Chapter 5 Bayes’ Theorem

Example 1 A local university offers a review course for those who are planning to take the CPA exam. 30% of the people who took the exam had attended the university’s CPA review course. The results of the test showed that 60% of those that attended the CPA review course passed the exam; while among those who did not attend the course, only 20% passed the exam. An individual passed the exam. What is the probability that individual attended the CPA review course?

Example 2 Old El Paso canning company is currently processing chilies. The manager has found a case of cans that has not ben properly sealed. There are 3 lines that processed cans of this type, and the manager wants to know which line is most likely to be responsible for this mistake. Provide the manager with this information

Example 2 Continued Line Contribution to total Proportion Defective 1 0.40 0.05 2 0.35 0.10 3 0.25 0.07