Where do Fish Larvae Go when Spawned in the ABT? CariCOOS – CFMC Where do Fish Larvae Go when Spawned in the ABT? August 24, 2016 CFMC 157th Meeting, San Juan PR Jorge E. Capella, Miguel Canals, Estefanía Quiñones, Fabian Garcia and Carlos Sosa

What did we do? AMSEAS and ROMS model output and HF Radar observations (velocity fields) were used to determine the path of dispersal (or particle trajectories) of large numbers of virtual eggs and early larvae from the three marine protected areas (ABT MPAs) off the west coast of Puerto Rico, and from the spawning aggregation region at La Parguera. Connectivity Sites  Source - Recruitment Bajo de Sico [A] BdS Tourmaline Bank [B] TBa Abrir La Sierra [C] ALS La Parguera [D] LPa  Recruitment Los Rabos - Aguadilla LRa Pichincho Pin Desecheo Des Mona LMo Cabo Rojo CRo Guanica Gca Guayanilla Gya Virtual particles were released at the four source locations from December 1, 2014 to May 31, 205, which covers the spawning season for many commercially important snapper and grouper species including the red hind (Epinephelus guttatus) and the mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis). Surface drifter and ADCP field validation of model and radar time series were performed.

Some Specifications Particle = egg and early larvae Planktonic stages only (non swimming, non feeding) 14-day virtual particle trajectories Floating particles (those from many targeted species actually do) Target species are deemed to be commercially important, like groupers and snappers Focus on MPA regional scales, not on small scales End results expressed as connectivity matrices "All models are wrong but some are useful“, George Box (1978)

Previous Work Examples

Visualization of a 30-day simulated coral spawning event based on NOAA’s Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) ocean current data starting on August 21, 2011. Schill SR, Raber GT, Roberts JJ, Treml EA, Brenner J, et al. (2015) No Reef Is an Island: Integrating Coral Reef Connectivity Data into the Design of Regional-Scale Marine Protected Area Networks. PLoS ONE 10(12): e0144199. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0144199 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0144199

Something about Currents in the Bajo de Sico Strong semidiurnal tidal flows Northward mean Same general pattern at AlS and TBa

AMSEAS – ROMS Models CariCOOS AMSEAS Movie CariCOOS ROMS Movie

CariCOOS HFR Network CariCOOS HFR

Drifter Trajectories and Validation vs. HFR Full area Mona Passage

Particle Tracking Methods HFR – Random Flight ROMS – LTRANS AMSEAS – Local Code All use Matlab as front end Particles released continuously at 1-hour intervals from 12/1/14 to 5/31/15 Thousands of virtual trajectories per method Particles released during observed spawning aggregations (Dr. Scharer provided this information) Graphical PTM is being developed by F. Garcia

AMSEAS Particle Tracking

AMSEAS Particle Tracking

ROMS Particle Tracking

AMSEAS Particle Tracking

AMSEAS Particle Tracking

Mesoscale Eddies in the Caribbean Sea Geostrophic Flow - SSHA

Particle Densities - AMSEAS

Connectivity Matrices - AMSEAS

Particle Densities TBa – Spawning - AMSEAS

Particle Densities BdS – Spawning - AMSEAS

Particle Densities AlS – Spawning - ROMS

Preliminary Observations Consistent particle advection patterns from the three velocity fields: ROMS, AMSEAS and HFR General meridional particle advection along the west coast of PR, with a northward mean Westward particle advection along the south-southwest shelf and northwards into the Mona Passage Westward particle advection upon exiting the Mona Passage Non-deterministic mesoscale eddies in the Caribbean Sea, particularly anticyclonic eddies, may impede local recruitment from spawning aggregations in the Mona Passage The three west coast MPAs (ABT) are strongly connected among themselves and with other known fishing grounds in the Mona Passage

Questions