Western Drought Activities

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Presentation transcript:

Western Drought Activities Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland Oregon 2007 Oct 10 – 11

Calibrating the Oregon Drought Index Sustained Drought Normal Dryness Severe Drought Moderate Drought

Last 30 Days

How to get more dots, faster.

Opening page acis.dri.edu/wxcoder Joint RCC/NWS/NCDC project

Welcome to Station Named Demo

Form presented to station WFO Reno Now enter observations

Form with 2 days opened, precip times, remarks

Printable copy for local storage

Observer error, logical inconsistency, TMIN > TOBS

Bad Snow Depth Observer entered 1.0 inch Whole inches only

Hmmmm… This is a monthly extreme temperature. Are you sure ?? Please confirm.

Email sent to site administrator Monthly extreme exceeded This may merit further attention.

More complex station This one also has soil and river information

rcc-acis.org

ACIS Brochure available at rcc-acis.org

Westmap: U Arizona, DRI/WRCC, OSU NOAA – NCTP …CLIMAS/WRCC/CAP Can be expanded to cover additional states www.wrcc.dri.edu/PROJECTS.html

States, counties, hydro basins, climate divisions, grid squares, stakeholder pixels Uses 4 km (maybe soon 2 km) PRISM Monthly Time Series 1895 - last month

September-August 12-month Precipitation Gallatin County, Montana With 9-Year Running Mean

June-July-August Summer Precipitation Luna County, New Mexico With 10-Year Running Mean

Sierra Nevada 12 Months Thru September 2007

Sierra Nevada Winter-Centered 12-Month July - June Precipitation Thru June 2007

Tioga Pass. 2007 April 5. 1355 PT. 9943 ft.

Tioga Pass. 2007 Saturday May 12. 1455 PT. 9943 ft.

July-June Precipitation South Coastal California 1895-1896 thru 2006-2007

Running mean plotted at end of 5-year period. Reconstructed natural flow at Lees Ferry. Water Years 1906-2006. White: preliminary estimates. Running mean plotted at end of 5-year period. WY 2006-07 estimate (Aug 07) approx 69 percent

Lake Powell Storage Through August 29, 2007 Currently 50.2 % full Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005

Lake Powell Elevation Through August 29, 2007 Water level on August 29, 2007 was 3603.83 ft, -96.17 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

Average of 19 climate models. 2007. Figure by Gabriel Vecchi. www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/science.shtml R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1139601

Seager et al, 2007. Average of 19 climate models. Figure by Naomi Naik. www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/science.shtml

Yesterday Tomorrow Seager et al, 2007.

Estimated effects of climate change on Colorado River streamflow (Lees Ferry): Small decrease (0-8 percent by mid-century) Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2007 Large decrease (up to 40 percent) Hoerling and Eischeid 2007 Moderate decrease (in between) Seager et al 2007 None of these show streamflow going up! B. Any decrease is a source of concern ! C. We have to resolve these differences !

? Is the current Southwest drought a once-or-twice-a-century drought like those of the past 500 years … ? ? … or … a harbinger of things to come, a different type of drought that we have not observed before ? ?

Getting NIDIS off the ground. Relation of NIDIS to the Climate Test Bed.

Thank You ! 20 February 2007

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