CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP The Future of Total Primary Energy Supply in the Central-and East-European Countries 15. November 2004 Katowice, Poland The Present Situation and the Future of Total Primary Energy Supply in Estonia Estonia Dr. Ülo Rudi Tallinn University of Technology

CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland Content Why Estonia does like oil shale electricity? Which are the main problems with generation electricity from oil shale? Why we are optimistic? The future of Estonian energy supply 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Estonia likes oil shale, because Oil shale is the local fuel The oil shale sector is an employer for 10000 employees Oil shale is the cheepest energy fuel in Estonia 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

The biggest problems of the oil shale energy are The oil shale energy sector is the biggest polluter in Estonia Too low efficiency The big pollution charge The concentrated electricity production The obligation to buy RES based electricity and price quarantee for the RES electricity 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Structure of Oil Shale Use 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Capacity and Production of Power Plants 2003 Installed electrical capacity, MW Thermal Power Plants 3019 2410 Hydro Plants 3,8 3,6 Wind Plants 2,5 2,2 Electricity production, TWh 10,1580 9,36 oil shale; 0,505 natural gas; 0,033 shale oil; 0,0241 others 0,0128 0,0061 Heat production, TWh 3,9510 1,592 oil shale; 1,572 natural gas; 0,015 shale oil; 0,772 others Available electrical capacity, MW 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Gross Energy Production 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 TWh Electricity Heat 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland Electricity Balance 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 TWh Gross Production Import Consumption Export 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland Other Agriculture Households Transport Construction Industry 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland Dynamics of Average Electricity Price and Households Electricity Rates, €cent / kWh 4,876 4,282 4,065 3,522 3,247 2,435 2,109 1,892 1,572 1,029 0,812 5,688 0,709 1,010 1,898 2,141 2,461 3,132 3,259 3,694 5,036 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 01.12.92 01.11.93 01.09.94 01.01.95 01.10.95 01.06.96 01.05.97 01.01.98 01.01.99 01.01.01 01.04.02 Households Total average Source: Eesti Energia Ltd 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Emissions of Oil Shale Power Plants ths. tons 1990 2000 2003 SO2 175,89 74,44 81,61 NOx 16,31 10,32 13,53 CO2 20158,84 10866,4 11840,0 Fly Ash 154,27 47,84 21,74 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland GHG emissions, total 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 10 6 t CO2 total CO2 from energy production CO2 from industry 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland Pollution Fees, € / t 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 SO2 2,45 2,45 2,94 3,53 4,23 NOx 5,61 5,61 6,74 8,08 9,70 Solid particles 2,45 2,45 2,94 3,53 4,23 Ash storage 0,08 0,15 0,24 0,37 0,54 CO2 - - - 0,32 0,48 Source:State Gazette 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

We are optimistic, because: We have new more efficiency CFB technology The renovated oil shale boilers with CFB technology satisfy the requirements of EU directives Estonia has the enough transition period for the renovation oil shale energy 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

EU Emission’s Predictions Pollutant EU Directive 88/609/EEC EU Directive 2001/81/EEC Existing Units at Narva PP average in New Units with Fluidised Bed Boilers mg/Nm3 for new units 1990 2002 according to the test results SO2 400 200 1800 1480 24 NOx 650 170 195 100 Fly Ash 50 30 1680 1350 18 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

General Data of Estonia General Energy Data 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Population [in milion 106] 1,57 1,37 1,31 1,23 1,19 GDP 109 US$off 6,97 6,10 9,94 13,00 15,00 GDP 109 US$ ppp 13,93 12,00 18,88 25,80 29,50 GDP/c US$ppp 8,86 8,74 14,41 21,00 25,00 TPES [PJ] 416,61 190,89 210,84 211,00 TPES/c [TJ] 0,265 0,139 0,161 0,171 0,177 Electricity Supply [TWh] 17,18 8,51 8,32 9,08 11,05 Electricity/c [MWh] 10,94 6,20 6,35 7,38 9,29 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Electricity Balance, TWh 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Gross Generation [TWh] 17,18 8,51 8,32 9,08 11,05 Coal (Oil Shale) 17,02 7,72 6,56 7,22 Oil 0,16 0,03 0,04 Gas 0,56 1,20 1,30 3,20 Nuclear Renewables 0,01 0,33 0,40 Other 0,00 0,19 0,20 Imports (+) 1,48 0,37 1,19 2,00 1,90 Exports (-) 8,48 0,70 0,86 0,99 Own Use & Losses (-) 2,88 2,16 1,80 1,70 Consumption 7,30 5,42 6,91 8,42 10,26 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Installed Capacity and Peak Demand, MW Specification 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Power Stations 3425 3213 2715 2280 2680 Coal (Oil Shale) 3392 2957 2200 1700 1600 Oil 32 40 Gas 210 315 350 820 Nuclear Renewables 1,8 100 110 120 Other 1,0 12,2 60 80 Peak Demand 1800 1300 2400 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Consumption Trends of Solid Fossil Fuels 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

Estonian Energy prospective Energy Development Plan 2015 (2030)   2000 2010 Primary energy supply, PJ 189 220 – 250 Oil Shale consumption, 106 t 13.2 11 – 13 Share of renewables in energy supply, % 10.5 13 – 15 Share of renewables in production of electricity, % 0.1 5.1 Final consumption of electricity, TWh 5.4 6.5 – 8.0 Required net capacity of power plants, MW 1980 2400 – 2650 Share of CHP in generation of electricity, % 12 – 14 15 – 20 Opening of electricity market, % 10 35 – 40 Heat consumption, TWh 8.5 8 – 9 Share of CHP in heat production, % 33 Emission, share of limit for 2008, % SO2 181 90 – 100 CO2 48 50 – 55 15. November 2004 CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland