Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders

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Presentation transcript:

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders Budapest, 20-21 October 2016 Session B7: promoting comparability in international statistics Presentation #3: Trade asymmetries, consistency between National Accounts and Balance of Payments; and international comparability

Presentation Recent results on consistency in a nutshell Reasons for inconsistencies – state of findings (nontechnical) Bridging consistency and asymmetry aspects for trade in services Conclusions and outlook

Extent of discrepancies in the nonfinancial accounts Absolute discrepancies, 2010-2015, sum of EU-28 MS (EUR million) - July 2016

Impact of revisions Absolute discrepancies, sum of EU-28 MS, Oct.2015-July 2016 vintages (EUR million)

The geographical representation of inconsistencies (1) Absolute discrepancies, by EU-28 MS, mean 2010-2015 (EUR million) – July 2016

The geographical representation of inconsistencies (2) Relative discrepancies, by EU-28 MS, mean 2010-2015 (% of GDP) – July 2016

Reasons for inconsistencies – state of findings Autonomous organisational setting of national compilation processes Different access to (micro) data sources or source statistics Different estimation or extrapolation practices Rigidity of automated IT systems Different sector or geographical delineations Institutional progress in adopting statistical standards Systemic revision and vintage effects

Bridging consistency and asymmetry aspects (1) Absolute discrepancies/asymmetries, trade in services, by MS, 2014 (normalised presentation)

Bridging consistency and asymmetry aspects (2) Relative discrepancies/asymmetries, services, by MS, 2014 (normalised presentation) Percentage of total transactions in services

Impact of asymmetries Absolute asymmetries in selected countries and services components, 2014 (EUR million; % of GDP) Asymmetry = sum of absolute differences of credit and debit flows with their mirror transactions

Example: Financial services – asymmetries Germany and Luxembourg Credit EUR 3 596 mn DE < LU Debit EUR 3 139 mn LU > DE Debit EUR 1 759 mn DE > LU Credit EUR 6 367 mn LU < DE

Conclusions Comparability of both statistics in some MS very limited (especially services, primary income) Prominent intra-EU asymmetries for trade in international services Higher degree of coordination among European and worldwide counterparts Bilateral exercises not sufficient Global perspective/initiatives necessary to address issues