to prepare a number of emergency containers in readiness for an epidemic.

Agriculture / Food Security Greater Horn of Africa Desired outcome: Anticipate household's becoming food insecure to allow pre-emptive interventions before the situation becomes an emergency.

Partners Information is being produced for and/or in collaboration with:

Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and Good potential for climate forecasts: Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec

Need to “Translate” information to the same Still one step is needed: Results are expressed in “terms” that Decision Makers do not use (e.g., Rainfall) Need to “Translate” information to the same terms that Decision Makers use (crop yields, pasture availability, water in reservoirs, etc.) cover box

Predicting end-of-season crop conditions using the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index COF11 – Forecast Crop Conditions at End of Season Actual Crop Conditions at End of Season “Translating” climate outlooks into food availability outlooks (e.g., crop yields, pastures, etc) Better understandable and able to help make decisions (the outlooks directly quantify food needs) Slide Courtesy G. Galu

How are households meeting food requirements % annual food requirements food insecure 1 is less vulnerable because can buy more, but very close to 100% 2 is very vulnerable to CV (drought = les maize = less food)

Somalia: Food Economy Groups (Food Security Assessment Unit)

(e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004 Climate/Environmental Monitoring + Food Economy Groups: Assess food insecurity hotspots (e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004 + Seasonal Climate Outlook:

Food Security Outlooks (e.g., FSO for December made in August 2004) FS Outlook for December FS Reported in January

Summary climate-related EWS have much to offer in managing risks: proactive v. reactive responses room for further improvements in methodologies for benefit to be realized, actions need to be tied to warnings collaboration needed, both in research/development and in operational practice