From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market

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From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Line height: Average capital gains on local and out-of-town second-house purchases made in Phoenix. Line width: Number of purchases. Sample: January 2000 to December 2007. Reads: “While local second-house buyers who bought in March 2005 earned nearly an 15% per year capital gain on their purchase, out-of-town second-house buyers who bought in the same month earned only a 10% per year capital gain on their purchases.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Response of house-price appreciation rates to a 1%-point increase in the fraction of sales made to out-of-town second-house buyers in Las Vegas. Horizontal line in left-most panel denotes the cumulative effect of a 1%-point increase in out-of-town second-house-buyer demand on house-price appreciation rates over the first 12 months. Reads: “In the 12 months following a 1%-point increase in out-of-town second-house-buyer demand, the house-price appreciation rate in Las Vegas will be roughly 1.9%-points higher.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Response of IAR appreciation rates to a 1%-point increase in the fraction of sales made to out-of-town second-house buyers in Las Vegas. Horizontal line in left-most panel denotes the cumulative effect of a 1%-point increase in out-of-town second-house-buyer demand on IAR appreciation rates over the first 12 months. Reads: “In the 12 months following a 1%-point increase in out-of-town second-house-buyer demand, the IAR appreciation rate in Las Vegas will be roughly 1.7%-points higher.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Response of house-price appreciation rates to a 1%-point increase in the fraction of all sales made to local second-house buyers in Las Vegas. Horizontal line in left-most panel denotes the cumulative effect of a 1%-point increase in local second-house-buyer demand on house-price appreciation rates over the first 12 months. Reads: “In the 12 months following a 1%-point increase in local second-house buyer demand, house-price appreciation rates in Las Vegas are roughly 0.86%-points higher.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market gOoT and gLocal are the realized capital gains for out-of-town and local second-house buyers in units of %/yr. Reads: “Out-of-town second-house buyers investing in Las Vegas in March 2004 realized an 11% per year capital gain; whereas, local second-house buyers realized a 22% per year capital gain.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Median price of the primary residences of out-of-town second-house buyers and of all buyers living in San Francisco in units of $100k over the time period from January 2000 to December 2007. The price of the primary residences of out-of-town second house buyers living in San Francisco is computed by scaling up the most recent sale price by price index. Reads: “In January 2005, the median value of all single-family-houses purchased in San Francisco was $600k. By contrast, the median value of the primary residences of out-of-town second-house buyers who lived in San Francisco and bought a second house in another MSA in January 2005 was only $555k.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market We compute MSA-specific GDP using data from the BEA as the product of the per capita income in each MSA times the population. Reads: “The sum of the sales prices on out-of-town second-house buyers' purchases in Las Vegas exceeded 5% of the GDP for the entire MSA in 2004.” From: Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market Rev Financ Stud. 2015;29(2):486-522. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv061 Rev Financ Stud | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.