Will Developing Countries Replace U.S Agriculture?

Corn

Soybeans

HRS Wheat

HRW Wheat 2018 Harvest Bid $4.90 - $0.90 = $4.00

16-Jun-18 World Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year (Billion Bushels) 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3 2011 25.6 7.2 2012 24.2 25.0 6.5 2013 26.3 2014 26.8 25.9 8.0 2015 27.0 26.2 8.9 2016 27.7 27.1 9.4 2017 27.4 9.7 7-YR Avg. 25.7 7.7 -100m even -800m +700m +900m +800m +600m +300m +2.4 b

World Harvested Acres

World Harvested Acres, Production and Yield (million acres) Yield Bu/Ac Production Billion Bu.

U.S. Percentage of World Production

Wheat Production: Select Countries Russia U.S. Australia Ukraine Argentina

1987/88 Exports

2007/08 Exports

2017/18 Exports

Exports for Select Countries

Exports for Select Countries

Exports for Select Countries FSU-12 2.0 bb World Exports Increase 3.7 to 6.6 b.bu. (2.9 bb) Russia 1.2 bb EU-28 0.5 bb

KC Monthly Price Chart

16-Jun-18 U.S. Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year Okla. Price (Billion Bushels) HRW 2010 2.21 2.42 .862 $5.70 2011 2.00 2.23 .743 $7.24 2012 2.25 2.41 .718 $7.77 2013 2.14 2.43 .590 $6.87 2014 2.03 2.02 .752 $5.99 2015 2.06 1.95 .976 $4.89 2016 2.31 2.22 1.180 $3.90 2017 1.74 0.933 $4.60 7-YR Avg. 2.24 .829 $6.05 HRW .386 $5.06 .317 $7.05 1.00 .343 $7.45 .747 .237 $6.99 .739 .294 $6.34 .830 .446 $4.77 1.08 .555 $3.45 .758 .448 $3.80 .885 344 $5.87

16-Jun-18 World Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year Okla. Price (Billion Bushels) 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3 2011 25.6 7.2 2012 24.2 25.0 6.5 2013 26.3 2014 26.8 25.9 8.0 2015 27.0 26.2 8.9 2016 27.7 27.1 9.4 2017 27.2 9.7 7-YR Avg. 25.7 7.7 $5.06 $7.05 $7.45 $6.99 $6.34 $4.77 $3.45 $3.60

16-Jun-18 World Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year Okla. Price (Billion Bushels) 2011 25.6 7.2 2012 24.2 25.0 6.5 2013 26.3 2014 26.8 25.9 8.0 2015 27.0 26.2 8.9 2016 27.7 27.1 9.4 2017 27.4* 9.7* 2018 26.0* 27.0* 8.7* 7-YR Avg. 25.7 7.7 * Projected $7.05 $7.45 $6.99 $6.34 $4.77 $3.45 $3.60* $5.50*

KC HRW Wheat Protein (9/22/17) Basis (¢) Ordinary -2 11.00% 70 11.20% 85 11.40% 113 11.60% 123 11.80% 128 12.00% 133 12.50% 160

12.5% Protein Wheat Russia (FOB) $5.20 + $0.70 = $5.90 Houston HRW KC Mkt $4.40 + $1.60 = $6.00 Kansas City HRS $5.85 North Dakota

Price Outlook December 2017 June 2018 $3.80 Market: KC July ‘18 $5.00 - $1.00  $4.00 11.5 protein/TW $5.00 - $0.50  $4.50