Estimating the Economic Value of a Major Seismic Event Mitigation Program Using Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Model Presented by Brian Gregor Becky Knudson.

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Presentation transcript:

Estimating the Economic Value of a Major Seismic Event Mitigation Program Using Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Model Presented by Brian Gregor Becky Knudson & Alex Bettinardi, Authors TRB 93rd Annual Meeting January 15, 2014

Photo: The Oregonian/1964 Following quote from Jan 18, 2010 Oregon Live Article on “Is Oregon Ready for the Big Quake? Experts Don’t Think So” A Ford rests against a home in Seaside in March of 1964 after a tsunami struck the Oregon coast. The tidal wave was the result of the Good Friday Earthquake in Alaska. Five people were killed by the wall of water. Scientists predict a much larger quake could someday strike again off the Oregon coast, causing even more damage, and authorities fear residents here aren't prepared.

Oregon Lifelines Study

Oregon Highway Seismic Options

TOOL: Oregon Statewide Integrated Model Economy Person travel Auto/carpool Transit Passenger rail Commercial travel Truck Rail Water Population

State Geography About 87 % of State Population is Located West of the Oregon Cascades Mountain Range About 86% of Statewide Economic Production is Located West of the Oregon Cascades Mountain Range

Model Network Failures and Repair Schedule After Major Seismic Event

Major Seismic Event No Mitigation: Isolated Areas Total economic loss: $350B (2011 dollars)

Isolated Zones: Stage 1 Scenario Reduce economic loss by $35B (2011 dollars)

Isolated Zones: Stage 1 & 2 Scenario Reduce economic loss by $55B (2011 dollars)

Isolated Zones: Full Seismic Program Reduce economic loss by $84B (2011 dollars)

Is it Worth it? Worst Case Scenario Stage 1 Program Stage 1&2 Program Full Program Economic Losses Avoided $ 0 $34.0 B $55.0 B $84.0 B Program Cost $ 0.9 B $ 1.5 B $ 1.8 B Benefit/Cost 37 36 46 Weighted B/C 12% chance of event 4 5

Summary Statewide Integrated Model Evaluate return on investment of different options Demonstrate impacts of damaged transportation system on regions of state Plan for events associated with uncertainty I-84 Sandy River Bridge I-84 Sandy River Bridge I-5 Willamette River Bridge (Eugene)

For More Information Contact: Becky Knudson rebecca. a. knudson@odot For More Information Contact: Becky Knudson rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us Alex Bettinardi alexander.o.bettinardi@odot.state.or.us