Let the Spending Begin Although there have been disruptions, turmoil, bankruptcies and store closings, the retail sector is still in good shape, which has resulted in the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasting a 3.6 to 4.0% increase in 2017 holiday retail spending. Deloitte is filled with even more Christmas shopping spirit, with a forecast of a 4–4.5% increase for the November–January period, which could total $1.05 trillion. Its online sales forecast is 18–21%, or a total of $114 billion. AlixPartners’ prediction is more aligned with the NRF, at a 3.5–4.4% increase, as is RetailNext, at +3.8%, and a 14.9% increase in online holiday sales, while eMarketer’s forecast from August is 3.1%, but with e-commerce sales increasing 16.6%.

A Near-Perfect Holiday Shopping Calendar For the late 2017 holiday shopping season, there are 32 days from Thanksgiving through December 24, and, more importantly, Christmas is a Monday, which means the weekend of December 23/24 will be one of the best opportunities for retailers for years. According to BestBlackFriday.com, 21 million, or 8.3% of all projected holiday shoppers had already completed their shopping by late September, but that is less than 2016’s 9.6%, so the remaining projected total is 62 million. A September Market Track survey found that Thanksgiving Day will attract fewer in-store shoppers this year, or just 30%, compared to 50% during 2016, while a Q3 PwC survey revealed only 35% said they will shop Black Friday, compared to 51% last year.

Holiday Shoppers Know What They Want RetailMeNot’s 2017 Holiday Retail Trends and Guide reports that surveyed consumers said they would spend an average of $330 on children’s gifts; significant other, $196; parents, $105; siblings, $90; and best friends, 57%. RetailMeNot’s survey also revealed that the top 6 categories shoppers will search for holiday deals will be clothes/shoes, 53%; electronic, 51%; toys, 32%; jewelry, 16%; restaurants/entertainment, 15%; and travel, 15%. Consumers’ top-5, most-important factors when choosing where to shop for holiday gifts are quality of products, 57.8%; lowest prices, 56.6%; location, 55.5%; good availability of products I want to buy, 53.4%; and large choice of products or brands, 48.2%.

Targeting Specific Holiday Shopping Consumer Segments When targeting teens (13–16-years-olds) for holiday shopping, retailers should post content on Instagram (57%) and YouTube (47%), according to PwC’s Holiday Outlook study. Older Gen Xers weren’t far behind, at 54% and 35%, respectively. Research from ThinkNow Research predicts that Latino Americans will spend 33% more and African Americans 39% more for 2017 holiday shopping than last year. In addition, 62% of Latino Americans will use their smartphone for purchases. The PwC study also found that retailers should be targeting Millennial dads (22–35) who are expected to spend more on their families than all other consumer groups, including more on travel, and will make a majority of their purchases online.

Holiday Shoppers Making a Bee Line for Online According to Field Agent’s Fall 2017 Shopper Insights Report, based on more than 14,000 consumer survey responses, “78% are completely or very likely to buy gifts online this holiday season.” The survey respondents listed electronics, at 56%, as the top gift they are most likely to purchase online, with toys and entertainment close seconds at 55% each; followed by clothing/footwear, 51%; wearable accessories, 41%; and gift cards, 36%. The NPD Group’s Holiday Purchase Intentions Survey results indicate that online shoppers plan to spend 70% more than brick-and-mortar-only shoppers, at $793 and $467, respectively.

Santa’s Workshop Has Been Relocated to Amazon It’s hardly surprising that two independent surveys revealed that Amazon will be the #1 online gift- purchasing Website for the 2017 holiday shopping season, and at the same percentage: Fung Global Retail & Tech, 74.8%, and Field Agent, 74%. Better yet (for Amazon), the Fung Global Retail & Tech survey found that Amazon will be #1 of all SOURCES for 2017 holiday gift shopping, including brick-and-mortar stores. Target is a distant second at 48.2%, and Walmart is third at 47.6%. In addition, 81% of respondents to the Field Agent survey said they would use Amazon’s mobile app to plan, shop and/or buy gifts this holiday season; followed by Walmart, 62%; eBay, 34%; Target, 33%; Target Cartwheel, 30%; and Best Buy, 26%.

Advertising Strategies Retailers should plan for specific promotions the weekend before Christmas Monday, such as Early-Bird specials, Clearance-Before-the- Clearance and coupons/discounts for after- Christmas clearance sales with a qualifying weekend purchase. Competing only on a price with discounts and markdowns is eventually a losing proposition. Retailers are more likely to attract consumers willing to spend more with pre-populated shopping lists and personalized recommendations based on past-purchase behaviors.

Advertising Strategies Retailers can maximize average transaction value (ATV) by focusing sales associates’ efforts on upselling and offering accessories and other complementary SKUs to items already purchased. Consumers want shopping experiences; and live music, artisans handcrafting gifts, a cooking class, a wine-and-food-pairing event or a custom jewelry-designing workshop can differentiate any store from the holiday hype and rush at its competitors.

New Media Strategies Use social media pages to share the fun of the holidays, inviting customers and everyone to post videos of their special family holiday occasions, their tree-trimming, how they chose holiday gifts for family members and friends and the excitement of Christmas morning. Even if local retailers can only plan and execute one mobile campaign during the holidays, then it is certainly an excellent opportunity to gain experience marketing in that channel and potentially attracting new shoppers. Emails campaign work well, and are relatively easy to create; so plan for a series of campaigns during the holiday shopping season: Small Business Saturday, November 25; campaigns for the weeks of 12/4, 11 and 18; and one for the pre-Christmas weekend.