A New Approach to Emerging Technology September 24, 2014

What is a resource assessment? Estimate of available, cost-effective efficiency measures left to be acquired Uses utility load and customer forecasts, avoided costs, fuel splits, measure data, etc. Energy Trust uses for utility IRP work & strategic plan

Methodology: Measure Definition Include conventional and emerging technologies Define measures incrementally Factor in near-term codes & standards Allow emerging technologies to improve over time Use risk factors to hedge against uncertainty

Requires new/changed business model Start-up, or small manufacturer ET Risk Factor Risk Category 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% Market Risk (25% weighting) High Risk: Requires new/changed business model Start-up, or small manufacturer Significant changes to infrastructure Requires training of contractors. Consumer acceptance barriers exist. Low Risk: Trained contractors Established business models Already in U.S. Market Manufacturer committed to commercialization Technical Risk High Risk: Prototype in first field tests. A single or unknown approach Low volume manufacturer. Limited experience New product with broad commercial appeal Proven technology in different application or different region Low Risk: Proven technology in target application. Multiple potentially viable approaches. Data Source Risk (50% weighting) High Risk: Based only on manufacturer claims Manufacturer case studies Engineering assessment or lab test Third party case study (real world installation) Low Risk: Evaluation results or multiple third party case studies Consider the market, the technology, and the availability of good data when evaluating the risk factors

Risk Considerations How developed is the market? (25%) Are there manufacturers? Is the public likely to accept the product? Is there a contractor/installer network?

Risk Considerations Is the technology proven? (25%) Single lab/field tests Small volume manufacturer New product but broad appeal Proven technology, but different market or application Proven technology in target application

Risk Considerations How confident are we in the data? (50%) Manufacturer’s claims/case studies Lab/field test 3rd party lab/field test Multiple tests or evaluations

Methodology: Emerging Technology End result: The estimate for any given emerging technology is not accurate Taken as a whole, provides a reasonably conservative estimate of what is possible This is not that different from the resource assessment as a whole: lots of assumptions on lots of measures, try to be as accurate as possible, but the more specific you get in looking at one number, the more likely there is something off. Taken as a whole, however, the model provides a reasonable estimate.

Results

Room for Improvement Are we evaluating the right risks? Are the risk factors appropriately scaled? Include more emerging technologies

Emerging Technologies   HVAC/Weatherization DHW Lighting Etc. Residential Windows Absorption Gas HPWH LED Specialty Lights Smart Devices/Home Automation Ceiling Insulation CO2 HPWH LED General Purpose Wall Insulation Advanced Solar Water Heat Advanced Ducted HP Advanced Gas Furnace Commercial Energy Recovery Ventilator Gas-fired Heat Pump Water Heater (improving) LED Advance Refrigeration Controls Advanced Ventilation Controls AC Heat Recovery, HW (improving) LED Troffer Supermarket Max Tech Refrigeration Gas-fired Heat Pump (improving) Exterior LED VIP Wall Insulation (improving) High Bay LED Highly Insulated Windows Smart/Dynamic Windows Advanced RTU A/C Hybrid Evaporative Cooler Industrial Gas-fired HP Water Heater Switched Reluctance Motors

Thank You Ted Light, Sr. Planning Project Manager ted.light@energytrust.org 503.445.7643