Demographic change as a key variable in regional growth strategies the Goriška region (NUTS3), Slovenia Bologna, October 13th, 2014

PAST DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Figure 1: Population change due to natural and migration movements, the Goriška region, 2000-2012 (increase per 1,000 population) Figure 2: Population age groups for the nationals and foreign-born, the Goriška region, 2013 Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia 8.7% of population in Goriška was foreign-born (men 10.5%, women 6.9%) - 1st January 2011. 4.4 % of population in Goriška had foreign citizenship (men 5.7%, women 3.1%) - 1st January 2013. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia

POPULATION PROJECTION 2020 Figure 3: Projection 2020 for the active population (16-64 years old), the Goriška region Active population (15-64 years old), 2013- 2020: decline of -7% to -9% Youth (15-39 years old), 2013-2020: sharp decline -14% to -17% Figure 4: Indicators of population ageing, the Goriška region Note: 2020:s1 – crisis scenario, 2020:s2 – zero (net) migration scenario Strong increase in the share of the total population aged 65+: from 18% to 24% over the period 2010-2020 Deterioration of the (old age) dependency ratio

Key development factors in the region Key development factors in the region which are connected also with migration policy are: Revenues of companies and individual SMEs in the Goriška region will increase for 2.3% on an annual basis (€ 3,519,499,032 in 2012); The number of economically active population in the region will increase for 1.5% (45,026 in December 2012); The registered unemployment rate will decline from 11.5% in December 2012 to 9.5% in 2020; At least 42% of people between 30 and 34 years with post-secondary education attainment in 2020 (situation 01/01/2011: in SLO 31.7%, in the region: 33.1%); The share of science and technology graduates will be 20% (SLO 2010: 21.1%); Percentage of the population aged 25 to 64 years included in the LLP will stood at 18% in 2020 (2010: SLO: 16.2%, region: 16.1%).

Key changes and challenges to be taken into consideration in territorial strategy making until 2020 RAISING THE KNOWLEDGE NEEDED TO INCREASE EMPLOYABILITY DEVELOPMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION IMPROVING THE LIVING CONDITIONS OF INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES OF POPULATION ASSURING SUITABLE HOUSING CONDITIONS

Figure shows the necessity of migration management, deriving from the developed scenarios and regional development goals

The extent of management of migration flows

Thank you for your attention! Regional development agency of Northern Primorska Ltd. Nova Gorica and external technical expert team