Case study: July 2016 Bihar and Assam floods

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Presentation transcript:

Case study: July 2016 Bihar and Assam floods Web visualization of catchment rainfall evolution (July 18-25th 2016) Flooding in the Assam province near the village of Mayong (PTI) Anomalous moisture flow into northeastern India in early July

Outline Recent severe July flooding Recent August floods Gridded observed fields Catchment-integrated fields Time-series Recent August floods Forecast outlooks Website snapshots

July 22 July 18 July 19 July 23 July 20 July 24 July 25 July 21 Sub-catchment rainfall as measured by satellite in the Ganges / Brahmaputra basin/ Flooding regions shown with red and purple boxes July 19 July 23 July 19 July 20 July 24 July 20 July 25 July 21

Demonstration of web comparison tool: European model forecasts (top) vs. observed satellite verification (bottom) for 5-day accumulated rainfall (July 21-25 2016)

All forecast models predicted elevated precipitation in the affected regions European Model US Model Canadian Model UK Model Observed precipitation for the same period

Basins with elevated rainfall above or near the 90th percentile during the flooding period 5 day-averaged Satellite Merged Precipitation is shown in red through July 21-25 2016 Climatological percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th 75th 90th) are shown in grey and black in the background. Gandak Kamla-Balan Ghagra Bagmati Kosi Mahananda

Blue histogram shows the distribution of historical daily rainfall amounts from the week of July 17-23 from 2009-2015. Red lines show the daily rainfall totals from July 19-21st 2016 and how they compare with the historical distribution.

Basins with elevated rainfall above or near the 90th percentile during the flooding period: Brahmaputra Basins 5 day-averaged Satellite Merged Precipitation is shown in red through July 21-25 2016 Climatological percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th 75th 90th) are shown in grey and black in the background. Jamuna Middle Brahmaputra Lohit Upper Brahmaputra Manas Lower Brahmaputra

U Bagmati Upper Ganges Lhasa-He Upper Brahmaputra Yarlung-Tsangpo Ghagra Ramganga Gandak Subansiri Lohit Kosi Manas Yamuna Gomti Jamuna Lower Brahmaputra Middle Brahmaputra Sind Mahananda Middle Ganges Chambal Lower Ganges Tons Betwa Meghna Ken Sone Kamla-Balan

Outline Recent severe July flooding Recent August floods Gridded observed fields Catchment-integrated fields Time-series Recent August floods Forecast outlooks Website snapshots

5-day catchment rainfall through Aug 20-24. Bagmati Gandak Lower Ganges Kosi Ghagra Lohit

Outline Recent severe July flooding Recent August floods Gridded observed fields Catchment-integrated fields Time-series Recent August floods Forecast outlooks Website snapshots

ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/29

ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/30

ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/31

ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 9/01

ECMWF 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 9/02

Forecasts for the Kosi showing moderate precip levels forecast for the next 5 days (8/30-9/02) ECMWF Canada UKMET NCEP Red lines show ensemble mean, black lines show 25th and 75th percentile ensemble members

Forecasts for the Bagmati ECMWF Canada UKMET NCEP Red lines show ensemble mean, black lines show 25th and 75th percentile ensemble members

UKMET 24 hr Rainfall forecast for 8/30 showing particularly high precip levels forecast