Putting Putting In Its Proper Place Roland Minton Roanoke College

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game”

ShotLink Revolution

ShotLink statistics 15, 3,03,155,01,S,TeeBox,,Green, {R,PGATOUR,2008,380,01035,745,027, Tommy,Armour III,01,The Barclays,Ridgewood Country Club, 15, 3,03,155,01,S,TeeBox,,Green, Unknown,05171,05400,N,N,, 00000000228,0907,Good,With,Level, 9,922.2740, 8,232.4720, 74.6350,00022,00000}

Strokes Gained Have expected score (ES) from every lie, distance to hole. B = ES before shot A = ES after shot A – B = value of shot (in strokes)

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game” Broadie: top 40 in Total S.G. 2004-12. Average: 1.13 strokes per round better Putting: 0.17 strokes per round better 0.17 out of 1.13 is 15%. Top 40: Phil, Vijay, Els, Sergio, Scott

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game” … for large values of 15: “Putting contributed 35%, on average, to victories on the PGA Tour.” What are other ways to measure the importance of putting?

Nineteen “Skills” Putting; Fringe; GS Bunker Tee shots (3,4,5); Fairway (0-50,50-200,200-250) Rough (0-50,50-200) Recovery; Layup; Penalty Intermediate (0-50,50-200,200-250) Miscellaneous (0-50,50-200)

Tiger Woods 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Putt -0.76 -0.45 -0.83 -0.87 -0.86 0.06 -0.27 -0.43 -0.55 T3 -0.17 -0.35 -0.42 -0.33 -0.16 -0.14 -0.28 -0.39 T4 -0.25 -0.23 -0.04 -0.19 0.08 0.34 -0.3 0.01 T5 -0.24 -0.21 -0.07 -0.01 -0.1 -0.13 Fs -0.02 -0.09 -0.18 -0.06 -0.05 Fm -0.36 -0.65 -0.57 -0.4 -0.64 Fl -0.2 -0.03 -0.08 0.03 Rs 0.02 0.05 -0.34 Rm -0.12 0.09 sand 0.14 0.24 -0.11 fringe rec. lay. Is Im 0.13 Il Ms Mm 0.12 pen 0.42 total -2.58 -3.05 -3.07 -3.43 -2.82 -0.15 -1.05 -1.88 -2.03 0.43 0.92 1.48 1.91 1.02 0.21

Tiger Woods 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Putt -0.76 -0.45 -0.83 -0.87 -0.86 0.06 -0.27 -0.43 -0.55 T3 -0.17 -0.35 -0.42 -0.33 -0.16 -0.14 -0.28 -0.39 T4 -0.25 -0.23 -0.04 -0.19 0.08 0.34 -0.3 0.01 T5 -0.24 -0.21 -0.07 -0.01 -0.1 -0.13 Fs -0.02 -0.09 -0.18 -0.06 -0.05 Fm -0.36 -0.65 -0.57 -0.4 -0.64 Fl -0.2 -0.03 -0.08 0.03 Rs 0.02 0.05 -0.34 Rm -0.12 0.09 sand 0.14 0.24 -0.11 fringe rec. lay. Is Im 0.13 Il Ms Mm 0.12 pen 0.42 total -2.58 -3.05 -3.07 -3.43 -2.82 -0.15 -1.05 -1.88 -2.03 0.43 0.92 1.48 1.91 1.02 0.21

Tiger Woods 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Putt -0.76 -0.45 -0.83 -0.87 -0.86 0.06 -0.27 -0.43 -0.55 T3 -0.17 -0.35 -0.42 -0.33 -0.16 -0.14 -0.28 -0.39 T4 -0.25 -0.23 -0.04 -0.19 0.08 0.34 -0.3 0.01 T5 -0.24 -0.21 -0.07 -0.01 -0.1 -0.13 Fs -0.02 -0.09 -0.18 -0.06 -0.05 Fm -0.36 -0.65 -0.57 -0.4 -0.64 Fl -0.2 -0.03 -0.08 0.03 Rs 0.02 0.05 -0.34 Rm -0.12 0.09 sand 0.14 0.24 -0.11 fringe rec. lay. Is Im 0.13 Il Ms Mm 0.12 pen 0.42 total -2.58 -3.05 -3.07 -3.43 -2.82 -0.15 -1.05 -1.88 -2.03 0.43 0.92 1.48 1.91 1.02 0.21

Tiger Time Series Fairways 50-200 yards in blue, Overall rating in purple, Correlation equals 0.61 Putts per rounds in blue, Overall rating in purple, Correlation equals 0.91

Time Series Correlations 66 golfers in all 9 years (2005-13) of data. For each of 19 skills, 9-year time series of strokes gained versus total strokes gained. Putting #1 for 18 golfers, #2 for 11 golfers, #3 for 10 golfers of the 66. Par 4 tee shots #1 for 10, #2 for 8; Fwy 50-200 #1 for 5, #2 for 9 Layup #1 for 5, #2 for 7

Time Series Correlations Is putting unimportant for “bad” putters ? Phil Mickelson 0.73 (1) Ernie Els 0.76 (2) Vijay Singh 0.82 (3) Sergio Garcia 0.76 (1) Adam Scott 0.81 (1)

Time Series Correlations Normalized time series for all 66: Putting 0.59 Par 4 tee 0.58 Layup 0.50 Par 3 tee 0.42 Fwy 50-200 0.39

And More Correlations Strokes gained in rounds vs score: Putting 0.57 Fwy 50-200 0.38 Penalty 0.32 Par 3 tee 0.31 Par 4 tee 0.29 For each of top 50 players, correlations of skills round ratings to round scores were computed. For 49 of 50, putting had highest correlation. But how much of putting success is skill?

Extreme Value Theorem Do highly correlated skills tend to be strengths or weaknesses of golfers? Yes! Highest correlated skill is top 3 for 19/50, bottom 3 for 22/50. 2nd or 3rd highest correlated skill is top 3 for 41/100, bottom 3 for 25/100.

Any Questions? Sound Bite Time? This year’s Masters will be won by … someone who putts better than usual. Any Questions?