Bigger Hurricanes: Bigger Hurricanes: A Consequence A Consequence of Climate Change? Bigger Hurricanes: A Consequence of Climate Change? Ruth Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Ruth Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Major Factors in Tropical Storm Activity: Tropical Storm frequency and intensity are predicted to rise with the global thermometer Major Factors in Tropical Storm Activity: ENSO pattern in Pacific Tropical Stratospheric Winds (QBO) Upper Ocean Heat Content SST are running 1-2 degC above normal (100-yr record) in Atlantic, Indian and W.Pacific Hurricane Ivan Sept. 13, 2004

Above normal hurricane season forecast for 2004 Tuesday, June 1, 2004 Posted: 1:05 PM EDT (1705 GMT) (CNN) -- U.S. hurricane forecasters Monday predicted a busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season based on a trend of above-normal activity during seven of the last nine seasons. Above-normal hurricane season forecast Tuesday, June 1, 2004 Posted: 1:05 PM EDT (1705 GMT) (CNN) -- U.S. hurricane forecasters Monday predicted a busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season based on a trend of above-normal activity during seven of the last nine seasons. Above normal hurricane season forecast for 2004 The 2004 season is currently running 175% above the 50-year average in the Atlantic. Last spring saw the first ever recorded Hurricane in the South Atlantic.

29 June 2004 Pacific Typhoons The Pacific is experiencing unprecedented number and intensity of typhoons.

-Isamu Yagai, Japan Meteorological Agency Japan's Record 7th Typhoon; The Death Toll Is at Least 31 By JAMES BROOKE NY Times: September 9, 2004 "This year, the number of typhoons has been unusually big," Mobutaka Mannoji, director of the typhoon center, said Wednesday in an interview. He attributed the increase to surface water temperatures in the Pacific that have been nearly two degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal. Japan also has had an unusually hot summer this year, with temperatures in Tokyo remaining above 86 degrees Fahrenheit for a 41-day period that ended in mid-August. "I can conclude there will be more typhoon activities, either in terms of more numbers or in larger sizes," he said, drawing on his interpretation of 110 years of Japanese temperature and rainfall data. "I think the same thing is happening with regards to the hurricanes in the U.S.“ -Isamu Yagai, Japan Meteorological Agency Rising greenhouse gas concentrations and the warmest ocean temperatures in the 100 year record -- in conjunction with other favorable factors – are implicated in the recent trend of increased tropical storm activity.

Sea Surface Temperatures on Sept 14 2004

In the last half of the 20th century, it is clear that the world oceans are heating up. The oceans have absorbed about 30 times more heat than the atmosphere since 1955 Oceans 18.2 x 1022 J Atmosphere 6.6 x 1021 J Levitus et al. Science, 2000

Carbon Dioxide levels are a likely contributor to global warming. Present CO2: 379 ppmv

Greenhouse Gas levels in the atmosphere and planetary surface temperatures are inextricably linked CarbonDioxide Methane

Global Climate Change is not just about temperature It is expected that the planetary water cycle – Evaporation/Condensation/Precipitation and Freezing/Melting – will be altered as a result of global warming. There is ample evidence of it already happening…

Salinity distributions have been changing in the last few decades Low latitude surface waters have become markedly more saline Water masses formed at high latitudes have become fresher

Summer Arctic Sea Ice 1979 2000 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Greenland is melting NY Times June 8, 2004

Precipitation patterns are changing on global scales…

Increased river discharge Increased precipitation is perhaps the dominant factor elevating continental runoff into the Arctic basins which is contributing to salinity decreases in the N. Atlantic and N. Pacific.

IPCC temperature projections Globally, temperatures are projected to rise an additional 2 – 5°C in the 21st Century We are here From IPCC Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

What should be done about Global Warming and impending Climate Change? A scientist’s perspective…… What should be done about Global Warming and impending Climate Change? Curb fossil fuel emissions Increase funding for Climate Research and Observing programs Invest in development of predictive climate models.