Provincial Research Ecologist Application of BEC in Climate Change Adaptation: Tree Species Selection Will MacKenzie. Provincial Research Ecologist January, 2017

Outline Current Tree Species Selection Guidance Proposed Climate Change Tree Species Selection Tool (TTST)

Tree species suitability at Climate and Site scales Climate has an overarching effect on vegetation Site condition within a climatic area also profoundly effects vegetation. BEC is the tool for linking these two levels of control together. BEC is critical for successful tree species suitability guidance.

Site/Tree Sp. variability within a BGC based on topography, soils, other factors

Site variation reflected in vegetation including tree species Site relationships modelled in the edatopic grid

Tree Species Suitability Assessment By Ecologists and Silviculturalists Assess the following 3 key elements for each species in each site series: Feasibility – ecological suitability Reliability –forest health constraints Productivity – growth potential (saw log focus)

Suitability Categories Primary – ecologically acceptable with a high rating for F, R, and P - managed as a major component of the stand Secondary – ecologically acceptable but rank lower for one or more of F, R and P – managed as either a major or minor component of the stand Tertiary – ecologically acceptable – usually only suitable as a minor component of the stand

Tree species suitability reference guide (ICHmw2)

Species suitability varies by site condition within a BGC ICHmw2 species suitability by site series Driest Mesic Wettest  Site Series 102 103 104 101 110 111 112 113 114 Py 3   Pl 1 Fd 2 Lw Pw Cw Hw Sx Bl

Species distribution modelling needs to be assessed by site (BEC) Much work to down scale to site Does not address uncertainty about future climates? Predicted Lw distribution 2030 (consensus model)

Leverage Current Tree Species Suitability for Future BEC Existing species suitability by BEC site series Building new static tables for climate change not a good solution given future uncertainty and changing knowledge Propose to leverage existing reference guide knowledge by linking current BEC to climate change projected BEC If a future climate looks like a climate we know – we already know what to recommend

Future climate forecasting Its not fortune-telling! | But modelling of complex systems contains uncertainty

Multiple Plausible Climate Futures In ClimateWNA: 15 Global Circulation Models Different assumptions and modelling principles 2X Carbon Emission Scenarios Uncertain social choices on fossil carbon =30 (+1) plausible future climates.

MAT change by GCM model (2055)

MAP % change by GCM model (2055)

Is it too complicated? Currently, for any future time period we have access to 31 climate model/scenario combinations in ClimateWNA Too much info! Need to reduce the problem. Converting climates to bioclimate units (BGCs) reduces the complexity. Both CBST and TSST do this.

How do we use the projected BGC futures? One approach is to use model CONSENUS (majority vote). CURRENT CBST Approach Another is LEAST REGRETS (management agreement over all possible futures). PROPOSED for TTST

Consensus Approach Applies the most commonly predicted BGC Implies a single future climate Apply management guidance based on the single majority vote future Easily visualized in a map view

Least-regrets approach Accepts the uncertainty of future condition (but within bounds) Uses all predicted climates weighted by % model votes Looks for prescriptions that succeed through all plausible futures Diversity /risk assessment in management guidance Cannot be easily displayed in a map/hard to visualize

“Least-Regrets” species selection “The optimal strategy is the one that brings the least regret in the case that a decision is, in retrospect, wrong.” Consensus model implies a certain single climate future and a single CC target the reality is that there are multiple plausible future climates (uncertainty) Maximum Regret is complete plantation failure

Analysis approach Step 1. Predict BGCs from all GCM Step 2. Align current site series to future BGC site series Step 3. Align the current species suitability with suitability in all future site series Step 4. Calculate species suitability trajectory from current to all future site series Step 5. Apply Least-Regrets decision to adjust species suitability accounting for future climates

BECFuturesTreeSpSelection database tool to explore suitability trajectories (now programmed in R-script)

Step 1. BGC futures Predicted from 31 futures climate data for a single point using an accepted RandomForest model of BGCs Calculate the ratio of model votes for each BGC

Step 2. Align equivalent site sites in future BGCs Relative site condition is stable in climate change

Step 3. Align reference guide spp suitability Reference guide species suitability by future site series Probability of site series (BGC % x Edatopic ratio) Future suitability converted to trajectory category O=Stable I=Improving D=Declining X=unsuited A=Added

Summarize Species Suitability Trajectories

Convert trajectory weighting into application using a least regrets risk analysis Balance risk based on certainty and consequence. Retain or emphasize species with widespread stable or improved suitability Down weight/remove species with unsuited or declining suitability in many future models Consider adding or trialing species suitable in most future conditions that are not currently suitable (apply species distribution modelling to assist) Consider selectively planting species suitable only in some futures ***Stand and Landscape levels should both be given consideration

The TSST must embrace Continuous Improvement (Science, Tool, and Policy) Climate change guidance uses many models (and models of models) All models will be improved over time ClimateBC surface/GCM models Analysis of the climate data Improved mapping of BGCs Species suitability assessment Tool needs to be allow update of models but consistent delivery of guidance.

Deliver TSST through a web map interface Plan to deliver tree species selection through a publicly accessible web map tool The NE WaterTool (NEWT) and Cariboo - Watertool are examples of the approach of consolidating lots of information to assist decision-makers TSST possibly available by Fall of 2017. Platform to integrate other silviculture information into decision making.

Further TSST development Ecologists review and update: information gaps on classificaiton and tree species suitability (BEC upgrades) review of climate models and analysis decisions to make (base time period, risk analysis) Build TSST platform for operational application Convert analysis into web tool environment

END