2nd VAAC Best Practices Seminar – report to IVATF/4 ICAO Headquarters, Montreal 12-13 June 2012

Review: themes from 1st Seminar “Visible Ash” and how an area of ash is analysed (or forecast) in Volcanic Ash Advisories. Data exchange, the role of the ‘Lead VAAC’, collaborative decision-making, and forecast validation Articulating forecast confidence/uncertainty Increased mutual understanding Better outcomes

Example Confidence Chart – from Wellington Finally, combining both ideas, an image may be produced that will provide information on the likelihood of the horizontal and vertical extent of ash changing between issues. The Flight Planner would then be able to identify those areas that are most likely to change between forecasts and plan accordingly. I would encourage discussion to take place around confidence levels and would also like to thank Emile Jansons, Manager Darwin VAAC, for ideas and assistance in this area. 3

VULNERABILITY TO MONITOR VOLCANIC ASH From Argentina’s presentation VULNERABILITY TO MONITOR VOLCANIC ASH GOES-SA Cancellation: There is a great concern about cancellation of GOES-SA. Currently the image reception is very erratic in response to the satellite present situation which will end up in its total cancellation in the near future. Alternative is GOES-E which covers the whole area of responsibility only every 3 hours and up to 45° South (approx.) every 30 min. Nevertheless, this smaller sector is canceled every time GOES-E is requested to monitor severe weather events over the US. The lack of an appropriate channel to detect volcanic ash is the main source of vulnerability in the ability of Buenos Aires VAAC to monitor VA in its area of responsibility (CH5 instead of CH6 is needed!). Since May 5th, we began to receive and process satellite imagery of GOES-E

NO DATA IN THIS REGION NO DATA IN THIS REGION NO DATA IN THIS REGION

Agreement on Southern Hemisphere coordination test – 4 VAAC circumpolar

Tokyo VAAC case study Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH in the part of North of Kamchatkan Peninsula on October 27th and 28th in 2010 I’ll introduce the eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and SHEVELUCH in the part of northern Kamchatkan Peninsula. There are many active volcanoes in Kamchatkan Peninsula, which is located at the north-east part of our AoR. Especially, SHEVELUCH, KLIUCHEVSKOI and BEZYMIANNY have made major eruptions several times a year, and have spread ash clouds in wide areas. The ash clouds emitted from these volcanoes can easily go into the AoR of Anchorage VAAC. For this case study, I’d like to talk about eruptions on October 27th and 28th in 2010. 7 7

Record of the eruptions KLIUCHEVSKOI SHEVELUCH 1059Z VA FL210 Detection on the MTSAT imagery 2010Z Eruption FL230 Report from KEMSD (Received at 2024Z) 2231Z Eruption FL230 Report from KEMSD (Received at 2327Z) Time is unknown VA FL300-FL330 Report from KVERT PAWU and AVO (Received 22-23UTC) 0359Z-0459Z Ceasing emissions from the crater VA is indistinguishable from VA emitted from SHEVELUCH VA FL250 Detection on MTSAT imagery from KLIUCHEVSKOI 0619Z Issue Final VAA (Handover to SHEVELUCH) 0615Z Issue VAA including VA emitted from This is a record of the eruptions. In this case, the eruptions of KLIUCHEVSKOI and SHEVELUCH occurred almost at the same time. First, Tokyo VAAC detected an ash cloud emitted from KLIUCHEVSKOI on MTSAT imagery at night. From the satellite imagery, the height of the ash was estimated about 21,000 (Twenty-one thousand) feet. Another eruption was reported by KEMSD, a seismological observatory in Russian in the morning, while the KLIUCHEVSKOI’s eruption still continued. Next, Tokyo VAAC received information on a volcanic ash of SHEVELUCH from volcanological and seismological observatory and MWO. Tokyo VAAC could not detect an ash cloud from SHEVELUCH on MTSAT imagery, although the reported height of the ash was over 30,000(Thirty thousand) feet. The eruption of SHEVELUCH continued and the ash cloud was detected on MTSAT imagery about 3-4 hours later. The ash clouds from these two volcanoes were drifted to east and combined. So they became indistinguishable with each other.   8 8

Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX Sheets to request handover to Anchorage VAAC. Record of handover Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX to Anchorage VAAC. Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX Sheets to request handover to Anchorage VAAC. Tokyo VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in our area of responsibility. 28/0615Z VAA099 VA FL250 28/0815Z VAA001 Text only 28/1149Z VAA100 FL250 28/1310Z VAA002 28/1817Z VAA101 Tokyo Anchorage Anchorage VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in their area of responsibility. Tokyo:VAA100 Anchorage:VAA002 Next, I’ll talk about handover of VAA issuance. Ash clouds from volcanoes in Kamchatkan peninsula can easily go into the AoR of Anchorage VAAC. Tokyo VAAC always sends FAX to inform the presence of ash clouds when ash clouds are approaching to the Anchorage’s area. In this example, the ash cloud spread to east and some part of the ash cloud went into the Anchorage’s area. Therefore, Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX to inform the presence of ash clouds after we issued VAAs. Then, at first, Anchorage VAAC issued the VAA001 to inform that ash cloud was going into their area. And then, after judged that some part of ash cloud already went into the Anchorage’s area, Tokyo VAAC decided to do a handover. To request handover, Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX to Anchorage VAAC. The lower left figure is the images which we sent to Anchorage VAAC. Anchorage VAAC accepted the handover request and issued the VAA only for the ash cloud in their area. The lower light figure shows the first VAG which Anchorage VAAC issued after the handover. Anchorage VAAC issued the VAA and VAG for the ash cloud in their area of responsibility. After that, Tokyo VAAC and Anchorage VAAC issued VAAs only for the ash cloud in each AoR.   9 9

HRS(Handover Request Sheet) Tokyo VAAC uses the preformed fax-sheet that called HRS written in Japanese and English to bridge language gap. Tokyo VAAC sends HRS with issued VAA, VAG and VAGI. Tokyo VAAC always provides information of ash clouds to Anchorage VAAC, when an ash cloud could be expected to go into their area. We mainly use preformed fax-sheet that is called HRS written in Japanese and English to bridge language gap. We send the HRS attached with issued VAA, VAG and VAGI to inform Anchorage VAAC of actual situation of ash clouds. The VAGI is a product only for domestic users, which describe more precise position of present ash clouds. If Anchorage VAAC accepts a handover request, they send us reply using preformed bilingual fax-sheet. 10 VAGI shows latest area of ash clouds. 10

Part covered with meteorological clouds Difficult to determine the covered area by meteorological clouds When applying the criteria of confidence level, we have to consider the existence of meteorological clouds. Now suppose that middle to high level meteorological clouds covers some amount of area of ahs clouds. The areas surrounded by aqua line show middle to high level meteorological clouds. When there are a lot of meteorological clouds, it might be difficult to apply the criteria to the area covered with meteorological clouds. Additionally, some parts of white ash cloud on the split imagery still can be identifiable in the area covered area by meteorological clouds. It is not known exactly how much thickness of meteorological clouds affect visibility of ash clouds. Thick black line – Prediction & Observation Aqua line – Covered areas by meteorological clouds 11 11

Confidence Levels In this case, Confidence Level defines as Mid. 12 More than 2/3 of polygon contains identified ash cloud -> High Between one third and two thirds of ash cloud's edges discernible -> Mid Ash cloud top reported or measured objectively -> High In this case, Confidence Level defines as Mid. In this situations, how we can judge the confidence level? More than 2/3 (two-thirds) of polygon contains identified ash cloud, so confidence level about dimension is High. Between 1/3(one-third) and 2/3(two-thirds) of ash cloud's edges is discernible, so confidence level about edge is Mid. Ash cloud top measured objectively, so confidence level about height is High. Thick black line – Prediction & Observation Aqua line – Covered areas by meteorological clouds 12 12

Confidence Levels In this case, Confidence Level define as Mid. 13 For these bases, confidence level of this ash cloud is to defined as Mid in this example. 13 13

Approach of Darwin VAAC for Confidence Levels The confidence level of a polygon edge Next, I’ll introduce a kind of “advanced” approach of Darwin VAAC for confidence levels. Their proposal is that confidence levels are determined for the individual edges of the polygon. Let’s try to apply this approach in this example. The areas surrounded by aqua line show middle to high level meteorological clouds. Black boundary is discernible for greater than 2/3(two-thirds) of the length of the edge. Blue boundary is discernible for 1/3(one-thirds) to 2/3(two-thirds) of the length of the edge. Red boundary is discernible for less than 1/3(one-thirds) of the length of the edge. Black line – High confidence Blue line – Med confidence Red line – Low conficence 14 14

Approach of Darwin VAAC for Confidence Levels As a result, confidence level of each edge are like this. I think that this is an interesting approach, but there would be some points which we need to carefully consider. From the user’s point of view, it should be clarified more on some points, such as; ‐ how they can understand the risk inside of the polygon. ‐ availability in the cockpit and necessity of gray‐scale version . Anyway, I think this kind of approach is very interesting, and worth future discussion. Black line – High confidence Blue line – Med confidence Red line – Low confidence 15 15

London VAAC – hands on case study

Discussion….

Produced by Fred Prata.

Some insights… VAAC best practice is... The expert evaluation of the best available sources of meteorological and vulcanological information: qualititative and quantitative satellite data model output ground and airborne based in-situ and remotely sensed observations pilot reports ‪using (where possible) collaborative approaches, to derive authoritative, high quality, evidence based and globally consistent analysis and forecasts.

CDM CDAF = Collaborative Decision Analysis and Forecasting Output from the CDAF becomes the input to “real” CDM. Need to establish rules for CDAF and document these rules in either the Handbook or other document. Focus of CDAF includes the ash cloud at the VAAC boundaries, as well as tops, bases and horizontal extent. No CDAF during the initial eruption, but rather occur once the event is ongoing, but certainly within 24 hours. Define a common library of English terms to be used, so that all VAACs, regardless of their native language, can collaborate and exchange information.

CDM Need a collaborative tool (visualization and interactive tool) to achieve good results. Tool can be used to share information, consult with others, and used by others to follow the process. Membership: Keep the size small for analysis of ash cloud (perhaps 2-3 VAACs and Met Watch Offices)

OBS VA CLD(T=0) for Confidence levels Expand to incorporate nil ash – may have to be treated differently Include temporal considerations Decision on when the ash has dissipated below ‘discernability’ More discussion of evidence (pilot reports, strength of animation, qualitiative versus quantitative Input from VASAG on new technologies (ref discussion in IVATF) Confidence Level Criteria for T=0 High (meets all 3) More than 2/3 of polygon contains identified/discernible ash cloud , and Ash cloud edges( with respect to polygon) mostly (2/3) discernable, and plume height and/or ash cloud top reported or measured (objectively) (e.g., Radar, Lidar, satellite, etc) Medium (meets 2) Between 1/3 and 2/3 of polygon contains identifiable/discernible ash cloud. Between one third and two thirds of ash cloud’s edges discernable Plume height and/or ash cloud top estimated from recent data (<12 hours) Low Less than1/3 of polygon contains identiable/discernable ash cloud. Ash cloud edges uncertain. Plume height and/or ash cloud top unconfirmed This table was proposed as the basis for confidence levels at the last best practice seminar. We have to judge the confidence in three aspects: dimension, edge and height. 27 Excerpt from BPS/1 27

Volcanic ash confidence level for time T+0 The forecaster should analyse both single and multi-spectral satellite imagery Consideration of “good” real-time observations. A decision amongst VAACs could take place to define the term “good”. The forecaster should consider the effect that the presence of poorly predicted meteorology (e.g. tropical weather) has on volcanic ash analysis. There should be “strong agreement” between observations sources. A decision amongst VAACs could take place to define “strong agreement”. The forecaster should have a thorough understanding of the VAAC’s observational sources, including the limitations. Standardised guidelines detailing how a VAAC goes about deciding upon confidence levels is required.

Analysis process Consultation should occur with end users to ensure that confidence levels are fully understood by the wider aviation community. Confidence levels could be affected by which volcano observatory is issuing the required VONA. The steps that a forecaster would follow when deciding upon certain confidence levels should be transparent. Trialling of agreed processes involving end users should occur before inclusion as part of official VAAC operations. A further comment was made about potentially using the RMK section of the VAA to convey the associated confidence level in the required text format. Concern around the additional workload that deciding on confidence levels may bring to operations. VAACs should possess the same operational abilities as those VAACs for which they provide backup.

Volcanic ash graphic presentation • Education is essential • only 2 levels of confidence are necessary o High (black) o Low (red) • horizontal and Vertical extent should be considered • No obvious problems to using colour • Technically achievable if VAG is available in XML/GML o Rapid progress/implementation is possible as colour version doesn’t contradict Annex 3 • Black & white version is what we have now , colour would be an Enhancement only

Resourcing Issue: The funding of the IAVW, its operations and development, is becoming increasingly difficult. Future: There is expected to be increasing pressure for more sophisticated VAAC operations, remote sensing systems, and the funding of a “primary aviation” volcano observing network.

Notes on funding The contemporary aviation meteorological system is suffering increasing opportunity cost losses in funding comparatively new IAVW responsibilities within reducing resources. Governments are unlikely to redress this situation. Other funding mechanisms and related management systems need to be explored. There is experience to be drawn from in areas such as SADIS funding. There are other international initiatives that are funded and managed by international bodies that should be investigated (eg: World Bank operations). The risk in any global system of funding will need to deal with aggregated business risk.

The way forward - funding Steps Clearly a major business case development exercise is needed. One of the first steps that can be progressed now in support of any developing business case is the commissioning of a full cost benefit analysis. This in itself will need funding and management. Develop-ment Funding Basic economic theory suggests that, given the private good nature of the IAVW product, that the user community should fund this process. There is some argument that the outcome could be considered a public good but this is unlikely to be successfully advanced with governments.

The future in VAAC science/operations… Strong need to push the leading edge Best practices  WMO Workshop process Quality management / continuous improvement