National Oceanography Centre, UK

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Use of ocean colour (GlobColour) data for operational oceanography Rosa Barciela, NCOF, Met Office Thanks to Matt Martin (Met Office) and.

Advertisements

Land and Water Song The Earth is all covered with ocean.

CMIP5: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

Emissions From The Oceans To The Atmosphere Deposition From The Atmosphere To The Oceans And The Interactions Between Them Tim Jickells Laboratory for.

Influence of phytoplankton size structure on ocean carbon cycling and on ocean colour Bob Brewin 1,2,3, Shubha Sathyendranath 1,3, with contributions from.

The Effects of Atmospheric Inorganic Nitrogen Deposition on Ocean Biogeochemistry Aparna Krishnamurthy, J.Keith Moore, Chao Luo, Charles S. Zender,

Assimilating SST and Ocean Colour into ocean forecasting models Rosa Barciela, NCOF, Met Office

Changes in the Southern Ocean biological export production over the period Marie-F. Racault, Corinne Le Quéré & Erik Buitenhuis.

Lesson 5: The Dead Zone Chemical Oceanography. Last class we learned about the carbon cycle What is a biogeochemical cycle? What are the primary components.

TUC, 21st October 2013 Climate change – the scientific evidence and its implications Why climate change matters to us all Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief.

Ecosystem composition and CO 2 flux variability Corinne Le Quéré Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany now at University of East Anglia/British.

Ecosystem composition and export production variability Corinne Le Quéré, Erik Buitenhuis, Christine Klaas Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany.

Lesson 4: The Biogeochemical Cycle Chemical Oceanography.

The MyOcean Concept P.Bahurel, project coordinator.

Manfredi Manizza SIO/UCSD

Stephanie Henson Harriet Cole, Claudie Beaulieu, Andrew Yool Global warming impact on phytoplankton seasonal cycles.

C A S I X Centre for observation of Air-Sea Interactions and fluXes (A NERC Centre of Excellence in Earth Observation) Nick Hardman-Mountford, Jim Aiken.

2/27/06CAB Meeting Scientific and Technical Plans for IPCC AR5 Bill Collins With input from Lawrence Buja and Jerry Meehl National Center for Atmospheric.

기후모델 : 기후변화연구의 인프라 Climate Model: Infrastructure for Climate Change Research Wonsun Park Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences Kiel, Germany KOFST Ultra.

NOAA RESEARCH EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY PHYSICAL SCIENCES DIVISION NOAA Climate Change Web Portal James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager – Impacts Model.

1 04/2003 © Crown copyright Open Ocean Modelling of the Carbon Cycle and Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes Science Element 3a of CASIX Steve Spall (Met Office)

NCOF Development Workshop 2008 Assessments of Ecosystem Models using Assimilation Techniques John Hemmings, Peter Challenor, Ian Robinson & Tom Anderson.

Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,

BGC Working Group Meeting March 2006 Update on Coupled Runs with BGC in CCSM3 Keith Lindsay, Peter Thornton & many, many others.

Ocean modelling activities in Japan (some of activities in China and Korea are included in the report) report to the CLIVAR Working Group for Ocean Model.

First results from the isopycnic ocean carbon cycle model HAMOCC & MICOM/BCM Karen Assmann, Christoph Heinze, Mats Bentsen, Helge Drange Bjerknes Centre.

WP11 highlights: introduction and overview EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 5 th Annual & Final Meeting.

Prepared for GODAE-IMBER Wshp Paris, June in brief.

N2O-Climate feedback P.Friedlingstein, L. Bopp, S. Zaehle, P. Cadule and A. Friend IPSL/LSCE.

Near real time forecasting of biogeochemistry in global GCMs Rosa Barciela, NCOF, Met Office

The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.

Uncertainties in soil and terrestrial carbon response to 20th century human CO 2 emissions J.-F. Exbrayat 1, Q. Zhang 2, A. J. Pitman 3, G. Abramowitz.

Marine Ecosystem Simulations in the Community Climate System Model

Perspectives in Computational Earth System Science an oceanographer’s view Aike Beckmann Division of Geophysics, Department of Physical Sciences

WP 11 - Biogeochemical Impacts - Kick-off meeting Nice 10 – 13/06/2008.

Ocean Biological Modeling and Assimilation of Ocean Color Data Watson Gregg NASA/GSFC/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Assimilation Objectives:

Presented by LCF Climate Science Computational End Station James B. White III (Trey) Scientific Computing National Center for Computational Sciences Oak.

Objective: I will be able to diagram and explain the biogeochemical cycles of an ecosystem. Agenda: Biogeochemical cycle notes (pg. 67) STAR pg. 66 Homework:

Partner contribution - Janine Felden EMOnet Biology2 kickoff meeting, Contribution of University of Bremen/MARUM/PANGAEA to EMODNet Biology2.

AOMIP, October 2009 Katya Popova, Andrew Yool, Yevgenii Aksenov, Andrew Coward, Beverly de Cuevas National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK Arctic.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. The Oceans and Climate Change Chapter 1 Clickers Essentials of Oceanography Eleventh Edition Alan P. Trujillo Harold V.

WP11 Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios. Objectives and deliverables To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation.

