SA Economic Indicators Report updated: May 2016 Next update: June 2016 SA Economic Indicators

SA Economic Indicators What is the SA Economic Indicators report? Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month. How to read this report Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay. Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months. e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015 GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015) Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.

SA Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence Consumers upbeat due to World Cup euphoria Boom period – High levels of GDP growth CCI reaches 14-year low 2008/2009 Recession SOURCE: Bureau for Economic Research | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date: Q1 – April, Q2 – July, Q3 – October, Q4 – January

SA Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence COMMENTARY Consumer confidence improved from -14 in Q4/2015 to -9 in Q1/2016, which can be attributed to the resilience in consumers rating of their own financial positions and an improvement in the rating of the economic outlook from record lows The improvement could be attributed to the drop in petrol price, the supposed end to load-shedding, the reappointment of Pravin Gordhan as the Finance Minister and the respite in student protests over tuition fees Although an improvement on last years Q4 index of -14, it is still below the lowest reading of the 2008/9 recession of -6 Consumer confidence was not positive for the entire 2015 year, and most consumers believe the economic prospects for South Africa will not improve this year, but rather deteriorate further Key factors that influenced consumer negativity towards the economy during the quarter: Unstable exchange rate Rising interest rates Weak leadership visible in South African government Low business confidence levels Political turmoil Rising food prices Ongoing drought Increase in tax rate Rising unemployment Slump in international commodity prices This negative sentiment signals a greater reluctance to spend and use credit, behaviour that will be unsupportive of economic growth, especially in a state of stagflation

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Maryla Masojada | Head Analyst Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst