Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects Colin Daniel Apex Resource Management Solutions www.apexrms.com

“Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition” What is a Model? “Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition” Conceptual Models Development can disturb caribou 2. Quantitative Models

How Do We Build Models?

Past Integrated Modelling Projects Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities (2004) How will climate change and oil development affect the availability of caribou to villages surrounding the PCH? Modelling Effects of Development on the Bathurst Caribou Herd (2009-?) What are the potential effects of mine development and climate change on the summer range of the Bathurst herd?

Conceptual Model

Conceptual Model

Conceptual Model

Conceptual Model

Conceptual Model

Modelling Bathurst Summer Range Activities Considered: Active Mines Mineral Exploration Activities Outfitter Camps Scenarios Considered: 3 levels of development (None, Current, 2X) 3 climate scenarios (average, best, worst)

Model Integration

Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible

Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change

Models Integration

Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change Effect of climate on fall body weight

Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change Effect of climate on fall body weight Identified key data gaps: Activity budgets Summer range body condition data Biomass estimates

Why Build Quantitative Models? Integrate understanding Explicit assumptions Quantify predictions “What-if?” analysis Identify data needs and knowledge gaps Prioritize future research & monitoring Require resources & expertise!

June Diets

June a critical time for caribou Calving Peak energy and protein demands Most rapid change in plant growth Major shifts in diet Early calf survival linked to timing green-up of plants Cows and calves most sensitive to disturbance

Griffiths et al.. Russell et al.. Manseau.. Parrett..

June - Energy and protein intake Timing of peak lactation – 10 days after calving