The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Gulf of Tehuantepec Surge on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015 Lance.

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The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Gulf of Tehuantepec Surge on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015 Lance Bosart1, Philippe Papin1, Andrew Levine2, and Alicia Bentley1 1Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany, State University of New York 2NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology – 18 April 2016

Motivation TC Patricia in the east Pacific is the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere (185 kt, 872 hPa) Its development resulted from a complex interaction of different scale features Active phase of ENSO/MJO Predecessor Large Scale Circulation Gap Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec These features resulted in significant flooding and societal impact before Patricia developed Focus on the synoptic and mesoscale evolution that preceded Patricia’s development

Motivation ITCZ WAVE 1 WAVE 2 850-hPa winds (vectors, m s-1) and curvature vorticity (shading, 10-5 s-1) 0000 UTC 13 Oct 2015 WAVE 1 WAVE 2 ITCZ

Motivation Large low-level cyclonic circulations occasionally form over Central America Central American Gyres (CAGs) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can form within these large scale circulations TC Patricia (2015) Strongest hurricane ever recorded in western hemisphere 850-hPa time-mean winds (vectors, m s-1) from 15 Oct – 20 Oct 2015 H CAG

Motivation H CAG

Datasets 0.5o Climate Forecast Center Reanalysis (v2) 0.25o Global Forecast System Analysis ASCAT Satellite Passes (when available) Surface METAR Observations

Beginnings Continuity Plot: Easterly Wave #1 1200 UTC 16 Oct 2015

Beginnings Continuity Plot: Easterly Wave #2 1200 UTC 16 Oct 2015

Antecedents CAG P

CAG Development CAG P 0000 UTC 14 October 2015

CAG Development CAG P 0000 UTC 14 October 2015

Gap Winds

Patricia’s Development

Summary Schematic

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