Optimum Operation of Reservoirs and Stations Murum – Bakun Cascade Operation and climate resilience Chia Fuk Jing & Mubasher Hussain Hydro Department July 03, 2017 Technical Committee - K ICOLD - 2017

Sarawak

Hydropower in Sarawak Murum HEP (2014) Batang Ai HEP (1985) CFRD – 85 m high Dam Reservoir – 90 km2 Surface powerhouse Installed capacity – 108 MW Bakun HEP (2012) CFRD – 205 m high Dam Reservoir – 695 km2 Installed capacity – 2,400 MW Murum HEP (2014) RCC dam – 141 m high Reservoir 270 km2 Surface Power house Installed capacity – 944 MW

Batang Ai HEP – 108 MW

Bakun HEP – 2,400 MW

Murum HEP – 944 MW

Rajang River Basin

HEPs DATA a) Climatic and Hydrological Data c) Plant Data Station installed capacity Rainfall Turbine Efficiency curve Temperature System headlosses Evaporation Energy requirements Measured flow records Tailwater rating curves b) Physical Data Area capacity curves Spillway Rating curves Full supply Level Minimum operating Level Dam height

Modeling center expansion Horizontal resolution CMIP5 GCMs Modeling center acronym Modeling center expansion Model name Horizontal resolution (lon × lat) Identifier CSIRO-BOM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology, (BOM), Australia ACCESS1.0 1.875° × 1.25° 1 ACCESS1.3 2 BCC Beijing Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, China BCC-CSM1.1 2.8° × 2.8° 3 BCC-CSM1.1m 4 BNU College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, China BNU-ESM 5 CCCma Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada CanESM2 6 CSIRO-QCCCE Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collaboration with the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Australia CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 1.875° × 1.865° 7 NOAA-GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA GFDL-CM3 2.5° × 2.0° 8   GFDL-ESM2G 2.0° × 2.0° 9 GFDL-ESM2M 10 NIMR, KMA National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration South Korea HadGEM2-AO 11 MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre, UK HadGEM2-ES 12 INM Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia INMCM4 2.0° × 1.5° 13 IPSL Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France IPSL-CM5A-MR 2.5° × 1.267° 14 MIROC Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan MIROC5 1.4° × 1.4° 15 MIROC-ESM-CHEM 16 MPI-M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Germany MPI-ESM-LR 17 MPI-ESM-MR 18 MRI Meteorological Research Institute, Japan MRI-CGCM3 1.12° × 1.12° 19 NCC, NMI Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway NorESM1-M 2.5° × 1.9° 20

GCMs –Future Projection Evaluation of Models Historical Data 1976-2005 GCMs –Controlled Run GCMs –Future Projection 2011-2100

Evaluation of Models

Future Precipitation Projection over Rajang River Basin Projected changes in precipitation over RRB for 2020′s (2011-2040) , 2050′s (2041-2070) and 2080′s (2071-2100) compared to baseline period of 1976—2005. Percentage Changes in future precipitation Sub-Basin RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Annual DJF MAM JJA SON Upper RRB 2020's 3 9 1 6 10 7 2 2050's 8 4 -1 14 2080's 11 15 12 18 16 5 Lower RRB -3 -2 13 Percentage Changes in annul precipitation

Shift in Seasonal Precipitation during 2080's Overall increasing in all seasons except September to November MAM and – significantly getting wetter in future June to August December to February March to May September to November

Murum – Bakun Cascade Bakun catchment – 14850 km2 Murum catchment – 2750 km2

Murum –Bakun Cascade –Calibration of Hydrological model Aquarius Forecast to develop AWBM Calibrated period (Jan2003-Dec 2007) Calibrated model was run to simulate historical and future inflows Hydrological Model R2 D (%) E Bakun Dam 0.68 0.03

Murum –Bakun Cascade Historical River Inflows Inflow at Bakun HEP improvement in low flow reduction in high flow Inflow at Murum HEP

Inflow to Murum Dam 2020's 2050's 2080's 1976–2005 2020′s 2050′s   1976–2005 2020′s 2050′s 2080′s inflow (m3/s) Historical 259 RCP4.5 261 255 271 RCP8.5 267 289 2020's 2050's 2080's

Inflow to Bakun Dam 2020's 2050's 2080's 1976–2005 2020′s 2050′s   1976–2005 2020′s 2050′s 2080′s inflow (m3/s) Historical 1377 RCP4.5 1371 1358 1428 RCP8.5 1427 1423 1525 2020's 2050's 2080's

Murum Reservoir Operation

Bakun Reservoir Operation

Hydropower production under Future climate Under RCP4.5 scenario, 2% increase during 2020's, no changes during 2050's and upto 5% increase in hydropower energy during 2080's Under RCP8.5 scenario, upto 5%, 4% and 7% increase in hydropower energy from both plants during 2020's, 2050's and 2080's. RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Thank You www.sarawakenergy.com.my This work is the part of PhD Research conducted by Mubasher Hussain (Senior Hydrologist) Email: mubasherghumman@gmail.com

EVALUATION OF CMIP5 GCMs CMIP5 Model R NSD RMSE MAE Rank (out of 4) R > 0.4 0.7 > NSD > 1.3 RMSE < 135 MAE < 70 ACCESS1.0 0.45 1.24 116 43 4 ACCESS1.3 0.41 1.29 133 61 BCC-CSM1.1 0.07 1.79 184 41 1 BCC-CSM1.1m 0.25 1.12 188 147 BNU-ESM 0.08 0.85 142 86 CanESM2 0.29 0.73 173 145 CSIRO-MK3.6.0 0.14 1.78 175 34 2 GFDL-CM3 0.21 1.56 167 74 GFDL-ESM2G 0.16 1.74 168 14 GFDL-ESM2M 0.54 1.27 127 67 HadGem2-AO 0.36 1.48 140 69 HadGem2-ES 0.20 0.79 155 INMCM4 -0.01 0.81 156 105 IPSL-CM5A-MR 0.02 1.92 196 33 MIROC-ESM-CHEM 0.46 120 MIROC5 0.98 152 84 MPI-ESM-LR -0.26 1.09 181 102 MPI-ESM-MR -0.18 1.26 190 107 MRI-CGCM3 0.19 1.64 164 47 NorESM1-M 0.30 1.20 158