SE503 Advanced Project Management

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SE503 Advanced Project Management Dr. Ahmed Sameh, Ph.D. Professor, CS & IS Project Management Issues

History 1960’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Agile PM PERT, CPM, Monte Carlo simulation 1980’s Personal computers, PM software Teams, TQM, Concurrent Engineering 1990’s Widespread use of MS-Project Critical Chain PM Fuzzy Critical Path Method 2000 Agile PM Nothing has happened in 40 years?

Some PM Issues From “Critical Chain” Chapters 1-10 Will serve as a set of problems that we need to solve Will explore tools to solve these

Project Management is Relevant Much of what we do at work (or home) are projects Most projects fail to meet: Scope expectations Budget expectations Schedule expectations How do we define project success?

The Schedule is a Worthy Goal Finishing on time (or early) can be worth a large amount of money Economic benefits Market entry (new product) Finishing late can dramatically reduce project economic benefits Is schedule the most important aspect?

Uncertainty is the Culprit Uncertainty leads to overestimation Tasks expand to consume the available time/money Student’s syndrome Parkinson’s law Are tasks really overestimated by 50-100%? Can we improve behavior?

Gaussian Model Does Not Fit PM Normal curve is symmetrical Project variables are usually skewed Normal curve is infinite Most project variables have a practical minimum Most project variables have a practical maximum

Better Choices Beta distribution (PERT) Triangle distribution (approximation) How do we estimate the parameters?

Focusing on Cost is not Enough Cost cutting often comes at the expense of schedule or quality Reducing cost can damage the overall economic performance of a project How does this happen?

Early Start or Late Start? Early start (Push) Start all tasks as soon as possible Protects against delays Traditional method Late Start (JIT) Start all tasks as late as possible Improves focus on tasks Maximizes return on investment Minimizes damage, loss, effects of change Which is best?

Progress Reporting is Flawed Progress is often non-linear (80/20) Reports should focus on what remains, not what has been done (time, not %) Progress reporting causes people to lose focus on the overall goal Is this true? Why does it happen?

Summary Most projects fail to meet objectives Traditional project management is flawed Estimating Focus on cost Progress reporting Human behavior Uncertainty cannot be ignored