The Future of Fossil Carbons: Bitumen Beyond Combustion Project Axel Meisen, C.M., Ph.D., P.Eng., EurIng, FCAE, FCIC Senior Advisor to Alberta Innovates axel@meisen.ca 2017 CAE Annual Meeting, Ottawa, ON June 26, 2017

Petroleum / Oil (including Bitumen) Fossil Carbons: Types Natural Gas Petroleum / Oil (including Bitumen) Coal

Longevity of Global Proven Fossil Carbon Reserves at Current Usage Rates Years* Coal >119 Oil >44 Gas >56 * Excluding tight oil and shale gas

Canada’s Oil Sands Bitumen: Concentration 6 to 18% Reserves 170 B bbl Longevity @ 3.5 M bpd >130 years

The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone, Sheikh Zaki Yamani (1973) The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone, and TRUE or FALSE? the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil

2015 USA Refinery Runs (including bitumen) Petroleum Products: 2015 USA Refinery Runs (including bitumen) k bpd* % Combustion products 15,600 94 Gasoline 7,100 43 Distillate fuel oil 4,600 28 Kerosene 1,500 9 Other 2,400 14 Non-combustion products 870 6 Asphalts 310 2 Petrochemicals 260 300 * k bpd = thousands of barrels per day

Forces Determining Demand for Petroleum Combustion Products Climate concerns Energy conservation & efficiencies Demand Alternative energy sources Population growth Prosperity increases Demand

Change in Demand for Petroleum Combustion Products by Year 2030 No change Don’t know Up Down A B C D

Strategy Identify major non-combustion products obtainable from oil sands Functionally and price competitive Large-scale: >100,000 bpd bitumen per product category; >500,000 bpd in aggregate Bitumen Beyond Combustion (BBC) Project

Mind Map for Non-Combustion Products Made from Oil Sands Concept based on work of the Bowman Centre for Sustainable Energy

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Asphalts Markets: Roads Infrastructure Specific Issues: Performance Long-range transport Long-term storage

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Carbon Fibres and Composites Markets: Steel replacement Wood composites Specific Issues: Process technologies Certification Flammability

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Graphenes Markets: Steel replacement Copper replacement Specific Issues: Knowledge gaps Lack of production Process technologies

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Polyurethanes Markets: Construction Transportation Consumer goods Specific Issues: Feedstocks Process technologies Flammability

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Polycarbonates Markets: Transportation Construction Specific Issues: Hardness Certification Process technologies

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Controlled-release Fertilizers Markets: Agriculture Horticulture Specific Issues: Proven effectiveness Process technologies

BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Additive Manufacturing Markets: Custom manufacture Prototyping Mold manufacture Specific Issues: Materials Large scale uses

Potential 2030 Markets - Expressed as Bitumen Demand (Subject to key assumptions) Global Bitumen Demand (k bpd) Asphalts 20,400 Carbon Fibres: Current uses 30 Steel replacement 34,600 Vehicle use 1,100 Wood composites 1,650 Graphene 750?? Polyurethane 500 Polycarbonate 120 Controlled release fertilizers 100 Additive manufacturing ???

Principal Conclusions BBC Phase 1 Project: Principal Conclusions The global market potential for non-combustion products from oil sands is sound Converting oil sands constituents into non-combustion products is complex and energy intensive

with partners from industry and government Next Step: BBC Project Phase 2 A detailed study on the ‘Techno-economic Potential of Oil Sands Constituents for Non-Combustion Products’ sponsored by with partners from industry and government

The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone, Sheikh Zaki Yamani (1973) The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone, Stone-use changed from tools to materials and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil Oil-use will likely change towards materials and food

Acknowledgement Some images in this presentation were taken from publicly available websites, with their use being gratefully acknowledged and restricted to this presentation Disclaimer The contents of this presentation resulted from the presenter’s professional work and should not be construed as representing the views or positions of organizations with which he is collaborating