Online Ad Test Results July 2nd to 7th, 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

Online Ad Test Results July 2nd to 7th, 2015

Research Methodology David Binder Research conducted an online survey from July 2nd to July 7th. The sample was N=2000 battleground voters likely to vote in Democratic Primaries and Caucuses. Demographics were matched to the likely electorates of New Hampshire and Iowa. Respondents were randomly assigned into one of eight demographically similar cells of N=250 that each saw a different ad. The margin of error is 6.2% per cell. The structure of the survey was demographics, horserace, favorability, ad, ad descriptions, horserace, favorability, attributes.

Review of Ads 75 17 37 20 38 47 25 45 100 80 no yes Yes Chance Family Mom Believe Champion Everything Promise Reshuffle % Biography/Family 75 17 37 20 % Accomplishment 38 47 % Vision/Plan 25 45 100 80 Mention Hedge Funds no yes Yes Deck Stacked Middle class mean something again Thanks John Rimel

Summary Overall Strength = Overall Strength Chance 586 Mom 554 Believe 552 Reshuffle 548 Everything 542 Champion 530 Promise 518 Family 498 Overall Strength = HRC Vote + Very Favorable + Attributes (Strongly Agree) + Says What She Believes + Ad Descriptions (Strongly Agree)

Horserace, Favorability, and Speaking Believe Reshuffle Promise Mom Family Chance Champion Everything Clinton Vote Movement +4 +5 +1 Clinton Very Favorable Movement +9 +10 +7 +8 Says what she really believes (trade-off) 63 66 58 64 61 62 Says what people want to hear 26 28 34 21 27 Top two scores are highlighted for each metric Q8, 22. And if the Democratic Primary Election were today, for whom would you vote? Q10,23. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following. Q24. With which do you most agree – HRC says what she really believes or HRC says what people want to hear?

Percent Strongly Agree Attributes Percent Strongly Agree Believe Reshuffle Promise Mom Family Chance Champion Everything Is sincere 36 35 33 37 32 39 Is someone you trust 34 30 Is straightforward 38 40 Will fight for people like you 44 Is in touch with the lives of everyday Americans 31 26 29 Is someone who will get things done 41 48 45 42 Total 217 202 225 198 232 210 218 Q25-30. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about Hillary Clinton?

Percent Strongly Agree Ad Descriptions Percent Strongly Agree Believe Reshuffle Promise Mom Family Chance Champion Everything This ad is believable. 35 42 37 49 40 47 39 This information is new to me. 14 9 13 18 10 7 The ad would get my attention if I saw it on TV or online. 45 38 This ad addresses issues that are important to me. 62 58 57 61 Total 156 149 146 125 172 153 Q17-20. Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements about this ad.

Summary by Gender; Gaps seen for family/bio ads Overall Strength = HRC Vote + Very Favorable + Attributes (Strongly Agree) + Says What She Believes + Ad Descriptions (Strongly Agree) Overall Strength Men Women Chance 557 608 Mom 538 565 Believe 508 583 Reshuffle 520 567 Everything 545 Champion 473 572 Promise 477 548 Family 421 556 This ad addresses issues of importance to me, % agree: Men Women Chance 61 77 Mom 71 83 Believe 93 92 Reshuffle 88 Everything 90 Champion 84 Promise 87 Family 73

Conclusions Reactions to all of the ads were positive. All eight were effective at improving Clinton’s favorability and vote. Ads scored well on attributes and ad descriptions. Open-ends indicate that the two main concerns raised about the ads were whether Hillary can accomplish the things she sets out to, and whether she is connected to the middle class. Chance and Mom seemed particularly effective, in part because they convinced voters that she came from humble beginnings. Family also made this case, although not quite as convincingly. Reshuffle, Everything, and Promise laid out a plan for America’s middle class that resonated with many voters and scored well overall. Champion and Promise were somewhat less effective.