Surface Ocean – Lower Atmosphere Study

Seasonal Arctic heat budget in CMIP5 models

Climate Change Climate change scenarios of the

Catherine Senior WGCM-19, October 19th 2015

Evaluation of a scheme representing cloud inhomogeneous structure in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)

Community Earth System Model (CESM) for CMIP6

AOMIP and FAMOS are supported by the National Science Foundation

WP3: Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes

Primary productivity in five coupled physical and biological

High Latitude Biogeochemistry Frameworks for CICE/POP

Ecosystem dynamics in Arctic models: role of physical processes

Transient simulations of the last 30,000 years, within the GENIE earth-system framework D.J. Lunt (1) M.Williamson (2) A. Price (3) P.J. Valdes (1)

An Approach to Enhance Credibility of Decadal-Century Scale Arctic

RENUMERATE: Reducing numerical mixing resulting from applying tides explicitly in a global ocean model Alex Megann1 and Maria Luneva2 Project kickoff.

Some ideas for coordinated studies

Earth Climate System Model of INM RAS

Understanding and forecasting seasonal-to-decadal climate variations

CMCC in CMIP6 The CMCC Climate Model (running)

Lesson 5: The Dead Zone Chemical Oceanography

The marine perspective of Copernicus

Process oriented evaluation of coupled climate-carbon cycle models

Icarus Allen, Tom Anderson, Corinne le Quéré

Presentation transcript:

National Oceanography Centre, UK Modelling beauty contest Katya Popova National Oceanography Centre, UK 1

UK Earth System Modelling (ESM) Implementation Delivers UK contribution to CMIP6 (IPCC AR6) Core Group (MetOffice/NERC) Assemble Run Analysis

Marine Biogeochemistry UK Earth System Modelling (ESM) Implementation Delivers UK contribution to CMIP6 (IPCC AR6) Core Group (MetOffice/NERC) Assemble Run Analysis Ice Sheets/Shelves (BAS, Bristol) Atmosphere (NCAS, Met O) Land Surface (CEH) Marine Biogeochemistry (NOC, Met O) Sea-Ice (NOC,BAS, CPOM, Met O) Ocean Group

Marine Biogeochemistry UK Earth System Modelling (ESM) Implementation Delivers UK contribution to CMIP6 (IPCC AR6) Core Group (MetOffice/NERC) Assemble Run Analysis Ice Sheets/Shelves (BAS, Bristol) Atmosphere (NCAS, Met O) Land Surface (CEH) Marine Biogeochemistry (?, Met O) Sea-Ice (NOC,BAS, CPOM, Met O) Ocean Group (NOC, Met O) ?

iMARNET project National Oceanography Centre Plymouth Marine Laboratory University of East Anglia Met Office A. Yool, E. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschon, L. de Mora, C. Enright, P. Halloran, B. Sinha, I. Totterdell

iMARNET project National Oceanography Centre Plymouth Marine Laboratory University of East Anglia Met Office “Beauty contest” A. Yool, E. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschon, L. de Mora, C. Enright, P. Halloran, B. Sinha, I. Totterdell

iMARNET project “Beauty contest” To select ocean biogeochemistry for the UK Global Earth System model for the contribution to the next IPCC AR6 (~2019). Criteria: Computational efficiency (Ocean model resolution 1/4o ) Best agreement with global climatological data sets: Dissolved inorganic nitrogen Silicate Chl-a Primary production Inorganic carbon Alkalinity Minimum additional complexity: The model should be able to perform iron fertilisation experiment (Fe)

Participant biogeochemical models HadOCC Diat-HadOCC MEDUSA-2 PLANKTOM-10 + simpler siblings ERSEM

Plankton functional types HadOCC Diat-HadOCC MEDUSA-2 PlankTOM-5 PlankTOM-10 ERSEM Generic P. √ Diatoms “Large P.” Picophyto. Coccos ? N2-fixers Flagellates Phaeocystis Generic Z. Microzoo. Mesozoo. Macrozoo. Het. nanoflag. Bacteria Tracers 7 13 15 25 39 57

iMARNET benchmarking Model BGC tracers 128 (CPU s) Fraction 256 (CPUs) Physics-only 55169 - 108366 HadOCC 7 96371 1.75 160733 1.48 Diat-HadOCC 13 130102 2.36 203680 1.88 MEDUSA-2 15 150672 2.73 227153 2.10 PlankTOM-6 25 281898 5.11 381472 3.52 PlankTOM-10 39 427026 7.74 529862 4.90 ERSEM 57 571395 10.36 744285 6.87

The main conclusion: We find little evidence that more complex models evaluate better against observations and often the opposite is the case

? = Miss World Ocean Miss Arctic

Conclusion: Concluding remarks Time for metric development! Can we develop a metric which would separate upstream problems (Pacific and Atlantic) from AO problems? Time to move beyond climatology?

Arctic is not under-sampled, it is under-modelled!

IPCC AR6 timeline Ecosystem model selected: Summer 2013 Model coupled to the ESM, fine-tuned and frozen: Summer 2015 Equilibration runs, scenarios: Autumn 2017 Analysis (papers submitted): Summer 2018 AR6 - Autumn 2019