Credit Trends Report: Originations

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Presentation transcript:

Credit Trends Report: Originations US National Consumer Credit Trends Report: Originations DATA AS OF MARCH 2017 MAY 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

CREDIT TRENDS ORIGINATIONS: FIRST MORTGAGE © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

First Mortgage Originations Observations Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017: 533,560 first mortgages have been originated year-to-date through January. This is a 4.2% increase from the same YTD period in 2016. The total dollar amount of first mortgages originated YTD is $129.3 billion, an 8.9% increase over the previous year. 29,930 first mortgages have been issued YTD to consumers with a VantageScore® 3.0 credit score below 620. These are generally considered subprime accounts. This is a 5.6% increase over 2016. These newly issued mortgages have corresponding total balances of $5.61 billion, a 4.3% increase over the same period a year ago. Through January, 5.6% of first mortgages were issued to consumers with a subprime credit score and subprime mortgages account for 4.3% of new mortgage origination balances. In 2016 the subprime shares were 5.9% of accounts and 4.6% of balances The average loan amount for all first mortgages originated in January 2017 was $235,3612. This is a 1.5% increase from January 2016. The average origination balance on subprime first mortgages was $181,531. This is a 1.1% increase compared to January 2016. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

First Mortgage Originations: Accounts Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA NUMBER OF FIRST MORTGAGE ACCOUNTS ORIGINATED IN MILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 9.24 27.3% 0.68 15.0% 2010 7.94 -14.1% 0.49 -28.7% 2011 7.00 -11.8% 0.60 22.6% 2012 9.71 38.7% 0.62 3.4% 2013 9.46 -2.6% 0.85 38.3% 2014 5.86 -38.1% 0.37 -56.4% 2015 7.44 27.1% 0.43 16.7% 2016 8.46 13.7% 0.51 18.1% 2017 --- 0.53 4.2% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

First Mortgage Originations: Balances $ Balances in Billions; NSA TOTAL FIRST MORTGAGES BALANCES ORIGINATED IN $ BILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 $1,863 29.9% $140.4 16.3% 2010 $1,640 -12.0% $100.5 -28.5% 2011 $1,435 -12.5% $124.1 23.5% 2012 $2,062 43.6% $130.2 5.0% 2013 $1,961 -4.9% $181.5 39.3% 2014 $1,275 -35.0% $76.8 -57.7% 2015 $1,750 37.2% $100.2 30.3% 2016 $2,080 18.8% $118.8 18.6% 2017 --- $129.3 8.9% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Subprime FM Originations: Accounts First Mortgage Subprime FM Originations: Accounts Number of Accounts in Thousands; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 NUMBER OF SUBPRIME FIRST MORTGAGE ACCOUNTS ORIGINATED IN THOUSANDS YEAR ANNUAL % of TOTAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 601.2 6.5% -32.3% 53.7 7.9% -36.9% 2010 348.6 4.4% -42.0% 27.0 5.5% -49.8% 2011 280.5 4.0% -19.5% 20.8 3.5% -23.0% 2012 351.8 3.6% 25.4% 22.2 6.9% 2013 509.7 5.4% 44.9% 32.0 3.8% 44.2% 2014 320.6 -37.1% 21.7 5.8% -32.4% 2015 390.5 5.2% 21.8% 23.3 7.7% 2016 442.0 13.2% 30.4 5.9% 30.3% 2017 --- 29.9 5.6% -1.5% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Subprime FM Originations: Balances First Mortgage Subprime FM Originations: Balances Total Origination Balances in $Billions; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 TOTAL SUBPRIME FIRST MORTGAGE BALANCES ORIGINATED IN $ BILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL % of TOTAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 $92.3 5.0% -32.1% $8.70 6.2% -35.8% 2010 $51.3 3.1% -44.4% $4.07 4.0% -53.2% 2011 $40.6 2.8% -20.9% $3.18 2.6% -21.7% 2012 $54.8 2.7% 35.0% $3.40 6.7% 2013 $81.6 4.2% 48.8% $5.19 2.9% 52.7% 2014 $50.6 -38.0% $3.29 4.3% -36.7% 2015 $68.9 3.9% 36.2% $3.90 18.7% 2016 $82.9 20.3% $5.46 4.6% 40.0% 2017 --- $5.61 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

First Mortgage Origination Loan Amounts Average Origination Balances Over Time; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

YTD First Mortgage Origination Balances Year-to-Date Total Origination Balances in $Billions; Subprime Share of Total Origination Balances (%); Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

First Mortgage Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for First Mortgage Loan Originations by Year (Percent of Accounts) Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

