TCBMs in Space: A Role for Middle Powers Fifth International Manfred Lachs Conference on Global Space Governance May 5-6, 2017 Theresa Hitchens

The Problem Increased geopolitical friction, particularly in space China, Russia, US consideration of counterspace ops – offensive and defensive “Iron Triangle” of worst-case assumptions/mirror imaging Technology demos of potential weapons capabilities China, Russia and US (others following?) Ground-based: RF jamming, directed energy, kinetic Space-based: maneuvering satellites Risks of war in space growing

The Problem, cont’d Multilateral efforts to establish voluntary norms, TCBMs moving very slowly if at all 2013 UN GGE Report on TCBMs in space “failure to launch” Little new implementation; few reports on activities COPUOS LTS Working Group best practices effort slow 2018 end date, success not guaranteed (Iran) Measures not directly at security issues Question will be implementation Code of Conduct in limbo

GGE Reccomendations GGE made recommendations in five broad categories: Enhancing the transparency of outer space activities International cooperation including capacity building Consultative measures Outreach Coordination Including a joint meeting of the 4th and 1st Committees GGE recommendations provide options for action by Middle Powers individually and jointly

Middle Power Options: GGE Implementation Establishment of contacts and focal points Including government and industry Report to UNGA/COPUOS Characterizing/socializing application of international law to space activities Manual of International Law Applicable to Military Uses (McGill/Adelaide) could be promoted @ int’l fora, supported Call a “prepcom” to prepare 1st/4th Oct. 2017 meeting

GGE Implementation, cont’d Institutionalizing UN Debris Mitigation Guidelines National laws/regulations to require Capacity-building efforts for emerging space actors Policy, legal, technical assistance Enhancing notification of on-orbit activities Planned launches and final orbital parameters Scheduled maneuvers that might create risks Uncontrolled re-entries Orbital breakups Can be institutionalized and reported unilaterally

Middle Power Options: New Ideas Promoting/supporting research on globally- accessible SSA database Contribute to sensor development, improved propagation models, harmonization, database Support for development of STM options Legal, policy, technical considerations require research Contribute expertise on safe operations of smallsats Promote international discussion via COPUOS and Track 1.5 fora

Conclusions Vacuum in leadership on space governance can be filled by Middle Power actions Australia, Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom in position to lead new efforts Political/legal expertise Technical expertise Funds for independent research Near-term and mid-term possibilities for progress

Questions? Theresa Hitchens Senior Research Scholar Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), University of Maryland Email: theresa.hitchens0@gmail.com