Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck

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Presentation transcript:

Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck CariCOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook March-April-May 2015 and June-July-August 2015 CIMH Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck NMHS’s acknowledged for rainfall data delivery and participation in modelling efforts! Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

MAM rainfall

CPT probabilistic FMA rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over October (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library) 2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over October 3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , October initialisation) 4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic 5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library) Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

Experiment 1

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = January SST observations 1982-2015 140E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 4 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.115 Limited!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 1 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 2

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = January SST observations 1982-2014 90-20W and 0-30N (i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 3 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.091 Very Limited!!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 2 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 3

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = MAM simulated SST 1982-2014 140E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, February initialisation] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 3 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.117 Limited!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Experiment 3 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 4

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = MAM simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N (i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, February initialisation] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 3 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.072 Very Limited!!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Experiment 4 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 5

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = MAM simulated rainfall 100-40W and 5S-35N (i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 464 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 5; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 417 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.047 Limited!!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Experiment 5 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below