CREDIT TRENDS ORIGINATIONS: HOME EQUITY REVOLVING LINES OF CREDIT © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit HELOC Originations Observations Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017: Over 99,580 HELOCs have been originated year-to-date. This is a 0.8% increase from 2016 and the highest number for the period since 2008, when 159,835 HELOCs were originated YTD. The total credit limit on HELOCs originated YTD is $11.5 billion, a 1.7% increase over the previous year and a nine-year high. 2,748 HELOCs have been issued YTD to consumers with a VantageScore® 3.0 credit score below 620. These are generally considered subprime accounts. These newly issued HELOCs have a corresponding total credit limit of $173.1 million. Through January, 2.8% of HELOCs were issued to consumers with a subprime credit score and aggregated credit limits on new subprime HELOCs are 1.5% of total HELOC credit limits originated YTD. A year ago the subprime shares were 2.6% of accounts and 1.3% of credit limits. The average credit limit for all HELOCs originated in January 2017 was $115,803. This is a 1.0% increase over January 2016. The average credit limit on subprime HELOCs was $63,072. This is a 12.8% increase compared to January 2016. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit HELOC Originations: Accounts Number of Accounts in Thousands; NSA NUMBER OF HELOC ACCOUNTS ORIGINATED IN THOUSANDS YEAR ANNUAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 976.5 -45.9% 76.8 -51.9% 2010 863.7 -11.5% 51.5 -33.0% 2011 823.9 -4.6% 56.1 9.0% 2012 872.0 5.8% 56.6 0.9% 2013 1,050 20.5% 64.3 13.4% 2014 1,222 16.3% 71.6 11.4% 2015 1,366 11.8% 86.4 20.7% 2016 1,435 5.0% 98.8 14.4% 2017 --- 99.6 0.8% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit HELOC Originations: Total Credit Limits Total Credit Limits in $Billions; NSA TOTAL HELOC CREDIT LIMITS ORIGINATED IN $ BILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 $84.6 -54.3% $7.6 -53.8% 2010 $73.4 -13.2% $4.4 -41.3% 2011 $72.6 -1.0% $5.0 12.1% 2012 $80.0 10.1% $5.3 6.3% 2013 $99.9 24.9% $6.2 18.1% 2014 $121.5 21.6% $7.4 19.1% 2015 $145.7 20.0% $9.4 26.4% 2016 $158.4 8.7% $11.3 20.7% 2017 --- $11.5 1.7% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit Subprime HELOC Originations: Accounts Number of Accounts in Thousands; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 NUMBER OF SUBPRIME HELOC ACCOUNTS ORIGINATED IN THOUSANDS YEAR ANNUAL % of TOTAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 21.4 2.2% -61.2% 1.86 2.4% -73.8% 2010 18.5 2.1% -13.2% 1.23 -33.9% 2011 18.2 -1.8% 1.20 -2.0% 2012 18.8 3.2% 1.28 2.3% 6.2% 2013 23.7 26.1% 1.37 7.0% 2014 31.1 2.5% 31.3% 1.88 2.6% 38.0% 2015 34.1 9.5% 2.36 2.7% 25.0% 2016 36.8 8.2% 2.54 8.0% 2017 --- 2.75 2.8% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit Subprime HELOC Originations: Total Limits Total Credit Limits in $Millions; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 TOTAL SUBPRIME HELOC CREDIT LIMITS ORIGINATED IN $ MILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL % of TOTAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 $1,255 1.5% -66.4% $115.6 -75.7% 2010 $954.3 1.3% -23.9% $69.1 1.6% -40.3% 2011 $900.9 1.2% -5.6% $60.2 -12.8% 2012 $961.6 6.7% $70.5 17.0% 2013 $1,283 33.4% $68.4 1.1% -2.9% 2014 $1,709 1.4% 33.3% $111.9 63.5% 2015 $1,920 12.3% $135.0 20.6% 2016 $2,153 12.1% $142.2 5.4% 2017 --- $173.1 21.7% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit HELOC Origination Credit Limit Average Origination Credit Limit over time; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit YTD HELOC Origination Credit Limits Year-to-Date Total Credit Limits in $Billions; Subprime Share of Total Origination Credit Limits (%); NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Lines of Credit HELOC Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for HELOC Originations by Year (Percent of Accounts) Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

