Strategic Team Decision Making Florida Reliability Coordinating Presented to the: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council

The Challenge of Decision Making Multiple Players Vague Goals Dynamic Settings High Task Loading Time Stress Uncertainty Organizational Factors High Stakes

Human Error

SKILL-BASED PERFORMANCE LEVEL The performance of highly routine activities in familiar circumstances (i.e., performing a routine task). Performance is governed by stored patterns of preprogrammed (trained or practiced) instructions.

RULE-BASED PERFORMANCE LEVEL Handling familiar problems in which solutions are governed by stored rules of the type if (state) then (diagnosis) or if (state) then (course of action). Performance is governed by stored rules that are accumulated through experience and learning.

KNOWLEDGE-BASED PERFORMANCE LEVEL Comes into play in unique situations for which actions must be planned on-line, using conscious analytical processes and stored knowledge. Performance relies on our ability to analyze with no preprogrammed instructions or rules.

Human Error – Failure of intentions to achieve intended results Omit Key Action Repeat Action Jump Ahead Forget Intention Wrong Object Percep. Confusion Slips or Lapses Skill-Based Error UNINTENDED ACTION Mistakes: actions succeed, plan inadequate Violations: deviation from procedures or rules Misclassify Event Locking In Ignoring Signs Info Overload Rule Strength YOUR INTENTIONS Rule-Based Error Knowledge-Based Error Incomplete Information Incorrect Information Wrong Attention Availability Bias Over Confidence INTENDED ACTION

Recognition-Primed Decision Making

Recognition-Primed Decision Model Situation Cues generates to affect the Mental Models using your Mental Simulation which you assess by Patterns that let you recognize Action Scripts that activate Adapted from Recognition-Primed Decisions Model in Gary Klein’s, Sources of Power, The MIT Press, 1998

Why We Struggle With Decisions A lack of experience with the situation Not recognizing anomalies in a situation Not mentally simulating a course of action Not prioritizing cues to avoid high workload Not developing expectancies Not identifying plausible goals Not anticipating how a course of action could run into difficulties Acute stressors Time pressure Uncertainty High workload Tendency to explain away early signs of problems

Ways in Which Errors May Occur Situation Assessment Errors Develop incorrect interpretation of the situation Cues misinterpreted, misdiagnosed, or ignored Risk levels misassessed; time available misjudged Situation models not updated Course of Action Errors Appropriate response not retrieved from memory Inappropriate rule applied to situation Options not considered; consequences not evaluated Relative strength of competing goals

Major Contributors to Decision Errors Continuing with the original plan of action (in the face of cues that suggest changing the plan) Ambiguity (cues may not be recognized) Organizational factors (emphasis on productivity) Social factors (real men don’t admit ignorance) Underestimating risk (based on success in the past) Consequences not anticipated (projecting future) Lack of information (poor system design or poor communications) Unconscious attempt to make available evidence fit a preconceived scenario Lack of knowledge (lack of familiarity)

Ways to Avoid Common Errors Situation Assessment Errors Update your models (situation awareness) Keep entire team updated (alignment) Voice and resolve conflicts Course of Action Errors Fight recency bias Do mental simulation Seek other’s input

“It’s not what you don’t know that can hurt you, it’s what you do know that ain’t so!”

What Is Important? Your technical skills and knowledge Your individual teamwork skills How you work together as a team How you make decisions as a team How you think as a team

Collective Consciousness THE TEAM MIND Sub-Consciousness Collective Consciousness Adapted from Cognitive Processes of the Team Mind by M. Thordsen and G. Klein, Klein Associates Inc., IEEE Transactions, 1989

Increase the Level of Collective Consciousness THE TEAM MIND GOAL: Increase the Level of Collective Consciousness Adapted from Cognitive Processes of the Team Mind by M. Thordsen and G. Klein, Klein Associates Inc., IEEE Transactions, 1989

Team Out of Alignment Confusion Different Picture Same Picture – Different Interpretation Missing Cues Misinterpreted Cues

Aligned Team Situation Main Effort Course of Action

The Team Decision-Making Skills Leader’s Intent Conflict Resolution Information Exchange Questioning Creating Understanding Adaptability • Managing Stress Situation Awareness Management

Situation Awareness Bubble Accurate Perception of: What Is Happening SA Why It’s Happening What might Happen

Situation Awareness Where is this Warning Light? CAUTION S.A. at Risk

Red Flags/Traps to Losing Situation Awareness Crew preoccupation with minor problems. Disparity between plan and actual situation. Failure to resolve ambiguities. A feeling of contentment or satisfaction (complacency). Failure to communicate leader’s intent and plans. Failure to set priorities. Inadequate monitoring. Inadequate leadership - no one standing back monitoring the state/progress of the event and crew.