Validation of €uro-Star Replacement Index.

Key Questions? Does the Replacement Index work? If I bought/selected a breeding heifer based on her parent average replacement index, how would she subsequently perform relative to an average animal? Will genomics help improve the accuracy of the €uro-Star Replacement Index. What additional value can the genotype data bring to the accuracy of purchase/selection, above information on parent average and owne performance data?

Replacement Index. Emphasis: Cow traits 71% Calf traits 29% Trait Goal Relative wt Calving Less 16% Feed Intake 18% Carcass wt (for age) More 21% Maternal milk Female fertility 23% Docility 4% Emphasis: Cow traits 71% Calf traits 29%

Data + Analysis. 162,363 females that were born in 2011 and subsequently entered the suckler herd as female replacements. Analysis of average performance of these females. Compared performance of 5 star females, relative to this average. Replacement Index roofs taken from; December 2012 (parent average proof, “new” replacement index recalculated). April 16 (parent average + own performance data) June 16 genomic (parent average + own performance data + animals genotype).

Proofs for animals could change by €100 with more data.

Change in Stars Dec 12 => Apr 16

Extent of changes are less with genomics.

Change in Stars Apr 16 => June 16

Summary The €uro-Star Replacement Index is an accurate predictor of future performance. Use of genomics will add significantly to the accuracy of this prediction in the future. Proofs for individual animals will continue to change. This is exactly in line with expectations, based on reliability. Analysis supports moving to official genomic evaluations, from August 2016.

BDGP - Key Time-lines. Month Key Time-lines. Ongoing 2015 payment upon verification of compliance. May Finalisation of list of herds involved in the BDGP scheme. Tags sent to Autumn calving herds in BDGP (some 2.5k herds). July Tags sent to Spring calving herds in BDGP (remaining 22.5k herds). August Release of official genomic evaluations for beef AI sires. September Updated BDGP reports with new beef genomic evaluations sent to scheme participants. October Completion of BDGP Training by all scheme participants. Completion of initial Carbon Navigator herd assessment by all scheme participants. December Commencement of 2016 payments. All months Completion of relevant BDGP data recording forms, as requested by DAFM.

G€N€ IR€ AI Sires (n=73)

Beef Genomic Evaluations.

Update since last meeting Survival trait given priority Solution found based on a 2 step process similar to dairy genomic evaluations called SNP BLUP Involves developing a “genomic key” based on informative breeding values Given the progress with survival the same process was then applied to all 16 traits in the Replacement index

Update since last meeting 2 New phenotypic data and pedigree up to middle of May 16 512k genotyped animals in database at start of May included of which 418k were beef genotypes Evaluations were loaded to database last week Test proofs for AI sires circulated

Process Run single trait analysis for each trait (16 traits) Removes any bias in ebvs derived from predictor traits Use these uni-variate ebvs to derive a “genomic key” for each trait Apply that genomic key to all genotyped animals Use a blending approach to combine with the non genomic evaluations

Training datasets by trait Criteria Genotyped animals with non genomic reliability > heritability from a single trait evaluation

Results Run single trait analysis for each trait (16 traits) Removes any ebvs derived from predictor traits Using these univariate ebvs to derive a “genomic key” for each trait Apply that genomic key to all genotyped animals Use a blending approach to combine with the non genomic evaluations

All genotyped AI sires >90% rel official (247)

All genotyped AI sires <50% rel official (422)

Experience from dairy Average PTA (reliabilities in brackets) N=244 PA   PA Official genomic Daughter Milk 197 (41) 133 (63) 129 (94) Fat 13 11.2 11 Fat % 0.106 0.119 0.12 Prot 10.5 8.5 8.2 Prot % 0.074 0.08 0.078 CI -3.48 (31) -4.2 (49) -5.1 (81) SU 1.9 2.2 1.99 CD 3.05 (37) 1.9 (50) 2.7 (90) Gest -2.0 -2.35 -2.73 Carcase Weight -1.8 -3.5 -2.4 Carcase Conf -0.63 -0.71 -0.72

Next Steps. Some young AI bulls not in file, new file to be circulated Investigations necessary for some traits: Mortality increase with genomics cow liveweight increase with genomics Update of new data, pedigree, genotypes Validation of genomics where possible Final set of proofs for end of July meeting