CREDIT TRENDS ORIGINATIONS: HOME EQUITY INSTALLMENT LOANS © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans HE Loan Originations Observations Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017: 75,575 HE Installment Loans have been originated year-to-date. This is a 21.2% increase from 2016 and the highest level since 2008, when originations totaled 85,902 accounts YTD. The total dollar amount of HE Loans originated YTD is $3.11 billion, a 31.8% increase over the previous year, and an eight-year high. In 2008 originations totaled $3.89 billion YTD. 9,438 HE Loans have been issued YTD to consumers with a VantageScore® 3.0 credit score below 620. These are generally considered subprime accounts. This is a 2.9% increase from 2016. These newly issued loans have a corresponding total origination amount of $276 million, a 12.3% increase from 2016. Through January, 12.5% of all HE Loans were issued to consumers with a subprime credit score, lower than the 14.7% share recorded YTD in 2016. Origination balances on subprime HE Loans represent 8.9% of the total. The average loan amount for all HE Loans originated in January 2017 was $47,851. This is a 26.3% increase from January 2016. The average loan amount on new subprime HE Loans was $31,862. This a 18.9% increase compared to January 2016. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans Home Equity Loan Originations: Accounts Number of Accounts in Thousands; NSA NUMBER OF HOME EQUITY LOAN ACCOUNTS ORIGINATED IN THOUSANDS YEAR ANNUAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 618 -37.9% 39.4 -54.1% 2010 559 -9.6% 31.5 -20.0% 2011 550 -1.7% 34.0 7.8% 2012 599 9.1% 34.8 2.2% 2013 760 26.8% 41.5 19.4% 2014 669 -12.0% 39.6 -4.5% 2015 838 25.4% 48.4 22.0% 2016 873 4.1% 62.4 29.0% 2017 --- 75.6 21.2% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans Home Equity Loan Originations: Balances Total Origination Balances in $Billions; NSA TOTAL HOME EQUITY LOAN BALANCES ORIGINATED IN $ BILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 $25.8 -40.1% $1.71 -56.1% 2010 $23.5 -8.8% $1.31 -23.5% 2011 $25.2 7.1% $1.77 35.8% 2012 $32.3 28.2% $1.82 2.8% 2013 $40.0 24.1% $2.51 37.5% 2014 $26.9 -32.8% $1.83 -27.1% 2015 $32.0 18.8% $1.88 3.0% 2016 $34.4 7.6% $2.36 25.5% 2017 --- $3.11 31.8% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans Subprime HE Loan Originations: Accounts Number of Accounts in Thousands; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 NUMBER OF SUBPRIME HOME EQUITY LOAN ACCOUNTS ORIGINATED IN THOUSANDS YEAR ANNUAL % of TOTAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 81.5 13.2% -45.0% 5.91 15.0% -58.0% 2010 65.2 11.7% -20.0% 4.21 13.3% -28.7% 2011 60.7 11.0% -6.9% 3.66 10.7% -13.1% 2012 56.7 9.5% -6.7% 3.59 10.3% -1.9% 2013 79.4 10.4% 40.1% 3.75 9.0% 4.6% 2014 79.2 11.8% -0.3% 4.79 12.1% 27.7% 2015 112.2 13.4% 41.8% 6.86 14.2% 43.2% 2016 112.1 12.8% -0.1% 9.18 14.7% 33.7% 2017 --- 9.44 12.5% 2.9% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans Subprime HE Loan Originations: Balances Total Balances in $Millions; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 TOTAL SUBPRIME HOME EQUITY LOAN BALANCES ORIGINATED IN $ BILLIONS YEAR ANNUAL % of TOTAL %YOY YTD CURRENT MO 2009 $2.29 8.9% -48.8% $0.17 9.9% -65.3% 2010 $1.69 7.2% -25.9% $0.12 9.1% -29.6% 2011 $1.53 6.1% -9.4% $0.11 6.0% -11.0% 2012 $1.56 4.8% 1.7% $0.10 5.6% -3.1% 2013 $2.39 53.4% 4.4% 8.5% 2014 $2.07 7.7% -13.2% $0.14 7.9% 29.7% 2015 $2.89 9.0% 39.2% $0.18 9.7% 26.2% 2016 $3.00 8.7% 3.9% $0.25 10.4% 34.7% 2017 --- $0.28 12.3% Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans Home Equity Loan Amount at Origination Average Origination Loan Amount Over Time; NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 credit score less than 620 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans YTD HE Loan Origination Balances Year-to-Date Total Balances in $Billions; Subprime Share of Total Origination Balances (%); NSA Subprime accounts defined as those with borrower’s origination VantageScore® 3.0 less than 620 Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Home Equity: Installment Loans Home Equity Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Home Equity Installment Loan Originations by Year (Percent of Accounts) Source: Equifax Inc. Originations through January 2017 reported as of March 2017 © 2017 Equifax Inc. All Rights Reserved