Current Activity of WMO LC-LRFMME WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Current Activity of WMO LC-LRFMME WMO LC-LRFMME Team

Contents 1 2 3 4 5 Background Goals Activities Products Other activities 1 of WMO LC-LRFMME 2 of WMO LC-LRFMME 3 of WMO LC-LRFMME 4 of WMO LC-LRFMME 5 of WMO LC-LRFMME

Background of WMO LC-LRFMME Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble RCOF: Regional Climate Outlook Forum NMHS: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service APCC: APEC Climate Center GPC: Global Producing Centres RCC: WMO Regional Climate Center “CONDUIT”

Background of WMO LC-LRFMME Why LRFMME? GPC RCC GPC RCC GPC GPC • • • • • • GPC LRF model forecasts have been under-utilized due to the proliferation of standards. It would be quite useful if GPCs could share their forecasts with others. Linkage among GPCs and other organizations including NMHSs, RCCs and RCOFs is needed to ensure wider and more effective use of LRF. To use outputs more widely and effectively, we need linkage between GPCs and users. GPCs do recognize the usefulness of MME approach for long-range predictions. Seasonal and long-range prediction skills are more likely to improve if the Lead Centre for LRF MME combines the forecasts from the many GPCs. Improved skill will likely contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as to better socio-economic planning.  If many GPCs’ products are combined by Lead Centre for LRF MME , seasonal and long-range prediction will be better than now and will contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, and contribute to better socio-economic planning that accounts for variable climatic conditions by fully using GPCs’s products. NMHS GPC NMHS “LINKAGE”

Background of WMO LC-LRFMME 12 GPCs

Background of WMO LC-LRFMME WMO GPC meeting (October, Korea) - KMA suggested the need of LC-LRFMME. 2005 WMO CCL meeting (November, China) - KMA presented the need for establishing LC-LRFMME. The joint ET of DPFS agreed needs of Lead Center(s) for collection of globally available LRF to build MMEs (April, England). 2006 KMA, jointly with NCEP, completed submission of Lead Center application form to the WMO (September). WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November, Korea) - The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME. 2007 LC-LRFMME established the data exchange system (June). WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September, Korea) - Refining needs for and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April, China). - Redefining the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME 2008 WMO CBS-XIV (April, Croatia) - LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed. 2009

Goals of WMO LC-LRFMME Providing a conduit for sharing the model data for long-term climate predictions Developing a well-calibrated MME system for mitigating the adverse impact of unfavorable climate conditions Maximizing the benefit from favorable climate conditions Providing high-quality climate prediction products Developing advanced climate prediction technology

Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Redistributing digital forecast data Generating GPCs forecasts in a standard format Displaying a standardized set of Lead Centre products GPC Forecast data GPC Forecast data ••• GPC Forecast data Maintaining a repository of documentation

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Digital products Graphical products

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Membership Grades & Access Grade A (GPCs) :- Upload & Download Digital data(limited) - Download Image plots Grade B (NMHSs, RCCs) : - Download Digital data(limited) & Image plots Grade C (Others) : - Image plots

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Digital products Graphical products

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Digital products Graphical products Individual forecast Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast: Map types Rectangular Time Series Stereographic All Map Consistency Map SST Plume

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast: Period

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast: GPCs

Arbitrary Region : Africa Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast: Regions Global Australia East Asia North America Russia South America South Asia Arbitrary Region : Africa

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast: Parameters 500hPa GPH 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME DMME: Simple Composite Map

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME DMME: Regular Multiple Regression

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME DMME: Singular Value Decomposition

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble

Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update Objective of GSCU A new Initiative for Consensus-Based Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of Seasonal Climate of the World To provide the world community with an expert consensus on the state of the global climate with an outlook for the upcoming season along with information on robustness of the available forecast signals.

Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update Objective of GSCU To strengthen international collaboration and information flow between global, regional and national level operational climate monitoring and prediction centres For use by RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs for assistance in preparation of regional and national climate Updates

Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update Contents of GSCU Global-scale climate monitoring (current season) Observed temperature Observed precipitation Climate anomalies and events Potential evolution of the state of the climate (coming season) Predicted mid-troposphere circulation Predicted temperature Predicted precipitation How to use the Global Seasonal Climate Update Appendices Observed large-scale sea surface temperature indices Observed large-scale surface pressure indices Predicted large-scale sea surface temperature indices Predicted variables with the two-month lead time

Korea Meteorological Administration Contact Information Thank you! For more Information, Please contact Korea Meteorological Administration 45 Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu Seoul 156-720 Republic of KOREA Tel: +82-2-2181-0486 Fax: +82-2-2181-0489 APEC Climate Center 12 Centum 7-ro Haeundae-gu Busan 612-020 Republic of Korea Tel: +82-51-745-3991 Fax: +82-51-745-3999 E-mail : lc_lrfmme@korea.kr Website : http://www.wmolc.org