Policy Update Joe L. Outlaw Regents Professor & Extension Economist

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Presentation transcript:

Policy Update Joe L. Outlaw Regents Professor & Extension Economist Co-Director, AFPC Southern Extension Committee Meetings September 25, 2017

Presentation Outline Do We Have More or Less Money Than Previous Farm Bills? What Does the June 2017 CBO Baseline Look Like? Where Are We in the Process? Conclusions Farm Policy

Congressional Research Service, Actual Farm Bill Spending and Cost Estimates, October 7, 2010

Congressional Research Service, Actual Farm Bill Spending and Cost Estimates, October 7, 2010

CBO Estimated Outlays, Million Dollars Title 2014 Farm Bill Score 2014-2023 June 2017 CBO Score 2018-2017 Commodities 44,458 58,720 Conservation 57,600 59,804 Trade 3,574 3,056 Nutrition 756,433 679,181 Credit -2,240 -5,398 Rural Development 241 65 Research, Extension, and Related Matters 1,256 879 Forestry 13 10 Energy 1,122 751 Horticulture 1,755 1,812 Crop Insurance 89,827 77,419 Miscellaneous 2,363 2,199 Total Outlays 956,401 878,498

June 2017 CBO Baseline by Title Mandatory Spending Only Million $

Corn Price Projections from CBO, FAPRI and USDA

CBO Prices Used in Baseline The CBO price forecast would yield these Benchmark Prices 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 5.29 4.79 3.95 3.70 3.71 3.79 3.85 3.88 With Average Yields, MYA Price Would Have to Be Below These Levels to Trigger a Payment 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 4.55 4.12 3.40 3.18 3.19 3.26 3.31 3.33

Soybean Price Projections from CBO, FAPRI and USDA

Wheat Price Projections from CBO, FAPRI and USDA

All Rice Price Projections from CBO, FAPRI and USDA

Upland Cotton Price Projections from CBO, FAPRI and USDA

Peanut Price Projections from CBO and FAPRI

Actual and Projected ARC and PLC Payments Source: FAPRI January 2017 Baseline

Projected ARC and PLC Payments by Crop Source: FAPRI January 2017 Baseline

Where Are We in the Process? Almost all commodity groups testified they want both ARC and PLC Many want an increase in reference prices Fix county yields used in ARC House and Senate have yet to release their bills

Probability of Triggering PLC Payment at Different Reference Prices Or said another way, out of the 500 price draws for a year… what percent would trigger a payment

Back of the Envelope Calculations of Wheat PLC Payments at Different Reference Prices

What I am Worrying About What Are You Willing to Give up for Your Higher Reference Price? Payment Timing Are There Any Changes to Crop Insurance You Want? Or any Changes You Can’t Live With?

Thanks!!! Joe Outlaw joutlaw@tamu.edu 979-845-5913 www.afpc.tamu.edu