fresh expressions of Church Church Army’s Research Unit 4th November 2016 fresh expressions of Church Canon Dr George Lings Director - Church Army’s Research Unit Part One The Day of Small Things An analysis of fresh expression of Church in 21 dioceses of the Church of England www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

Dioceses covered Coverage rate 98.7% Dioceses 1-11 with records up to the end of 2012 Dioceses 12-21 with records up to the end of 2014 Data grouped in 7 year periods: 1992-1998 1999-2005 2006-2012 Then 2013 – 2014 2788 leads

What we know now… Known knowns Lots of fxC stories Need for stats too Known unknowns How many fxC? Where? Who comes? Etc. etc. Unknown knowns Ah, this is that! Unknown unknowns ? - e.g. the lay-lay leader Thanks Donald Rumsfeld

Uses of the data The picture from 21 dioceses – gives the nearest thing to national coverage of fxC Comparing the 2 sets of diocesan data, what is representative and what varies Larger sample sizes gives confidence about what is characteristic of the more common types of fxC We can explore what is typical across dioceses and what is particular to some www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

1. Some missional features 1.1 The diocesan backdrop: All 21 dioceses were in degrees of numerical decline, measured by AWA 2006 – year prior to collection. The range was -18.4% to -1.1%, an average of -8.4%. The populations served had increased, on average by > 8% The percentage of the population attending was small, varying from a rural diocese [3.1%] to an urban one [1.1% ] Thank goodness for some good news from the fresh expressions of Church See section 5.1.2 www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

1.2 The number of fxC is 1109 Diocese name No. of fxC Liverpool 78 Canterbury 72 Leicester 52 Derby 46 Chelmsford 50 Norwich 63 Ripon & Leeds 39 Blackburn 64 Bristol 33 Portsmouth 21 Gloucester 23 Totals 541 Diocese name No. of fxC Exeter 69 Ely 52 Southwark 47 Guildford 77 Carlisle London 86 Birmingham 28 Sheffield 56 York 57 Manchester 49 Totals 568 See section 5.1.3

1.3 An upward trend See section 4.4 Estimates from the months in that year after collection Was 2012 the peak? The data of 2013-14 says not – see section 5.4

1.4 How many attend fxC? – good question Roughly 50,600 - some data is leaders’ rough estimate What contribution does this make to diocesan AWA? Strand 3b report put out 10% - compared with 2011 AWA But after then national counting has taken note of frequency We concluded we should do the same, which means Dioceses 1-11 figure is not 9.3% but 5.4% Dioceses 12-21 figure is not 10.2% but 6.4% The (adjusted) range across dioceses is 10.2% - 2.0% Nor does this figure account for ‘blending’ See sections 5.1.3, 5.1.4 and 5.2

1.5a The background of those attending fxC #dioc. 1-11 figs should be set aside: too crude scoring /may not include team #dioc. 12-21 figs are improved - includes team and more accurate scoring system But these are still are leaders’ best guesses See section 4.6

1.5b The church plant effect in round 2 Diocese CP Xtns De-ch’d Non-ch’d   <> CP Exeter 2 64.3% 5.6% 30.1% 67 31.0% 24.8% 44.0% Ely 8 61.5% 21.3% 17.2% 44 34.4% 20.8% 44.8% Southwark 13 56.7% 27.0% 16.4% 34 32.3% 29.8% 38.0% Guildford 9 39.6% 41.3% 19.1% 68 42.1% 24.3% 33.5% Carlisle 1 40.0% 30.0% 46 31.8% 18.6% 49.6% London 35 52.5% 28.5% 19.0% 51 43.9% 29.6% 26.5% Birmingham 35.0% 15.0% 27 36.4% 29.2% 34.5% Sheffield 10 41.5% 33.8% 24.7% 31.4% 22.8% 45.9% York 4 54.9% 23.2% 21.9% 53 29.0% 37.2% Manchester 44.4% 32.7% 45 25.8% 31.7% 42.5% Averages 51.5% 19.5% 34.8% 25.7% 39.4% See section 4.6.3

1.6 Contact with the under 16s fxC type with high adult figure Adult Under 16s fxC type with low adult figure Older peoples’ church 98% 2% Youth Church 44% 56% Special interest group 85% 15% Child-focused church 47% 53% Church plant 76% 24% Church based on <5s 49% 51% Clusters 73% 27% Messy Church See sections 4.7 and 6.11

1.7a Neighbourhood and network in fxC See sections 7.5 and 6.6 www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

1.7b Neighbourhood and network in fxC fxC type high on neighbourhood Neighbour-hood Community development plant 84% Messy Church 83% Child-focused church 82% Older people’s church 79% All-age worship 77% fxC type high on network Network Network church 89% Special interest group 69% Clusters Youth church 63% Alternative worship NB Because leaders scored this on a 0-3 scale and could choose both factors as major (2 & 2), overall figures do not sum to 100% See sections 7.5 and 6.6

1.8 The Net Growth ratio at fxC Dioceses Those starting the fxC Fxc attendance now Net Growth ratio 1-11 6070 21592 2.6 12-21 8031 29032 2.5 Overall 14101 50624* A 2.6 net growth ratio also means 260% growth since the start – rare elsewhere * This figure is slightly inflated by the residual attenders in grafts and transplants See sections 4.8 and 4.9 www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

1.9 Growth plateau and shrinkage at fxC [48%] Evidence of ‘natural unit size’? cf. sections 6.2 and 6.3 See section 6.3 for how these factors vary by fxC type

Growth plateau and shrinkage at fxC by frequency of meeting See section 8.3 www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

fxC distribution by social area Type of area fxC Parish Parish label Rural 8.4% 14.6% Other rural Expanded village 14.4% 12.9% Commuter rural Town 13.2% 19.9% Separate town Suburban 17.1% 34.7% Suburban & urban Private estate 3.2% Mixed estate 8.9% Council estate 6.6% 2.9% Urban priority 8.8% 9.6% Inner city Urban 14.7% City centre 5.0% 5.5% City Centre ? See section 7.2 - and 7.3 for which types favour which areas

1.10 In each area what % are X type fxC? Messy churches Cafe churches Network churches Church plants Abbreviations of social areas CTC – city centre URB – urban UPA - Urban priority area CE – council estate ME – mixed council and private estate PE - Private housing estate SUB - suburb TWN- town EPV - expanded village RUR – rural See section 7.3

So nationally… ? You can’t just ‘double your money’: There’s only one capital Dioc.22-43 (as was) AWA = 93% of dioc. 1-21 fxC attenders might be 97,000 – but still 6% And likely to be 2100 fxC in England How many fxC per year? – let’s do some history In 1970s An average of 2.4 church plants per year In 1978-84 It rose to 5.5 per year In 1989 We reached a hoped for goal - 12, or one a month In 1991 The church planting zenith of 41 per year [the Victorian church building zenith was 1870s - 456 in the decade - 45 a year] In 2012-14 80 a year from 11 dioceses - another 80 from 2nd 10 So now nationally - 310 a year? – not bad for 40 years progress www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

Getting hold of the reports Hard copy £15 today from Andrew Wooding The Day of Small Things An analysis of fresh expression of Church in 21 dioceses of the Church of England George Lings Church Army’s Research Unit November 2016 PDF available to download for free at: www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch www.churcharmy.org/fxCresearch @ChurchArmy #CARUconf

The survey of fxC attenders Over to Claire and John The survey of fxC attenders